SRA-Europe Conference 2021 (SRAE 2021)
Espoo, Finland, June 13-16, 2021
Mon, 14 Jun -10:00 - 10:35
- Opening
Mon, 14 Jun -10:35 - 11:10
Keynote - Undesirable Psychological Influences on Understanding, Communicating & Deciding about Risks
Mon, 14 Jun -11:15 - 12:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - COVID and Pandemics 1

Stigmatization of Chinese and Asian-looking people during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany
Julia Koller, Karoline Villinger, Nadine Lages, Isabel Brünecke, Joke Debbeler, Kai Engel, Sofia Grieble, Peer Homann, Robin Kaufmann, Kim Koppe, Hannah Oppenheimer, Vanessa-Christin Radtke, Sarah Rogula, Johanna Stähler, Britta Renner, Harald Schupp
University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany
The outbreak and global spread of COVID-19 was accompanied by an increase in reports of stigmatization of Chinese and Asian-looking people. The present study investigated whether stigmatization intensifies in times of greater infectious disease threat. As part of the “EUCLID” project (, a total of 5,011 persons from Germany were surveyed via an online-questionnaire between February 2 and April 3, 2020, covering the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic over three time periods defined by critical events. Stigmatization was examined across three topics: personal proximity, air travel, and medical measures upon arrival from China. There was no evidence for an increase in the stigmatization of Chinese and Asian-looking people. The present findings provide good news in that participants showed an adaptive response to the infectious disease threat rather than displaying increased stigmatization.
Keywords: stigmatization,

Determinants of social care organisations’ abilities to provide help in times of COVID-19 pandemic
Kristi Nero 1, Kati Orru 1, Abriel Schieffelers 2, Tor-Olav Nævestad 3, Merja Airola 4, Austeja Kazemekaityte 5, Lucia Savadori 5, Daniel De Los Rios Perez 6, Johanna Ludvigsen 3
1 University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
2 The Salvation Army, Brussels, Belgium
3 Institute of Transport Economics, Oslo, Norway
4 VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd, Espoo, Finland
5 University of Trento, Trento, Italy
6 Jönköping University, Jönköping, Sweden
The Covid-19 pandemic challenges the sustainability of the social care organisations (and those dependent on their services) when services are stopped or restricted to mitigate the spread of the virus. The aim of the study is to examine the outcomes for the social care organisations and their users in the early months (March to July 2020) of the pandemic, and the factors influencing the organisations’ abilities to successfully respond to the crisis. The study focuses on the experiences of social care organisations such as residential settings, day-centres and food banks that offer services to individuals in highly precarious situations or the homeless in nine countries: Germany, Italy, Hungary, The Netherlands, Norway, Czech Republic, Finland, Lithuania, Estonia. The study is based on 29 qualitative research interviews with managers and staff at social care organisations and document analysis. The analysis demonstrates that in the context of drastic surge in demand for services, diminishing funding, and lack of crisis plans, the dedication and creative solutions by organisations’ managers, organisational culture and intra -organisational cooperation were pivotal in maintaining the care provision. The study offers important insights in terms of potential strategies and the role of social service in health crises.
Keywords: vulnerability, resilience, social care organisations

Determinants of compliance with behavioural guidelines to reduce Covid-19 infections
Margôt Kuttschretuer, Rieke Schmees
University of Twente, Enschede, Netherlands
To combat the Covid-19 pandemic, authorities in many European countries have set behavioural guidelines to reduce the number of infections and to avoid the intensive care units of hospitals to be run over by the sheer quantity of Covid-19 patients. The question is what motivates people, especially young people, to comply with those guidelines. The protection motivation theory has often been used to understand what motivates people to engage in preventive behaviour. The question is whether this model also holds for Covid-19 as the guidelines not only ask for compliance with behaviour that has predominantly individual implications such as washing hands and wearing a mouth cap, but also for behaviour that has social implications (social distancing). An additional question is what the role of age is in predicting preventive behaviour.

A survey was carried out (n=275). Multiple regression analysis and structural equation modelling will be used to analyze the data. Preliminary results show that compliance behaviour is significantly positively related to risk perception, fear and coping perception, and significantly negatively to perceived response costs.

Results will be presented and implications for risk communication practice will be discussed.

Keywords: Covid-19, Protection motivation theory, preventive behaviour, compliance with guidelines
Mon, 14 Jun -11:15 - 12:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Computational Methods

Pricing of maintenance service contracts in the railway industry: Risk and profitability
Otto-Ville Sormunen, Anastasia Lisitsyn
VR FleetCare, Helsinki, Finland
The trend in the previous decades in the European railway industry has been towards the privatization of railways and rolling stock operators. This has also led to an increase in outsourcing train maintenance to external service providers. Previously maintenance was done more in internal divisions such as is the case with Finland’s biggest operator VR. While the preventive maintenance of rolling stock can be somewhat fixed over the lifespan of rolling stock the corrective maintenance due to trains suffering from breakdowns is inherently a stochastic process. For third-party maintenance, service providers must sign a contract that typically is for a fixed period. This means that either the owner or the maintenance service providers are exposed to financial risk due to varying number and costs of corrective maintenance. Many contracts also include penalties if rolling stock is not repaired in time which can happen due to bottlenecks in resources, global shortages of various parts, etc., which compounds the uncertainty.

We summarize various methods for pricing maintenance contrasts and applies a risk- based Monte Carlo simulation model on a case study of the largest railway operator in Finland. Both the aleatory and epistemic uncertainty are examined in order to model the risk of financial loss for the maintenance service provider under a full service contract. Historical data is used to model the costs and risks associated with preventive and corrective maintenance as well as penalties due to delayed maintenance. The findings indicate that under a fixed expected profit margin there is a significant probability of the maintenance service provider making a loss over the contract period. This probability can be modelled as a function of the expected profit.

The findings are important as the industry is moving towards more maintenance being performed under contract and due to the inherent risk caused by aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in corrective maintenance. These risks are not apparent to decision- makers if expected or mean values are utilized and the effect of potential penalties requires more sophisticated analytical methods to be used. In case of many smaller contracts risk of loss of a single contract might not have a significant impact on any company and expected values can be used. However, in the railway industry many contracts are big and long. One example is the case with the Helsinki region commuter trains and in these cases knowledge of risk is paramount to well-informed decision-making.

Keywords: pricing, financial risk, railways

A Dynamic Optimization Model for Maintenance Scheduling of a Multi-Component System
Jussi Leppinen 1, Antti Punkka 1, Tommi Ekholm 2
1 Systems Analysis Laboratory, Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis, Aalto University School of Science, Espoo, Finland
2 Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Technical systems typically consist of several components, which require maintenance for the system to operate reliably. The cost of maintaining a set of components is not necessarily additive over some component-specific maintenance costs, but rather depends on the specific maintenance action portfolio of components to be maintained. Moreover, not all such portfolios are necessarily feasible, as structural dependencies or requirements set on the system’s reliability can make some portfolios infeasible. Previous attempts on solving cost-minimizing maintenance scheduling policies under such economic and structural dependencies have been based on simulating outcomes of pre-defined maintenance policies or solving a dynamic programming problem with a rolling horizon approach – both of which take system reliability constraints poorly into account.

We develop a method to solve optimal maintenance scheduling policy with economic and structural dependences. Specifically, we assume that maintaining a set of components can create cost savings and that components’ maintenance may require simultaneous maintenance of some other component(s). We model component failure times with probability distributions and assume that they are all critical and can only be replaced by new ones at pre-defined maintenance instances. The maintenance scheduling problem is modeled as a discrete time Markov decision process, in which the state of the system depends on the components’ maintenance history and the failure state of the system. System-level risk is managed by introducing a reliability threshold, which ensures that the system operates at least with a specified probability until the next maintenance instance. The optimal long-term maintenance scheduling policy is solved with policy-iteration, which also provides optimal maintenance decisions in component failure occasions.

We illustrate the model by applying it to a 4-component ground transportation equipment with different maintenance intervals and reliability thresholds. Comparison of our results to simple heuristic opportunistic policies suggests that our approach has potential in creating cost savings across different maintenance intervals and reliability thresholds as well as for providing decision support for specification of maintenance intervals and reliability thresholds.

Keywords: Maintenance scheduling, multi-component system, Markov decision process, policy-iteration

A practical assessment of risk-averse approaches in production lot-sizing problems
Fabricio Oliveira 1, Douglas Alem 2, Miguel Carrión Ruiz Peinado 3
1 Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
2 Management Science and Business Economics University of Edinburgh Business School, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
3 Department of Electrical Engineering Universidad de Castilla - La Mancha, Toledo, Spain
This study presents an empirical assessment of four state-of-the-art risk-averse approaches to deal with the capacitated lot-sizing problem under stochastic demand. We analyse two mean-risk models based on the semideviation and on the conditional value-at-risk risk measures, and alternate first and second-order stochastic dominance approaches. The extensive computational experiments based on different instances characteristics and on a case-study suggest that CVaR exhibits a good trade-off between risk and performance, followed by the semideviation and first-order stochastic dominance approach. For all approaches, enforcing risk-aversion helps to reduce the cost-standard deviation substantially, which is usually accomplished via increasing production rates. Overall, we can say that very risk-averse decision-makers would be willing to pay an increased price to have a much less risky solution given by CVaR. In less risk-averse settings, though, semideviation and first-order stochastic dominance can be appealing alternatives to provide significantly more stable production planning costs with a marginal increase of the expected costs.
Keywords: lot-sizing, two-stage stochastic programming, risk-aversion
Mon, 14 Jun -11:15 - 12:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Risk and Ethics

When ethics is a technical matter: Engineers’ strategic appeal to ethical considerations in advocating for system integrity
Sarah Maslen 1, Jan Hayes 2, Sarah Holdsworth 2, Orana Sandri 2
1 Faculty of Business, Government and Law, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australia
2 School of Property, Construction and Project Management, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia
Situated in critiques of the “moral muteness” of technical rationality, we examine concepts of ethics and the avoidance of ethical language among Australian pipeline engineers. We identify the risk domains in which they saw ethics as operating, including public safety, environmental protection, sustainability, commercial probity, and modern slavery. Particularly with respect to ethical matters that bear on public safety, in the course of design and operational activities, engineers principally advocated for action using technical language, avoiding reference to potential consequences such as death or destruction of property. Within their organizations, they saw themselves as occupying a technical “line of defense” in management of risk. We argue that this focus on technical language is action-oriented. Ethics tells practitioners of unacceptable outcomes, but it does not guide them in what they need to do to avoid that outcome in practice. We observed some cases where engineers had not made the connection between their role and ethics in the sense of public safety. We argue that muteness on ethical matters can obscure the nature of the risk where technical advice is being taken on by non-technical actors, and where technical actors themselves do not have a clear sense of their public safety obligations.
Keywords: engineering ethics; engineering design; moral cognition; risk management

Effects of decision way under the veil of ignorance on public acceptance of site for radioactive waste: A scenario experiment
Susumu Ohnuma 1, Miki Yokoyama 1, 2
1 Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
2 Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Tokyo, Japan
This study examines the effect of the decision way involving under the veil of ignorance on public acceptance of a geological disposal site for high-level radioactive waste (HLW).

The site selection for geological disposal of HLW in Japan has not proceeded, in which the candidate sites are to be selected by application of municipalities or proposal of the government. The fair decision process is crucial for gaining public acceptance, particularly when the inequitable distribution is inevitable.

When considering public acceptance, we differentiate three decision stages: acceptance of the general policy, of the decision way, and of the location if it becomes a candidate site. This study focuses on the stage of deciding because the decision way is closely related to the fairness of the decision process. Prior to deciding the location, acceptance of a decision way is required. Therefore, it is essential whether people can evaluate the decision procedure as fair at the stage of deciding the decision way as a fair procedure is closely related to the public acceptance.

As conflicts are more likely to occur if the victims and beneficiaries are given beforehand, we propose to make a prior consent of a decision way under the situation that anyone can be a party involved as a candidate, i.e., under the veil of ignorance. We hypothesize that the decision way with the veil of ignorance is evaluated as fairer and more acceptable than the current decision way, which leads to the acceptance of the location.

We conducted a web-based scenario experiment to examine the effects of the decision process, manipulating the decision way: the veil of ignorance condition, anyone could be selected as a candidate site or the proposal by the government condition. We obtained a total of 864 valid responses.

The results revealed that procedural fairness and acceptance were evaluated higher in the veil of ignorance condition than the government proposal condition at the stages of both deciding the decision ways and the location. Acceptance of the decision way was associated with the acceptance of the location more in the veil of ignorance condition, while the effects of the procedural fairness on the acceptance were constant between the conditions in each stage. The significance of the veil of ignorance as a measure of installing a fair procedure was discussed.

Keywords: public acceptance, procedural fairness, the veil of ignorance, geological disposal for high-level radioactive waste
Mon, 14 Jun -11:15 - 12:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Governance and Risks 1

Dust in the workplace: the case of chromium 6. Investigation into standards and safe working conditions
Ric van Poll
RIVM: National Institute for Public health and the Environment, Bilthoven, Netherlands
Working safely with hazardous substances, including chromium-6, is not always obvious. Employees at five former defense locations (POMS locations) have worked unsafe with chromium-6 and some may have fallen ill as a result. A group of participants in a reintegration project in Tilburg (tROM) also worked unsafe with chromium-6 when doing sanding work on old train sets. Health and safety legislation and regulations were tightened at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st century, but their application lagged behind.We investigated these two chromium-6 cases, among others, to answer the question: which health and safety legislation and regulations applied and how were they applied at POMS and at tROM? The work at the POMS locations was carried out from 1983 to 2006, the relevant tROM project ran from 2004 to 2012. In 2014, we started an investigation into the POMS case, in 2015 we started our investigation into tROM . Both investigations were completed in 2018 and their main objective was to provide insight into the application and enforcement of laws and regulations, in particular in the field of chromium-6. The studies showed, among other things, that neither tROM nor the POMS sites were familiar with chromium-6. The health risks of chromium-6 were known within the Ministry of Defense, but not at the POMS locations and not at tROM. Since 1991, employers have had an obligation to have a risk inventory and evaluation (RI&E). However, the RI&E turned out to be a burocratic monster. The safety regulations were neither consistently observed nor enforced at POMS nor tROM. According to the supervisors of the reintegration process tROM, compliance and enforcement were in order, but participants in the process contradicted this. Furthermore, the study showed that the STOP (Substitute, Technical measures, Organisational measure, Personal protection) strategy was not followed. Participants in the tROM trajectory, for example, sanded by hand, without extraction and sometimes without (adequate) personal protective equipment.
Keywords: chromium 6, standards, working conditions

A pragmatist approach to audit practices
Jérémy Eydieux 1, 2, 3, 7, Stéphanie Tillement 4, 5, 7, Benoît Journé 6, 5, 7
1 Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France
2 CERAG, Grenoble, France
3 Grenoble INP, Grenoble, France
4 IMT Atlantique, Nantes, France
5 LEMNA, Nantes, France
6 IAE Nantes, Économie & Management, Nantes, France
7 Chaire RESOH, Nantes, France
Audits are increasingly used by risk governance as a mode of risk management (Power, 1997). They are known to be successful when auditors are both independent and competent, and to be influenced by the effects of valuations, formalization, informal interactions and vocabularies employed in the field. However, very little research clarifies how audits occur in practice from start to finish.

This paper aims at contributing to the analysis of audit practices through a study of nuclear risk governance in France. Audit dialogues, here called "technical dialogues", are based on "safety demonstrations". We propose a pragmatist approach based on Dewey's Theory of Valuation (1939) in order to investigate methods that are used by field actors to demonstrate or assess safety.

We draw from two cases, the preparation of a safety demonstration by a nuclear operator and the production of a safety assessment by the IRSN (the nuclear technical support organization in France). For each case, we carried out a document collection (e-mails, work documents, meeting reports…, 404 doc, around 10.000p. total) that we complemented with 11 interviews (18h. total). We analyzed each corpus through their intertextuality and then made a narrative analysis of the production of each official document.

The overall value of our results is that they shed light on the "technical dialogue", a little-known risk governance device, through a detailed description of field actors conducts. Surprisingly, they show that the technical dialogue is not a place for exchanges of certainties and justifications, but of doubts and beliefs. In this context, we identify several features of the technical dialogue. First, auditor and auditee manage beliefs and doubts differently depending on their own situations and interests. But secondly, both apply the same work categories, related to (1) managing attention paid to document reading (2) use of the document to solve a problem and (3) collection of written resources. Finally, we identify the role of this work in the (different) management of beliefs and doubts.

These results invite to understand the classical factors of audit practices from their practical consequences, getting activity as a starting point and aiming at understanding how both auditor and auditee experience the dialogue. The paper calls more broadly for a renewal of risk governance, paying attention to how actors manage doubts and beliefs. Suggestion is made to practitioners to highlight the importance of dialogue, of doubt production, and of sizing of bureaucratic work.

Keywords: Audit practices, Risk governance, Pragmatist philosophy

Comparative analysis of risk regulation in the chemical industry: A French-Australian case study
Scarlett TANNOUS 1, Jan HAYES 2, Myriam MERAD 1
1 LAMSADE, Paris Dauphine University, 75016 Paris, France
2 Construction Management, RMIT University, Melbourne VIC 3000, Australia
In France, the governance of industrial risks has been subject to several evolution influenced by (1) the lessons learned from accidents both at national (e.g., AZF in 2003 and Lubrizol in 2019) and international levels (e.g., the Seveso accident in 1975); (2) new modes of interaction between national and regional actors; (3) links between the public and private spheres; and (4) reforms of control systems (e.g., obligation of objectives and obligation of means). Additionally, as part of the European Union (EU), the supranational regulatory system is seen as more resistant to neoliberal governmentality, pressure on industry interests, and “risk colonisation” resulting in an autonomy from institutional interests and political ideology.

In Australia, as a Commonwealth, regulatory requirements for so called Major Hazard Facilities (MHF) were reworked substantially after the Longford fire and the resultant national model legislation was essentially adopted in all states. It is based on a duty of care approach with chemical plant operators required to ‘make the case’ that risk to workers and the public is reduced to a level that is as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP).

This study aims to compare safety regulations for hazardous chemical plants in France and Australia to identify both commonly established principles and points of difference. It is proven that cultural differences, aside from the socio-political factors, have impact on regulations. Hence, the research question scrutinizes the evolution of various regulatory bodies’ different perspectives on the use of risk regulations. The method relies on a (1) systematic review of the regulatory literature engaging: (i) the Codes of Environment and Public Health and the Bachelot Law of 30th July 2003, (ii) the Council of Australian Governments; and on (2) a comparative analysis of industrial risk regulation systems in France and Australia. This comparison will include analyses of (a) administrative systems supporting public policies at the territorial and regional levels, (b) the nature of the links between "regulators and legislators", " industries and territories" and "regulatory objects" (e.g., classified installations); and (c) the relationship between hard and soft law. Thus, comparison factors include the overarching duty imposed on facility operators, risk tolerability criteria, safety report/case requirements, facility licencing, links to land use planning, requirements for community engagement, inspection requirements and enforcement provisions. The results of this transcontinental study are expected to serve risk regulators and policymakers to better understand and frame more adapted risk prevention and crisis management strategies.

Keywords: French risk regulation, Australian risk regulation, comparative policy analyses, industrial risks.
Mon, 14 Jun -11:15 - 12:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Risk Perception 1

When is a threat not a threat? The interdependency of time, context and emotion on risk perception, decision-making and behaviour
Chris Bennett
King's College London, London, United Kingdom
Decision-making and behaviour in response to perceived risk from a specific threat or hazard is influenced by other aspects of a person's situation and other threats which may perceived within it. Furthermore, if the context is subject to change over time, the risk posed by a particular threat may be assessed differently if other threats in the environment assume greater importance. However, this paper argues that assessment of the risk posed by a focal threat does not have to change for the behavioural response to it to change, but may instead be prompted by a changed emotional reaction to the unchanged threat. It draws on three specific examples as evidence for this assertion and suggests that such processes can be demonstrated, not only by the behaviour of individuals, but can also be identified at group and organisational levels.

The three examples referred to in this paper all relate to the field of patient safety. The first is drawn from a single case study of individual nursing staff in an acute general hospital using mixed qualitative methods and thematic analysis. The study examined decision making and behaviour in response to a frequently experienced threat to patient care. The results showed that staff responded differently according to their feelings at each particular time. The second example, demonstrating similar processes at group level, refers to a historical incident in which city council members perceived the safety of others to be threatened by someone with a communicable disease and in which their initial, correct response was revised solely as a consequence of the anxiety engendered by adverse publicity. Finally, the paper traces the rise and fall of the patient safety issue at governmental level in the UK and suggests this may be seen as an emotional response reflecting changing public and media concern about a threat posing an unchanged degree of risk.

Thus it is argued that action in response to a recurring threat may not necessarily depend on assessment of the degree of risk posed by the threat, but on an emotional reaction which may vary at different times and under different circumstances. This under-researched phenomenon could have relevance both to the development of increased insight into processes underpinning decision-making in response to risk, and also in illuminating apparently inexplicable actions, such as inconsistent adherence to safety instructions and procedures.

Keywords: Risk perception, decision-making

The Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in West Africa in the Shadow of ‘Sorcery’: Risk Communication Failure during a Health Emergency
Syna Ouattara 1, Nikolas Århem 2
1 University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg Research Institute (GRI), Gothenburg, Sweden
2 Uppsala University, Department of Cultural Anthropology and Ethnology, Uppsala, Sweden
As was the case during earlier outbreaks in Central and East Africa of Ebola, the recent outbreak in West Africa (2013-2016), was associated by local populations with sorcery accusations on a grand scale, particularly during the initial months of the outbreak. More than during previous Ebola outbreaks, however, this time accusations were strongly directed towards the biomedical response agencies and particularly expatriates who were combatting the epidemic. There was therefore a strong resistance towards public health interventions and many of the afflicted communities perceived themselves to be, and expressed so explicitly, victims of an organized Western sorcery-conspiracy. This paper draws on anthropological fieldwork in the administrative area of N'Zérékoré, commonly called Guinée Forestière (2018) and also on interviews carried out in Conakry in 2017. It was in Guinée Forestière where the first Ebola cases surfaced and then spread to the rest of Guinea and across the borders to neighboring countries. The paper argues that the association of Ebola virus disease with sorcery accusations was partly due to the lack of understanding and communication between the involved public-health institutions and the affected communities, which in turn put the Ebola response teams at great risk and led to an increased number of Ebola virus victims among the affected the population.
Keywords: Ebola virus disease, Health Emergency, Risk communication, Sorcery , Guinea, West Africa

Crisis Communication after Earthquakes in Greece and Japan: Effects on Seismic Disaster Management
Anna Fokaefs 1, 2, Kalliopi Sapountzaki 1
1 Harokopio University of Athens, Athens, Greece
2 Institute of Gedynamics, National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece
Actual disasters reveal emergency communication structures and patterns and their successes and failures. In particular, seismic crisis events show what kind of emergency seismic information is released to the emergency managers and the general public, when, by whom and by means of what media. They show also how the specific in each case pattern of information dissemination affects the public’s emergency responses and the mode of conduct of emergency operations, like population evacuation, search and rescue, emergency sheltering etc. These are the facts referring to seismic crisis communication in a specific locality, region or country.

However, both the emergency managers and the exposed or already victimized population groups have their own views and perceptions regarding the information they need for proper reactions, best timing of release of this information and the most trustful and accessible sources and media.

The authors juxtapose and cross-examine facts and perceptions regarding seismic crisis information supply and emergency communication in Greece and Japan. Facts and evidence are obtained by reference to legal provisions about the organization of seismic emergency communication in each country case and empirical analysis of these organizations in action in recent seismic events, namely the Tohoku earthquake 2011 and Athens’ earthquakes 1999 and 2019.On the other hand perceptions of earthquake experienced and/or exposed communities and of the responsible emergency managers are obtained by means of questionnaire surveys focusing in appropriate samples in Greece. The authors suggest that cross-examination of facts and perceptions regarding seismic crisis (two-way) communication is valid not only in the same cultural and socio-political context but across different contexts as well. In this sense, perceptions of emergency managers about the seismic crisis information they need in Greece might turn to be a test for the emergency seismic information supply in Japan.

Keywords: risk perception, seismic crisis communication, seismic risk information, Greece, Japan
Mon, 14 Jun -12:45 - 14:15
Panel - COVID-19 – Lessons in Emergence
Mon, 14 Jun -14:30 - 16:00
Symposium - What works?: From bottom-up strategies and practices to top-down models and indicators for evidence-based COVID-19 risk and crisis communication

Examining Governmental COVID-19 communication among 15 different countries (Symposium presentation 1)
Dalila Antunes 1, Diotima Bertel 2, Su Anson 3, Claudia Rodrigues 1, José Palma-Oliveira 1
1 Factor Social, Lda, Caparica, Portugal
2 SYNYO GmbH, Viena, Austria
3 Trilateral Research, London, United Kingdom
Risk communication is at the core of the global response to COVID-19, with government authorities communicating key information on the risk and protective measures to their citizens. However, comparative research is required to understand the characteristics of the communication strategies and practices governments in different countries are implementing to share information on the risk and influence behaviour change of their citizens.

The research presented during this communication is part of the work developed as part of the COVINFORM project, funded by the European Commission under H2020 program. The presentation will focus on the review of governmental COVID-19 risk communication strategies and practices among fifteen different countries and its evolution along time.

For each country the analysis of governmental COVID-19 risk communication included: 1) the review and description of governmental communication strategies and practices across time and public health authorities on a national level, including strategies to influence behaviour change, and a detailed analysis of factors influencing communication practices; 2) the review of research and professional analysis to national communication on COVID-19 crisis, including the review of academic papers and grey literature; 3) main learnings, best practices and successful communications approaches in each country as well as relevant indicators that can be used to evaluate communication efficiency.

In each country extensive governmental information was gathered concerning governmental communication strategies and practices and analyses using a mix of content analysis and interpretative phenomenological analysis.

The number of countries covered by this extensive research developed by COVINFORM’s sixteen partners, significantly contributes to better understanding governmental risk communication responses across the European Union and allows significant conclusions to be drawn. The authors will present and discuss the lessons learned and guidelines and recommendations for future COVID-19 and pandemic risk communication.

Keywords: COVID-19, governmental response, risk communication, crisis communication

Responding to Pandemics: Waste management
Sílvia Luís 1, João Ferreira 2, Maria Fernandes-Jesus 3
1 Instituto Superior de Ciências Sociais e Políticas, Centro de Administração e Políticas Públicas, Universidade de Lisboa, LISBOA, Portugal
2 Iscte-IUL, Lisboa, Portugal
3 University of Sussex, Sussex, United Kingdom
During the COVID-19 outbreak, many types of additional medical and hazardous waste are being generated, including infected masks, gloves and other protective equipment. The safe handling and final disposal of this waste is, therefore, a vital element in an effective emergency response. Prior to this pandemic the control required for this type of waste would be mostly applied to hospitals and health centres. Nowadays, every household could be “producing” highly infectious medical waste, which poses great threat to public health. Effective management of biomedical and health-care waste requires the appropriate identification, collection, separation, storage, transportation, treatment and disposal, as well as important associated aspects including disinfection, personnel protection and training. Local governments must apply specific precautionary measures, operations and practices under this pandemic, not disregarding the normal protocols for household and healthcare waste management. It is necessary to adjust waste collection and allocation to the changes in waste amount and composition admitting that the existing collection system could be altered by the demand at different places and timing. In addition, proper management of healthcare waste needs to be properly categorized so it can be duly sorted, starting from source segregation, storage, collection/transport, treatment and final disposal. Although most governments have made some efforts to improve the situation, United Nations report indicates that these are inadequate to manage even the healthcare waste that is generated in normal times”. The goal of this work is to illustrate how waste management processes responded to the pandemics in the global context and in the Portuguese context in particular. Furthermore, when dealing with a complex subject such as this study, it is also important to take into consideration society’s input and contribution. The pandemic has forced a change in our everyday life and consequently we have changed our habits and were introduced to some limitations regarding our waste management. This study also aims to understand how citizens are contributing to preventing a waste management crisis by understanding if they are aware of the current risks involved and if they are properly informed on how to proceed during a pandemic that limits some of our routines and behaviours.
Keywords: Pandemics, waste management

Striving for crisis resilience: The Crisis Layers and Thresholds Model and ICT mediated social sensing for evidence-based crisis management/communication
Rui Gaspar 1, Samuel Domingos 2, Duarte Brito 3, Gisela Leiras 4, Jessica Filipe 4, Beatriz Raposo 1, 4, Miguel Telo de Arriaga 1, 4
1 Universidade Catolica Portuguesa, Catolica Research Centre for Psychological - Family and Social Wellbeing (CRC-W), Lisbon, Portugal
2 William James Centre for Research (WJCR), ISPA-Instituto Universitario, Lisboa, Portugal
3 Public Health Unit - ACES Lisbon Central, Lisboa, Portugal
4 Directorate-General for Health, Lisboa, Portugal
Symposium presentation 3

Due to the growing number of emerging risks that characterize today’s society, often becoming chronic in their nature, there is a growing need to achieve social systems resilience to cope with the demands they pose. Due to crisis often recurrent and long-term effects, rather than striving for crisis resolution, we should be striving for crisis resilience, grounded on learning and adaptation processes. Drawing on this viewpoint, we propose a theoretical model – the Crisis Layers and Thresholds (CLT) Model that aims to understand how individuals, groups and organizations evaluate, respond and learn from crisis situations that evolve non-linearly and often acquire chronic charcateristics. This model is grounded on the assumption that: 1) individuals’ evaluations and responses should be the basis/core of crisis management and crisis communication activities; 2) different concurrent psychosocial and organizational processes occur at different levels of analysis of a crisis, from a micro individual level to a macro organization level. To implement effective evidence-based crisis management and crisis communication in line with such assumptions, we also propose the CLT-ResiliScence approach, an ICT-mediated crisis sensing approach. This is based on monitoring “social sensors” data, particularly from social media, as an important source of information. This approach has been applied to inform risk and crisis communications and social mobilization strategies, implemented by the Portuguese Directorate-General for Health, during the current COVID-19 pandemic. Learnings acquired from this model and approach implementation will be discussed.

Keywords: COVID-19; Crisis management; Crisis communication; Information and Communication Technologies; social sensors

Gathering evidence for crisis and risk communication: Social media monitoring of demands and resources during the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal
Samuel Domingos 1, Rui Gaspar 2, Hugo Toscano 2, Gisela Leiras 3, Jéssica Filipe 3, Beatriz Raposo 2, 3, Miguel Arriaga 2, 3
1 William James Center for Research, ISPA - Instituto Universitário, Lisboa, Portugal
2 Católica Research Centre for Psychological, Family and Social Wellbeing (CRC-W), Universidade Católica Portuguesa, Lisboa, Portugal
3 Health, Literacy and Wellbeing Division Directorate-General for Health, Lisboa, Portugal
Symposium Presentation 4

COVID-19 pandemic shown that human behaviour lays at the core of disease/virus spreading control mechanisms. Knowing how people perceive the demands posed by the pandemic and the resources they have to cope with it, provides quantitative and qualitative indicators of how people evaluate and respond to crisis, facilitating policy making and allowing for better risk and crisis communication. Here we aim to show how social media monitoring of user-generated comments was used to track quantitative and qualitative risk perception indicators associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal, and how this knowledge was used to provide recommendations for risk and crisis communication and social mobilization.

From January 2020 to January 2021 user-generated publicly available comments in response to COVID-19 communications issued by the Portuguese General-Directorate of Health and 7 representative national media outlets were extracted and analysed. Using a revised version of the DeCodeR framework (Domingos, et al., 2020), adapted to disease/viral outbreaks, each message was coded as an expression of demands (danger; effort; uncertainty) or resources (knowledge, abilities & skills; dispositions; external support), and used to compute a threat perception level (threat level ratio = demands / resources), as an indicator of risk perception. This enabled longitudinal quantitative and qualitative monitoring of such perceptions.

A total of 120267 comments were extracted and aggregated in 87 4-days monitoring periods. We identified 2 main/broad cycles: 1) “crisis cycles”, where perceived threat consistently increased until it peaked; and 2) “relapse cycles”, where perceived threat consistently decreased, reaching the minimum levels of the previous cycle. Interestingly cycles duration and time between cycles diminished overtime, and threat level tended to mirror the epidemiological evolution of new infections and deaths overtime. Each cycle was characterized by distinct qualitative expressions of demands and resources that enabled the identification of health threatening misconceptions (e.g., overconfidence about the use of masks and consequent devaluation of physical distance and other behavioural and dispositional resources, deemed as rudimentary and with lower protective value) and sources of social unrest (e.g., prejudice and discrimination towards specific groups; motives and sources displeasure towards announced decisions and control measures), allowing for institutional tailored and targeted risk/crisis communications to address high priority issues.

Results evidenced that monitoring demands and resources perceptions quantitatively and qualitatively overtime enabled risk perception management and evidence-based risk/crisis communications addressing issues pre-emptively.

Keywords: COVID-19; risk communication; crisis communication; social media; crisis informatics
Mon, 14 Jun -14:30 - 16:00
Symposium - Public perceptions on plastic pollution, a path towards solutions

Perceptions of microplastics in the Norwegian public
Marcos Felipe Rodriguez 1, Gisela Böhm 1, 2, Rouven Doran 1
1 Department of Psychosocial science, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
2 Department of Psychology, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Lillehammer, Norway
Plastics are indispensable in daily life but have become a planetary threat. They can be produced as or degrade into microplastics (MP), which have been detected in marine and freshwater environments across the globe. Previous literature points towards the need for an interdisciplinary approach combining natural and social sciences in addressing the problem. This includes an understanding of the role of the public in aggravating and /or mitigating the problem, particularly regarding risk perception and associated behavioral responses. The current presentation reports an empirical study that aimed to investigate laypeople’s intuitive understanding of MP by means of the mental model approach. For this purpose, we asked an online sample (N=2720) from the Norwegian public to state what the first thing was that came to their minds when they read or heard the word ‘microplastics.’ These free associations have been analyzed in two ways. On the one hand, the obtained answers were content analyzed, that is, coded according to a categorical coding scheme that was developed based on with prior psychological research on risk perception and mental models in an environmental context. In addition, a text analytic procedure, structural topic modeling, is currently in progress. The analyses focus on both the content and structure of the responses and attempt to identify shared mental models, especially concerning beliefs about causes and impacts of MP. Preliminary results regarding the content analysis show that laypeople more frequently express evaluations of MP (37%) and think of the potential consequences of MP (54%), than of reflecting upon requirements needed to solve the problem (7.5%) or how widespread MP are (8.2%). The content analysis will be juxtaposed with the text analytic results. Generally, understanding people’s mental models fills a knowledge gap in the social science literature on MP, which may assist in finding a societal response to an eminent environmental problem.
Keywords: microplastics, mental models, risk perception

Public risk perception of microplastics
Johanna Kramm, Carolin Völker, Simon Werschmöller
ISOE - Institute for Social-Ecological Research, Frankfurt, Germany
Social research on the perception of marine litter is increasing. However, risk research on microplastics perception is rare. While there are first exploratory surveys on how the public perceives microplastics an in-depth study on the public risk perception of microplastics is still lacking. Against this background, we explore in a representative survey 1) the public’s knowledge about microplastics, 2) the risk perception regarding microplastics and 3) the factors affecting risk perception of microplastics.

In an online survey, representative for the resident population in Germany (N=1.027), participants were asked about their knowledge, concerns about the effects of microplastics on the environment and human health, actions on microplastics and media communication on microplastics.

The results show that microplastics are widely known in the German population. Overall, about 80 % of the respondents have heard about microplastics. While a majority of the respondents state that they have good to very good knowledge about the emergence, distribution and effects of microplastics, participants feel less informed about how to behave regarding microplastics (only 45 %). The results show that people who assess their knowledge on microplastics higher have a statistically higher risk perception. In addition, respondents who heard about negative media narratives have a significant higher risk perception as well.

In conclusion, the majority of respondents has a high risk perception of microplastics in the environment and regarding human health. Risk perception varies according demographic variables, knowledge, environmental awareness and known media narratives. The high concerns could be caused by i) media coverage suggesting severe impacts of microplastics and by ii) uncertainty in science regarding possible effects of microplastics.

Keywords: survey, media narratives, social sciences, plastic pollution

Expert Perceptions about Microplastics Pollution: Potential Sources and Solutions
Maja Grünzner 1, 2, Sabine Pahl 1, 2, Mathew White 1, Richard Thompson 2
1 University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
2 University of Plymouth, Plymouth, United Kingdom
Concern about plastic pollution, specifically from microplastics, is high amongst European citizens and effective actions to reduce it is needed. We want to follow up on the SAPEA recommendation to communicate microplastics risk and uncertainties of scientific evidence transparently. To do so, our study investigates expert’s risk perception of microplastics sources and their perception towards the effectiveness and feasibility of solutions with a cross-sectional online survey. During the first wave of data collection, the survey was distributed via various social media channels and shared during a relevant webinar series on microplastics as well as via individual emails to the wider microplastics research community from November 2020 to January 2021. At present, we have an expert sample of N=54, with 1 to 30 years of experience studying plastics all over the planet. Their research is primarily funded publicly (72.2%) and the greater majority (85.2%) is working specifically on micoplastics. When asked about their primary interest in terms of protecting the natural environment or human health, 46.3% answered natural environment, whereas 5.6% answered human health; 48.1% were interested in both. Additionally, experts worried more about the impact of macroplastics and microplastics on the natural environment in comparison to human health. When comparing the quality of the current state of evidence on microplastics impact on the natural environment and human health, it was perceived as poorer for the latter. Furthermore, our results show that the risk ratings, likelihood and severity of microplastics sources impact possessed a strong positive correlation, and risk on the natural environment was higher rated than risk on human health. Fragments from agriculture, tire abrasion, textiles fibres and macroplastics formed a cluster of highest impact sources for the environment. Textiles fibres, microbeads in cosmetics, tire abrasion along with synthetic surfaces of sports-and playgrounds were rated highest impact for human health. The two factors–effectiveness and feasibility–rated for solutions were less strongly correlated. High effectiveness/high feasibility solutions included reduction of single-use products, deposit and reduction schemes, as well as consumer education. Low effectiveness/low feasibility solutions included biodegradable materials, and technological solutions such as particle capture, e.g., from sport- and playgrounds as well as from tires. These results can help to inform future communication strategies and empirical studies on microplastics in different disciplines about target choice. After all, we humans are the cause and the solution.
Keywords: Risk Perception, Experts, Plastic Pollution, Microplastics

Consumer perceptions of single-use plastic packaging: Design for Circular Economy and end-of-life scenarios.
Sohvi Nuojua 1, Sabine Pahl 2, Richard Thompson 1
1 University of Plymouth School of Biological and Marine Sciences, Plymouth, United Kingdom
2 University of Vienna Department of Cognition, Emotion, and Methods in Psychology, Vienna, Austria
Single-use packaging and other plastic items have been under scrutiny in recent years due to their potential to pollute the marine environment. A transition towards circular business models, or the circular economy (CE), can help reduce such waste. However, this transition is only possible if consumer acceptance is considered and ensured. Understanding consumers’ responses to the CE of single-use packaging is therefore a crucial starting point in attempts to promote circularity in the consumer sector.

Properties of packaging design that bear relevance to CE include manufacture and potential for value recovery of the used materials. However, these properties are not always realised, as optimal value recovery does not always happen, and the packaging may even end up polluting the environment. From the consumer’s point of view the potential end-of-life scenarios of packaging are likely to matter, especially in light of recent surge in public awareness of plastic pollution. Furthermore, it is likely that there are differences between different packaging materials in how packaging properties and end-of-life scenarios are valued.

Therefore, we set off to study consumers’ perceptions of CE-relevant design features and end-of-life scenarios of single-use packaging. We used an online survey to collect responses from 1,200 consumers in Great Britain (400 in England, Wales and Scotland). We used Likert scales to measure the importance that consumers place on circular manufacture, recyclability and various end-of-life scenarios (value recovery by recycling or incineration) of single-use packaging. We gathered these responses for three different packaging materials: conventional plastic, biodegradable plastic and glass. In addition, we measured a range of environmental orientations (recycling behaviour, nature connectedness, marine litter concern and value orientations) in order to determine any moderating effects of these variables on consumers’ responses.

Analysis of this data is currently underway, with results ready for reporting later in the spring. We anticipate that our findings can help inform how to communicate to the public about the CE and sustainability in regard to single-use packaging. We see particular value in uncovering consumer acceptability of biodegradable plastic packaging, and whether this type of packaging is perceived differently from conventional plastic.

Keywords: plastic packaging, circular economy, end-of-life, consumer
Mon, 14 Jun -14:30 - 16:00
Symposium - Radon Risk Communication: science needed

Radon communication in Germany: dealing with fields of tension in risk communication
Christiane Pölzl-Viol
German Federal Office for Radiaton Protection, BfS, Salzgitter, Germany
According to WHO, radon is the second leading cause for lung cancer. In Germany, radon is an important topic in radiation protection. There are regional differences in the amount of radon in the soil and indoors: from mostly low radon concentrations in the North German Plain up to rather high radon concentrations in most low mountain ranges, in the Alpine foreland and in regions with moraines of rock from the last ice age.

Besides the general challenge to set up communication campaigns that take into account current knowledge on risk perception, information perception and health protection behaviour, Germany’s federal system with its 16 federal states raises a couple of further challenges. Each federal state has a different radon situation, reaching from close to zero up to areas with very high levels of radon in the soil. Communication measures are planned on the federal level as well as on the levels of the federal states. A few federal states with high radon concentrations have been very active in radon risk communication for a couple of years already, designing their own information campaign.

Due to the observed lack of success in changing radon protection behaviour in Germany, and derived from the objectives of the German national radon action plan, which was launched in May 2019, currently efforts are made to intensify, coordinate and harmonize radon risk communication endeavours. This means that information aim, information content, target group, overall messages and risk comparisons ought to be harmonized between the federal states. Moreover, by the end of 2020, the federal states have to determine areas where the reference value of 300 Becquerel per cubic metre in buildings is expected to be exceeded in a “considerable number of buildings with living areas or workplaces”. Those areas will be indicated in a specific radon map. Aspects to be considered in risk communication are stigmatization, economic aspects, tourism, and, last but not least, which colours to use to describe the radon levels measured.

The presentation will give an overview on the decisions taken by June 2020, the major remaining challenges and the way forward. The developments will reflect on the potential that state of the art in social sciences can have for dealing with risk communication measures in practice.

Keywords: radon, risk communication,

The Potsdam Radon Communication manifesto
Frederic Bouder
University of Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway
On 8-10 October 2019 a group of scientists and regulators who hold competences in radon risk research and radon mitigation at international, national and subnational levels met at the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) in Potsdam, Germany. The purpose of the meeting was to share best communication practice regarding the risks that radon poses to human health, as well as to identify main pitfalls in motivating populations at risk to take protective actions. Previous efforts to communicate the risks of radon and behavioural recommendations to avoid them, have concentrated on increasing awareness and risk perception only, without addressing barriers and behavioural factors. Efforts also failed to take into account target group specific differences with regards to individual risk, individual barriers and needs, information processing, media use and reachability, and rather used a “one size fits all approach”. This presentation will focus on the eight concrete recommendations that were drafted and endorsed by the 16 signatories to the manifesto. The recommendations have since been published and publicised. They are based on 50 years of risk communication and health communication research and practice. They must be implemented to improve radon risk communication.
Keywords: Radon
Risk Communication

Risk communication through internet: The case of radon indoor air pollution
Tanja Perko 1, 2, Catrinel Turcanu 1
1 Institute for Environment, Health and Safety, SCK•CEN, Mol 2400, Belgium, Mol, Belgium
2 University of Antwerp, Belgium, Antwerp, Belgium
Exposure to radon, an indoor air radioactive gas pollutant, is one of the main causes of lung cancer in Europe. Although radon tests are easily accessible in most countries, and protective actions are effective and relatively easy to apply, the levels of radon testing and subsequent home remediation remain lower than aimed for. This presentation gives an overview of main pitfalls and challenges in radon risk communication campaigns in Europe and suggests internet communication as one of the tools to be used to increase the efficiency and effect of radon communications.

Method used for this research are non-systematic document analysis (scientific articles and reports) and content analysis of internet pages. The website evaluation relied on internet communication metrics adapted for radon risk mitigation. This included availability of radon information, accessibility, stakeholder interaction, dialogue, responsiveness, content and design, and transparency and openness. Unexpectedly, results show that availability of radon information on the internet in radon prone areas is often limited and poor, leaving radon information seekers at risk. Radon websites should be improved with consistent information supported by engaging stories, provide for personalized features, support stakeholder feedback and dialogue, and include the use of social media.

The analysis is concluded with a synthesis of good practices for health communication practitioners, which should support radon risk mitigation, and contribute to improving public health particularly decreasing the numbers of lung cancers. The effect of radon information available on internet pages on changing protective behaviours is suggested for future research.

This research has been conducted in the framework of the European ENGAGE project. ENGAGE is part of CONCERT. This project received funding from the Euratom research and training programme 2014-2018 under grant agreement No 662287.

Keywords: radon, value-action gap, stakeholder engagement, internet, risk communication, cancer
Mon, 14 Jun -16:15 - 17:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - COVID and Pandemics 2

An HCID-scenario and Covid-19: The importance of social support for HCWs in high-risk situations
Nadine Müller
Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena Intercultural Business Communication, Jena, Germany
In high-risk contexts with unknown variables individuals or organizations need to cope with all possible outcomes at best. But as the available knowledge about concrete circumstances is often limited, a specific preparation for these outcomes may not be achievable. Thus, resilience as the general ability to overcome disturbing outcomes (Bhamra et al. 2011) can help people to act deliberately in high-risk situations. An often overlooked yet crucial aspect of resilience factors is the social environment. Families’ and friends’ support or strain (e.g. stigmatization) may influence an employee and thus the behaviour in said contexts (Humburg 2001) as decisions, such as the willingness to work in a high-risk situation, are not only based on one’s own risk perception but also the risk perception of the social surroundings.

These risk perceptions are, however, based on the available information about a risk. Communicating with people facing specific risks in order to help them make informed decisions is the general goal of risk communication (Gamhewage 2014). The social environment of employees can be one specific target-group of risk communication, which is usually not addressed separately. Hence, they may receive their information about the risks via various channels such as personal communication or public media. But the way the social environment perceives such information influences their way of risk evaluation and therefore not only their support for the employees, but also – in a larger scale – the organization’s resilience. High consequence infectious diseases (HCID) and the Covid-19-pandemic are prime examples for the addressed issues as caring for an HCID- or Covid-19-patient does not only affect single hospitals and their employees but also the public.

Building up on an interest to explore the importance of the social environment in high-risk situations, the presentation will give first insights of health care workers' (HCWs) experience and perceptions. Following the introduction of the HCID and Covid-19 context, the methodological approach will be illustrated. By contrasting findings regarding those two contexts, implications can be discussed.

Bhamra, R., Dani, S. & Burnard, K. (2011). Resilience: The concept, a literature review and future directions. International Journal of Production Research, 49 (18), 5375–5393.

Gamhewage, G. (2014). An Introduction to Risk Communication.

Humburg, S. (2001). Mitarbeitermotivation im Krankenhaus: Das Organisationsklima und seine Bedeutung für das Qualitätsmanagement. Schriftenreihe zur angewandten Sozialpsychologie: Bd. 6. Dt. Inst.-Verl.

Keywords: social support, high-risk situations, risk communication, organizational resilience

Risk communication during pandemics: comparing communication strategies toward the SARS and COVID-19 in Taiwan
Milan Chen, Kuei-Tien Chou
Risk Society and Policy Research Center, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
In light of the rapid development of the COVID-19 pandemic, clear and consistent communication is vital to contain the virus's impact. There is thus an urgent need for strategies in conducting effective risk communication and enhancing the public’s trust to contain the outbreak. This paper aims to identify the driving factors to effective risk communication during a pandemic and provide significant policy implications based on the Taiwanese case. Furthermore, this paper addresses the societal and political landscapes that contribute to effective risk communication and the potential challenges.

Although Taiwan has been one of the first countries hit both by the SARS in 2003 and the COVID-19 in 2020, there is a stark contrast between the outcomes. During the SARS outbreak, Taiwan had the highest mortality rate of 21% in the world, while during the COVID-19 pandemic, Taiwan has so far the lowest case fatality rate of 0.8. To explain the difference between these two similar cases, this paper hypothesizes that the critical factors in containing pandemic are the Taiwanese government's risk communication strategies. That is, this paper considers Taiwan’s effective risk communication during the COVID-19 pandemic allow measures, including wearing masks, social distancing rules, and self-quarantine, to be complied thoroughly, and therefore keeps the infectious rate low.

To test the proposed hypothesis, this paper examines the role of risk communication in risk governance. This paper systematically compares the communication strategies (such as framings, contents, channels, and frequencies) at different stages adopted by the Taiwanese government during the SARS and COVID-19 outbreak. Then this paper examines the understandability and credibility of these strategies through conducting focus groups and interviews with the targeted audience. While identifying the key factors to effective risk communication in Taiwan, this paper seeks to contribute to effective risk communication discussions and provide timely policy implications to address the continuing impact of the global pandemic.

Keywords: Covid-19, SARS, risk communication, Taiwan

Visualizing epidemic surveillance data – Dashboards as a source of scientific knowledge
Fabian Brand, Johanna Geppert, Natalie Berger, Severine Koch, Annett Schulze
German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment, Berlin, Germany
The current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic confronts governmental agencies as well as civil society with dynamic decision-making situations. People are following developments using different types of media and formats to make sense of the current crisis. Quality media such as public service broadcasting uses figures from universities or national and international health organizations in their reporting. The (epidemiological) findings and forecasts on the spread of the virus are increasingly presented in so-called dashboards, i.e. through a specific type of visualization “of a consolidated set of data for a certain purpose”, using a combination of numerical, temporal, geographical and diagrammatic forms of presentation. In view of the relevance that dashboards are currently holding for public risk and crisis communication, the study’s main objective is to investigate the visualisation of complex data sets and the ways in which dashboards are used.

This presentation provides results of a systematic review of peer-reviewed journal articles and conference proceedings (N = 77) assessing the state of research on dashboards in the context of public health risks and diseases.

Given the heterogeneity of the included studies, the number of publications that explicitly focus on dashboards and their reception by users is comparatively small. Moreover, studies that do not limit themselves to describing the construction of a specific dashboard, but also evaluate its content in terms of different risk communication models or constructs (e.g. risk perception or health literacy) are even rarer. Furthermore, some of the studies are limited at best to the evaluation of usability and corresponding metrics from the perspective of potential users, but often only to a purely functionalistic evaluation of the dashboard by the respective development teams. These results suggest that despite their frequent use, the value of dashboards for risk communication purposes still needs to be assessed further. Applied research on risk communication tools like dashboards would benefit a) from including risk communication models and constructs as well as different disciplinary perspectives (e.g., IT, communication studies, psychology) and b) a more inclusive approach that involves potential target users throughout the construction and design process. For this, a pre-design consideration of risk information needs that potential target groups might have is essential.

Keywords: dashboard, public health, scientific data, evaluation
Mon, 14 Jun -16:15 - 17:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Transportation

Risk and autonomy: inferences from a secondary analysis of aviation incidents
Jerry Busby
Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
Recent developments in so-called autonomous technologies point to the importance of autonomy in the creation and control of risk. Several studies in the risk literature suggest how probabilistic risk assessment can be applied to such technologies, but often autonomy is incidental to such analysis. Autonomy has always been evident in some way or other in sociotechnical systems, and we argue that analysing historical cases of breakdown in such systems can tell us much about the more fundamental relationship between autonomy and risk.

The aim of this study was to explore this relationship by analysing a corpus of aviation accident investigation reports – a domain in which substantial numbers of technically authoritative investigations are publically available. Cases of technological autonomy have been limited, and most of the autonomy is human or organizational, but there are cases of what is at least proto-autonomy in (for example) flight control systems – as evidenced in recent cases such as that of the 737 MCAS system.

Central to our analysis of autonomy was that it is a social practice, not simply a logical property of some entity: the autonomy of a person, organization or artefact is autonomy in a social setting, and therefore an autonomy that is learned and constructed in the course of social processes. The analysis took a qualitative, thematic approach in which we attempted to identify characteristic ways in which the social practice of autonomy was implicated in processes of breakdown. For example:

  • Autonomy becomes part of a system’s objective function: autonomy becomes an end in itself, sometimes dangerously, as it is materially facilitated and socially legitimated.
  • Autonomy constitutes a drain on resources in its own right: autonomy demands resources, notably for coordination, that can deprive important processes, such as situation awareness, of resources they need.
  • Autonomy requires an informative normality: although autonomous entities relieve other parts of a system of the need for strict control, autonomous practices are adapted to specific ecologies that provide cues about what to do, and the absence of such cues becomes problematic.
  • Autonomy manifests habitual behaviour: autonomous entities act habitually, both to reflect regularities in their learning environments and to reflect resource limits, and because these are habits not programmed rules they can become resistant to correction.

Such observations lead to certain procedures of risk identification for autonomous systems, and to risk control principles that resemble processes of human socialisation as much as conventional system defences.

Keywords: Autonomy, aviation, secondary analysis

Collision risks and their control in autonomous machine systems
Timo Malm, Risto Tiusanen, Eetu Heikkilä, Toni Ahonen
VTT, Tampere, Finland
Autonomous vehicles will change the way of transporting goods and people. However, autonomous mobile machines and cars have entered the market almost 30 years slower than expected. All safety problems have not yet been solved. This paper concentrates on risks of autonomous mobile machines, which are applied outdoors in large, but limited areas. The project behind the study is Autoport (, which is funded by Business Finland.

There are not yet adequate safety-rated long range (> 4 m) sensors for autonomous mobile machines. Another challenge is the large operating area, since it leads to large amount of equipment for tracking and isolation. This means, in practice, that protective devices can tackle only some risks and additional means are needed to take care of all meaningful risks. However, the risks can be under control in relatively small closed autonomous machine systems by applying isolation and access control.

In many cases, it is necessary to allow manual driving in the same area where autonomous systems operate. This requires continuous tracking of all vehicles and persons and specific rules for manual driving and pedestrians. However, the technical system may not be quick enough to respond e.g. to an oncoming vehicle driving the wrong lane or vehicle not obeying stop command (red light). Both technical means and rules need to be supervised to achieve a safe autonomous machine system. The manufacturer of the system needs to take responsibility according to Machinery Directive 2006/42/EC. The manufacturer delivers, among others, the safe technical system and give guidelines for making rules for applying the system. The user organisation takes responsibility according to Work Equipment Directive 2009/104/EC. The user organisation needs to supervise that technology is operating safely and there are rules, which the operators follow.

To control the risks of the system, one needs to consider human behaviour, technology, system modification control and risks beyond the capability of technology, like, too long detection ranges, objects behind corners or unexpected dimensions of objects. Some risks may be difficult to identify due to unclear liability division between stakeholders or insufficient risk management. Also unexpected risks need to be taken care of by applying technical means and rules in an environment where there are at least two stakeholders controlling the risks.

Keywords: Risk, safety, autonomous machine system

Ketki Kulkarni 1, Floris Goerlandt 2, Osiris Valdez Banda 1, Pentti Kujala 1
1 Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
2 Dalhousie University, Department of Industrial Engineering, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
In risk management processes for shipping accident prevention, there is a recurring need for analysing risks of shipping accidents and for strategies managing these in (inter-)organizational settings. This work presents key results from a comprehensive review of prevention-oriented academic work and identifies trends and gaps in the literature. Research from the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) is compared with the work from the global community to understand links between them. Contributions from BSR are subsequently analysed more in-depth, addressing issues like the nature of the academic work done, the risk management processes involved, and the underlying accident theories. From the results, patterns in the historical evolution of the research domain are detected, and insights about current trends gained. These are used to identify future avenues for research. The technological readiness of the models presented in the literature is analysed, providing insights on the transfer between academic and end-user professional communities. It is hoped that the results can contribute to further developments in prevention oriented risk analysis while considering its relevance and usefulness for professional environments. We reviewed 463 articles, of which 206 were from BSR. We focussed on 7 review issues to provide insights on the articles. This revealed that most work focuses on empirical analyses of accident data, the development of new modelling approaches, and applications of these to case studies. Correspondingly, the main focus in the research domain has been on the risk identification and risk analysis phases. There has been considerably less specific focus on risk evaluation and mechanisms to incorporate risk assessment in organizational processes through risk management processes. Various types of probabilistic models, Bayesian Networks, and simulation have been developed, but most of these have remained at the stage of concept development and demonstration, with very few models having been extensively tested and validated, and developed in user-friendly tools and software. Most work has been made based on complex linear accident theories, the pyramid accident model, or without an accident-theoretical basis. Only recently, work based on the STAMP and FRAM accident theories has been published. A large share of the work does not consider human or organizational factors, despite its importance being highlighted not just in prevention-oriented maritime risk analysis, but in general risk research as well. The review enables the identification of various patterns, focus areas, and emerging trends, which are used to make suggestions for future research directions.
Keywords: Maritime risk management, maritime safety, accident prevention, Baltic Sea Region
Mon, 14 Jun -16:15 - 17:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Governance and Risks 2

EU governance of risks posed by endocrine disrupting substances, critical assessment of developments, conceptual and methodological problems, risk/policy implications.
Bernardo Delogu
Private consultant, Former Head of Unit Risk Assessment, Health and Consumers Directorate General, European Commission, Roma, Italy
Governance and regulation of risks posed by substances showing endocrine disrupting properties involve far-reaching conceptual, methodological and practical problems. A EU strategy to deal with endocrine disruptors was launched as early as 1999 and specific provisions were subsequently introduced into EU regulation, notably for chemicals, plant protection products and biocides. Nevertheless, little progress has been achieved so far with the practical implementation of such provisions, while the chosen hazard and mode-of action-based approach remains controversial. The process for the establishment of EU criteria for the identification of endocrine disruption properties, within the limited framework of legislation on pesticides and biocides,only recently completed, has been long, characterised by scientific controversy and deep conceptual difficulties. The approach followed for dealing with endocrine disrupting substances in plant protection products and biocides deviates from the established risk assessment paradigm based on identification and characterisation of hazards, exposure assessment and, finally, risk characterisation. The applicability of a risk-based approach was not considered applicable by the legislator in this particular case notably due to certain specific properties involved, such as, in particular, the non-monotonic dose-response relationships for certain adverse effects, the suspected effects at very low doses and the existence of critical windows of exposure for some serious adverse health effects.The identification of endocrine disruptors banned from use in pesticides and biocides attributes a dominant part to the presence of an endocrine activity, but difficult questions remain on the criteria for verifiyng a causal link between mode of action and hazardous properties.

The aim of the presentation is to relate the results of an on-going research into, and critical assessment of the EU-level scientific, policy and regulatory developments on endocrine disruption, to identify and discuss the key critical conceptual and practical problems faced in setting and implementing a science-based approach for the governance of endocrine disruption risks and, finally, to examine the wider implications for the risk-based policy approach.

The Author is a former Head of Unit for Risk Assessment and Adviser for Research and Science at the Health and Consumers Directorate-General of the European Commission.


Responsible risk governance: operationalising the principles of inclusion and reflection in the Australian nanotechnology R&D sector
Yuwan Malakar, Justine Lacey
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Brisbane, QLD, Dutton Park, Australia
New technologies are being invented and introduced into society at an increasingly rapid pace, and the capacity to identify potential risks and responsibly govern these technologies has never been so urgent. This applies to not only minimising the known risks of these technologies, but also building a governance system that is resilient enough to withstand future, and potentially unforeseen, risks. To this end, scholars argue that traditional forms of risk governance must incorporate the normative principles of communication and inclusion, integration, and reflection. In this research, we develop and test a responsible risk governance framework in the context of Australian nanotechnology research and development (R&D). Our proposed framework includes the traditional approaches to risk governance of risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication, and integrates the components of inclusion and reflection.

To test this responsible risk governance framework in practice, we interviewed 28 experts involved in nanotechnology R&D in Australia to elicit their experience and observations of working in this emerging field over the past 20 years and longer. By undertaking a retrospective case study, we sought to identify how this field of R&D was undertaken with respect to characterising the technology’s potential risks and benefits and what this meant for the practice of innovation in the field. Further, the research identifies and documents how the components of inclusion and reflection were evident in the risk governance of nanotechnology R&D in Australia.

The key findings of this research identified evidence of both inclusion and reflection in the professional practices of nanotechnology experts and that both risk governance components generated tangible benefits in how innovation was undertaken in the field. For example, inclusion was largely evident as disciplinary integration and public engagement, while reflection was mainly expressed via reflexive institutions and through adaptive management of the R&D process. The integration of inclusion promoted mutual learning and understanding nanotechnology risks from others’ perspectives, especially when risks were uncertain and ambiguous. Additionally, reflection encouraged review of fundamental assumptions and limitations and was critical to challenging, and changing, their own perception of risks and risk-related decisions. Integrating these components also improved the information used for risk assessment, communication with stakeholders, and for developing policy and regulation. This case study research demonstrates how the operationalisation of normative principles can enable responsible risk governance in context.

Keywords: Risk governance, Australia, inclusion, reflection

When a simple risk isn’t so simple: The Humboldt Bus Tragedy
Kevin Quigley 1, Mary MacGowan 2
1 Professor and Scholarly Director of the MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada
2 Masters of Public Administration student, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada
In this presentation we will examine the interplay between risk type and social context, and how they influence government risk regulation regimes.

The International Risk Governance framework divides risks into four classes: simple, complex, uncertain, and ambiguous (Renn and Walker 2008). With a simple risk, predicted events are frequent and the causal chain is obvious; car accidents are an example of simple risks. They generate reliable data that help to inform our view about the risk; we can be more confident about the likelihood that the threat will materialize and the consequences of that threat. Government regulatory interventions are often underpinned by cost-benefit and options analyses.

Yet simple risks may not be so simple.

On April 6th, 2018, a chartered motor coach bus transporting the Humboldt Broncos Junior Hockey Team collided with a semi-tractor unit near Armley, Saskatchewan, Canada. Of the 29 people aboard the coach bus, 16 died and 13 were injured. The driver of the semi-tractor, Jaskirat Sidhu, had fail to stop at a stop sign. Drug or cellphone use were not factors.

The bus crash prompted an outpouring of public support around the world. A GoFundMe campaign for the victims raised $15.2 million; there were public memorials; a national newspaper published over 100 articles about the tragedy in the year following the crash.

The driver was so distraught he refused to mount any defence and instructed his lawyer to make no recommendation on sentencing. He was found guilty of dangerous driving, and sentenced to eight years, a disproportionate sentence, argued some, compared to similar cases and the underlying offence.

Coach buses are considered to be among the safest vehicles on the road. Last year 42 people died in urban or intercity bus collisions. In comparison, approximately 2,000 Canadians die each year in other types of motor vehicle collisions. Despite this difference, there have been calls to introduce new, stringent standards for buses in light of the Humboldt tragedy.

We will use Hood, Rothstein and Baldwin (2001) risk regulation regime framework to examine contextual factors that influence how governments regulate the risks associated with motor vehicle accidents, including the role of markets (e.g., law and insurance), public opinion (public perceptions, media coverage and social media campaigns) and interest groups (lobbyists for the bus and insurance industries). We will use media and document analysis in the presentation.

Mon, 14 Jun -16:15 - 17:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Theory of Risk Sciences

Formulation of systematic framework for scenario development in the context of nuclear repository systems
Anna Leinonen 1, 3, Nadezhda Gotcheva 2, Raija Koivisto 2, Pauli Komonen 1
1 VTT Technical Research Center of Finland Ltd, Espoo, Finland
2 VTT Technical Research Center of Finland Ltd, Tampere, Finland
3 Aalto University, School of Business, Espoo, Finland
The first-in-the-world repository for spent nuclear fuel is under construction in Finland and regulatory decisions concerning its safety are becoming timely. Nuclear waste is a hazardous material, which will remain radioactive for tens or even hundreds of thousands of years, depending on the type of waste and radioactive isotopes. Thus, the risk assessment of a nuclear waste repository calls for a thorough understanding and analysis of relevant phenomena and their evolution.

Scenarios have a central role in the assessment of long-term safety of the disposal system. In risk assessment, scenarios typically represent the pathway to unwanted events and consequently risks. In futures field, scenario literature emphasizes the narrative and intuitive features of scenario development for improving the preparedness for future. From methodological standpoint, scenario field is a profusion of different approaches and techniques, but different methods have their advantages and limitations depending on the objectives and purposes of the scenario work. Nuclear repository system represents a challenging context for scenario analysis due to its safety-critical character and requirement for extremely long time scale in the analysis.

This paper presents outcomes from a literature-based analysis aiming at the formulation of systematic framework for scenario development to support the safety assessment of nuclear waste disposal systems. Our analysis builds on methodological analogies between different scenario fields, such as foresight and industrial risk assessment or threat identification, and the evaluation of strengths and limitations of different approaches. This analysis is an initial step towards fully-fledged framework, which will be further developed and tested in an interactive setting with nuclear waste management and safety culture experts.

The work is part of SYSMET project (Systematic scenario methods for the assessment of overall safety), which is funded by Finnish Research Programme on Nuclear Waste Management (KYT2022). Our project contributes to the program goals, especially to the development of structured approaches for assessing the overall safety of complex systems.

Keywords: scenarios, hazard identification, framework, method

What single factor distinguishes disciplines of risk science from one another? A framework of risk disciplines’ contributions by uncertainty conceptualisation
Solene Huynh, Lesley Walls, Matthew Revie
Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom
One of the SRA’s strategic objectives is to communicate risk analysis knowledge to other sciences. The multidisciplinarity of risk science may hinder such communication by leaving outsiders confused, unless a clear picture of the contribution of each discipline is depicted. Endeavours towards such clarity have mainly focussed on debating over definitions of risk. The debates have revolved around definitions of consequences (or damage) and definitions of likelihood (or probability), as well as sometimes utility and values. However, to the best of our knowledge, conceptualisation of uncertainty has not been explored as a potential factor that underpins and explains divergences, and complementarities, in framing approaches of risk science across disciplines. The thesis in this presentation is that the conceptualisation of uncertainty could be one such single factor. The purpose of the presentation is to offer a new perspective on how psychology, sociology, economics, and harder/natural sciences each contribute to risk science, using four traditional concepts of uncertainty: aleatoric uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, strategic uncertainty, and volitional uncertainty. This is done by proposing a conceptual framework that links each discipline with the associated concepts of uncertainty, and with the theories underpinning modelling schools. First, the plausibility of the thesis is appraised with a systematic review of the different positions given to uncertainty across definitions of “risk”. The review encompasses foundational risk definitions (e.g. Knight’s) as well as more recent, grey-literature reviews of risk definitions. The results show that there is no single consensus on the position of uncertainty relatively to risk, but clusters. Risk is either defined as the complement of uncertainty, a subtype of uncertainty, a product of uncertainty, or an intersection with uncertainty. Such results favour the plausibility of a link between conceptualisation of uncertainty and divergences in approaching risk science. Second, concepts of uncertainty are presented and mapped to disciplines and the theories that underpin their approach to risk modelling. This is done by deduction from a review of uncertainty concepts, and induction from a review of papers considered an authority in each discipline. This work has been conducted to set the conceptual scene before zooming in on the transdisciplinary modelling perspective. It will be followed by an investigation into how, in practice, empirical risk models have distinguished (or not) between uncertainty concepts. It is expected that the clarity gained from the framework proposed will contribute to scientific progress by easing the promotion of risk analysis knowledge to other sciences.
Keywords: uncertainty, conceptual framework, multidisciplinary, review

Approaching risk/threat perception through the prism of vulnerabilities, some crucial timespace dimensions, and the notion of essence of vulnerabilities exposure
Anders Troedsson
Dept of Political Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
The individual's perception is king at ground zero at the intersection of the two axis of past/ future and internal/external realities respectively. This construct suggests a model which organizes thinking about phenomena, including such which are perceived to expose a given set of human vulnerabilities. Three guiding questions about whose vulnerabilities, what “out there” represents the risk/threat/assault/deprivation (RTA/RTD), and which exactly vulnerability is at issue, together with a more detailed scrutiny of the spacetime notions of size, distance and saturation, points in the direction of the dimensions of material-immaterial and inert-volatile as candidates for modelling. These two dimensions are relevant at any level of RTA/RTD and is less obviously colored by subjectivity, and they help lay a basis for approaching the timespace content of RTA/RTD, or simply the timespace essence of vulnerabilities exposure (VE), producing a useful typology. This essence is defined as the subjective understanding of what is threatened, which value, which need, which want. At issue is not, at least not primarily, the more or less subjective definition of the agent "out there" which produces or represents the RTA/RTD – something which is never entirely possible.

Keywords: perception, subjectivity, vulnerabilities, essence
Mon, 14 Jun -16:15 - 17:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Risk Perception 2

The social dimensions of bovine tuberculosis. Risk perceptions and controversies between farmers and veterinarians in Spain
Josep Espluga 1, Giovanna Ciaravino 2, Jordi Casal 2, Alberto Allepuz 2
1 Department of Sociology. Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallès), Spain
2 Departament de Sanitat i Anatomia Animals. Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallès), Spain
Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic infectious disease of the beef caused by the Mycobacterium tuberculosis-complex, which can affect various domestic and wild species, including humans. Today, 70% of the member countries of the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) are affected by this disease, which is a significant obstacle to the sustainability of the livestock sector. Although the bTB Eradication Program in Spain was established decades ago, in recent years there has been a stagnation in reducing the prevalence of the disease, with very large differences between areas. The main objective of our research had been to identify the perceived risks of the bTB disease and of its related control policies among a sample of farmers and veterinarians working in the field.

Our theoretical framework is based on the integration of various approaches, from the psychometric paradigm (Slovic, 1993, 2000), the cultural theory of risk (Douglas and Wildavsky, 1982), the interpretative risk perception research (Horlick-Jones et al. 2009, 2012; Wynne, 1996), and the governance approaches (Renn, 2008). The methodology consisted of a double strategy. Firstly, a qualitative phase based on exploratory interviews with key people (12) and in-depth interviews with farmers (n=22) and veterinarians (n=12). The fieldwork was done in Andalusia and Catalonia, two regions with high and low prevalence of bTB respectively. Secondly, a quantitative phase consisting of a structured questionnaire using a telephone survey in a sample of 706 farmers and 180 veterinarians was developed in the same regions.

The results show how the official control program is developed in a social context marked by a great deal of distrust and mistrust among the actors, who have serious difficulties for achieving shared definitions of bTB risks and about the appropriateness of the control program. One of the key factors generating more distrust is the official method of diagnosis of bTB. In sum, it is a situation in which the socio-cultural and political-institutional dimensions of risk prevail over the economic and health dimensions. According to our results, the presence of bTB is often perceived as due to factors out of people's control, which might contribute to the observed demotivation toward the achievement of the bTB eradication. Even if not common, the negative attitude expressed by few veterinarians need special awareness, since it may influence the correct application of the bTB programme and strongly contribute to generate disbeliefs and demotivation among farmers.

Keywords: Trust, uncertainty, risk perception, disease

Opinions and perceptions of cattle and pig veterinarians on antimicrobial resistance and antimicrobial use in Italy
Giulia Mascarello, Anna Pinto, Stefania Crovato, Silvia Marcolin, Alice Brombin, Valentina Rizzoli, Barbara Tiozzo, Licia Ravarotto, Giandomenico Pozza
Health awareness and communication Department, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, Legnaro (PD), Italy
The growth of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is one of the public health threat worldwide. Inappropriate antimicrobial usage (AMU) represents one of the causes for the spread of resistant strains.

International reports (ECDC 2015) showed the importance of the issue in the veterinary sector, which can contribute to the wider pool of resistance at both the animal and human interface, with serious public health implications. According to European legislation, the key figure for AMU on breeding farms are veterinarians, who are responsible for the prescription of drugs and have to make farmers aware of the correct use of them.

This presentation shows the results of an Italian national survey aimed at investigating veterinarians’ opinions, perceptions and behaviours towards AMU and AMR in livestock farms. This analysis is fundamental for defining veterinarians’ knowledge gaps and motivations associated with the possible misuse of antimicrobial. The target groups selected in this study are veterinarians operating in the cattle and pigs breeding as these represent important sectors of the national livestock production.

Data were collected using a semi-structured questionnaire administered through the CAWI (Computer-Assisted Web Interviewing) method. Both quantitative and qualitative analyses were performed.

422 cattle veterinarians and 96 pig veterinarians completed the questionnaire. In both groups, the majority of respondents were male, between 45 and 60 years old and they had been working as veterinarians for more than 20 years. The AMR issue seems to be underestimated: approximately one veterinarian out of four do not consider AMR a relevant problem in Italy. Nevertheless, official data highlight Italy among the countries with the highest level of AMR in Europe. Moreover, almost one-quarter of the veterinarians do not completely believe that antimicrobials are overused in Italian breeding farms. Several gaps emerged between veterinarians’ opinions and perceptions and their self-reported behaviours. For example, veterinarians claim to choose the antibiotic based on scientific motivation and current legislation, however, declared behaviours do not seem consistent with a prudent AMU in the specific breeding systems (i.e. use of broad-spectrum antibiotics, prophylactic use of antibiotics…). Comparison of the perceptions and opinions of cattle and pig veterinarians was performed to highlight potential differences in these sectors.

Results emphasize the importance of increasing awareness on AMR among cattle and pig veterinarians in Italy. They will be useful for designing communication and training strategies aimed at sharing scientific knowledge, improving prescribing behaviours and strengthening the responsibility of veterinarians for the correct use of antimicrobials.

Keywords: Italian veterinarians, antimicrobial resistance, risk perception
Mon, 14 Jun -17:05 - 17:15
- Announcement of the venue of SRA-E 2022 Conference
Mon, 14 Jun -20:00 - 21:00
- COVID Night
Tue, 15 Jun -10:00 - 10:35
Keynote - Safety and Autonomy – A Contradiction in Risk management Forever?
Tue, 15 Jun -10:35 - 11:10
Keynote - The Science and Ethics of Risk
Tue, 15 Jun -11:15 - 12:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Safety Automation

Identification of safety risks in system integration in automated port terminals
Risto Tiusanen, Eetu Heikkilä
VTT technical research centre of Finland Ltd, Tampere, Finland
Automation development towards autonomous operations is a mega trend in port terminals and container logistics. In the long term visions this results in a complex and dynamic mixed-traffic operating environment in port terminals, where manual and autonomous machines, as well as humans, may work simultaneously in the same area. Automated operations in port terminals require integration in many levels linking together various operating and maintenance procedures, IT systems, safety systems etc. to enable all of them to work optimally, safely and reliably together. The shift from manual machine operations toward automated logistic processes takes safety considerations to a system safety level. Traditional machinery safety issues are becoming system-safety and reliability issues like new automation-related threats and possible unexpected hazardous events caused by wrong information. New safety threats are seen in complex human–machine interactions and system integration, unexpected changes in operations and maintenance situations, systematic or random failures in control systems, and interfaces within the operation environment at the work site.

System integration is the process of linking different operating procedures and connecting sub-systems into a single larger sosio-technical system that functions as one. An essential part of it in this context is the integration to the terminal operating system and other external information systems. Analysis of safety risks related to system integration is a new challenge for risk identification and risk management. The use of traditional safety analysis methods, which focus on analyzing linear chains of events or technical failures in a single system are not considered sufficient for autonomy related issues and system integration aspects. There is need for new approaches and methods to identify dynamic and indirect effects on safety.

VTT, together with a group of Finnish companies, is conducting study on new systemic approaches and qualitative methods for the identification of uncertainties and risks related to machine autonomy and system integration. The work is done in a research project AUTOPORT ( mainly funded by Business Finland as part of the Smart Mobility Program. The study has a constructive approach including methodology development and case studies. The methodology under study will be developed by combining STAMP approach, STPA method and modified OHA and HAZOP methods. This new approach and will be implemented and evaluated in realistic case studies defined with the companies. The preliminary results and experiences of the study will be presented.

Keywords: system integration, safety risk, autonomy, logistics

Challenges in licensing safety automation
Björn Wahlström
Aalto University Systems Analysis Laboratory, Espoo, Finland
Safety automation is used in most technical systems where errors and failures can mount a threat to safety of the environment or human health. Such systems are for instance transportation, (air, sea, rail, roads), energy (electricity generation, mines, offshore) and health (hospitals, radiation treatment, pharmaceutics). Safety automation is used as a component in engineered defence-in-depth that brings systems back to safe states if errors or failures in controls or equipment have taken systems to a dangerous state. Over the years the practice of regulatory oversight has been used to ensure that technical systems will not introduce undue risks to third parties or the society. Regulatory oversight is therefore obviously targeted to the safety automation, which today almost exclusively is implemented using digital programmable systems. With a comparison to safety automation designed and implemented in the 1980ies, which mostly were analogue, it seems that the efforts to prove that present designs are acceptable has increased to levels unreasonable large. The paper goes through some of the problems connected to the systems engineering processes required for new nuclear power plant, where present licensing practices have caused cost escalations and delays. As a conclusion it tries to identify causes and remedies for the problems identified.
Keywords: Automation, regulatory oversight, systems engineering, digital systems
Tue, 15 Jun -11:15 - 12:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Environmental Risks 1

A spatial multicriteria model for evaluating urban flood risks under climate change scenarios using MAUT and Decision Analysis
Lucas Da Silva 1, Marcelo Alencar 1, Adiel De Almeida 2
1 Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE), Research Group on Risk Assessment and Modelling in Environment, Assets, Safety, Operations and Nature (REASON), Cx. Postal 7462, 50.630-970, Recife, Brazil
2 Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE), Center for Decision Systems and Information Development (CDSID), Cx. Postal 7462, 50.630-970, Recife, Brazil
Climate change in urban areas has had implications for public administrations. Over many years, public policies for local development have included the need to draw up, implement and amend practices for evaluating the risk that effectively identifies the outcomes posed by future climate patterns. Flood accident reports worldwide alert to the need to adapt vulnerable cities against extreme events, in which future flood patterns will occur with greater frequency and intensity. For that reason, the decision-making process should consider how climate and demographic factors – such as precipitation, temperature, urbanization, and migration – may influence the damaging consequences of human, economic, environmental assets more vulnerable. Furthermore, multiple and even conflicting perspectives of flood losses evidenced how risk-based decisions are complex to recommend better strategies for reducing urban functioning consequences. Based on this backdrop, this paper proposes a multicriteria model for evaluating and prioritizing future flood risk in a Brazilian town (2021-2050). The model is based on open-access and public data and uses estimation techniques under five criteria: human (fatalities), social (homelessness), financial (monetary losses), accessibility to public services, and public health (injuries and medical assistance). Climatic effects are estimated by general circulation models (GCMs) for the study site. The model used statistical hypothesis testing and forecast indexes to guide decision-makers (DMs) in choosing the best GCM. The integration between aspects of Decision Analysis with Utility Theory is the starting point for quantifying the decision-maker's preference. Apart from Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a multicriteria risk index is gathered and ordered for prioritizing preventive and adaptive actions against floods. Simulations of future Representative Concentration Pathways means different scenarios in which the results provide DM a broad range of information. The output analysis emphasizes the benefits of the model in considering multiple future impacts of the disaster and sharing these among different stakeholders. Graphical and georeferencing tools also contribute to cross-checking useful information and then improving flood risk management policies worldwide.
Keywords: Climate change, flood risk prioritization, multicriteria decision-making, MAUT, Decision Analysis.

Low-carbon transition: addressing countervailing risks
Aengus Collins 1, Marie-Valentine Florin 1, Ortwin Renn 2, Pia-Johanna Schweizer 2, Rainer Sachs 3
1 EPFL International Risk Governance Center (IRGC), Lausanne, Switzerland
2 Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS), Potsdam, Germany
3 Sachs Institut, Munich, Germany
As more and more countries and companies accelerate their decarbonisation efforts, it becomes increasingly urgent to identify, assess and manage the countervailing risks that these measures are likely to cause. These “transition risks” are small in comparison with the overall benefits of decarbonisation. Their significance lies in their capacity to slow or derail the transition, for example if ancillary risk are triggered, resulting from inappropriate attention to risk-risk trade-offs. A strong focus on transition risks is therefore crucial to ensuring that climate policies succeed.

This new IRGC report is based on the proceedings of an interdisciplinary expert workshop that was convened by the EPFL International Risk Governance Center (IRGC) and IASS in September 2020. It begins by presenting a working definition of transition risks, which represent a classic example of a risk-risk trade-off. The paper proceeds to highlight eight categories of transition risk: socio-political, financial, macroeconomic, geopolitical, corporate, environmental, energy-related and technological. Many of these transition risk categories are already the focus of considerable work, but our paper argues that greater attention is needed on the systemic interconnections between them. We draw on IRGC’s earlier work on emerging and systemic risks, highlighting the uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity that characterise the transition risk landscape. Our paper then presents a series of 16 recommendations to improve risk governance in this important area. These recommendations are grouped into five categories: risk identification and evaluation, inclusion and consultation, policy development and implementation, innovation in governance and contingency planning.

There are growing signs that policymakers are beginning to take transition risks seriously. Meanwhile major asset managers are planning to divest from fossil fuels, oil companies are being taken to court in an effort to spur greater action on climate change and countries that depend on fossil-fuel revenues are having to adapt to slumping demand for their exports. All of these are positive signs that the climate crisis is being taken more seriously. And that now is the time to prepare for the countervailing risks that successful climate-change mitigation is going to entail.


Using a 3D interactive model of the ‘IPAT’ equation to communicate what can drive environment risks
Ian Dawson, Danni Zhang
Centre for Risk Research, University of Southampton, UK, Southampton, United Kingdom
The natural environment currently faces a wide range of substantial risks (e.g., climate change, plastic pollution, ecosystem collapse, ocean acidification) to its normal functionality, and many of these risks have been attributed to anthropogenic activities. Therefore, it is important that the public have some understanding of the fundamental dynamics that drive such activities and which can magnify the impact of these activities to such a scale that human extinction is now considered to be one viable consequence (Bostrom, 2013). One model that attempts to illustrate these fundamental dynamics is the ‘IPAT’ equation (Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology).

Originally developed in the 1970s, the IPAT equation suggests that the recent and projected increases in human numbers, technologies and personal wealth all interact to the detriment of natural environment. Hence, IPAT provides one credible medium for communicating to individuals some of the fundamental and dynamic factors that interact to drive environmental risks. However, as a risk communication format, the IPAT equation would probably lack intrinsic appeal to many people and might be perceived as somewhat abstract and esoteric. To overcome this problem, we created a 3D desktop-sized model of the IPAT equation that can be viewed and manipulated easily by individuals of all ages and abilities. By manipulating the model, individuals can obtain a simplified and quantitative visual representation of the extent to which environmental risks can change over time (past, present and future) as a function of global variations in population levels, technological developments and average personal affluence.

Based on data gathered in both controlled conditions and a naturalistic context, participants who interacted with the 3D IPAT model reported that it (i) was an engaging and informative medium (ii) increased their concerns about humanity’s impact on the environment (iii) increased their willingness to engage in actions to limit humanity’s impact on the environment and (iv) helped them to understand how population, technology and affluence might all interact to have an adverse impact on the natural environment.

Consistent with the extant literature on metaphorical models (see Morecroft, 2012), these findings show that the 3D IPAT model was sufficiently plausible and understandable to allow individuals to make inductive inferences about the real world and, specifically, to appreciate what anthropogenic factors may be fundamental drivers of environmental risks. This highlights how interactive 3D risk communication formats could be effective at helping the public to understand complex and abstract risk-related issues.

Keywords: Risk communication, Risk education, Risk perception, Environmental risks
Tue, 15 Jun -11:15 - 12:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Security Risks

An Adversarial Risk Analysis Framework for Batch Acceptance Problems: Monitoring Review Spam
Jorge González Ortega 1, Refik Soyer 2, David Ríos Insua 1, Fabrizio Ruggeri 3
1 ICMAT, Madrid, Spain
2 GWU, Washington, DC, United States
3 IMATI, Milano, Italy
In this talk, we present an adversarial risk analysis framework for batch acceptance problems. In particular, the problem we face is deciding whether to accept or reject a batch of items received over a period of time, some of which could be faulty entailing potential security and/or performance problems. The available observable feature is the number of items in the batch (its size) and we acknowledge the potential intrusion of a data-fiddler adversary trying to obtain some profit by tampering with the batch, prior to our observation, through the injection of faulty items and/or the modification of existing items to faulty. Though simple, this setup is quite general and may be related to many situations. As an example, we consider an application in review spam. When buying a product, one frequently gets some feedback in a website from reviews of existing product users. The balance between positive and negative comments profoundly affects our final purchase decision and, thus, encourages review spam which may result in economic or reputational benefits and typically involves untruthful opinions, advertisements and duplicate reviews. According to Xie et al. (2012), sharp increases in the volume of reviews correlate with newly arrived spam reviews. Therefore, we may develop an adversarial risk analysis batch acceptance policy based on monitoring the amount of reviews per product during certain periods of time to determine whether to look for review spam derived from fake user accounts (faulty item injection) and/or altered reviews from compromised accounts (item modification to faulty).
Keywords: Adversarial hypothesis testing; Data manipulation; Cybersecurity

Terrorist attacks and tourism: a comparative study on managing the recovery in the New Zealand and French tourist industry
Felicity Lamm 1, Christophe Martin 2, Danaë Anderson 1, Swati Nagar 1, Lesley Gray 3
1 Centre for Occupational Health and Safety Research, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand
2 Institut Sainte-Marie de Chavagnes and the -Institut Supérieur du Tourisme - Risks Management and Tourism, Cannes, France
3 Department of Primary Health Care & General Practice, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand
Background: The annual revenue generated from tourism for the New Zealand (USD9.3 billion annual revenue) and French (USD63.3 billion annual revenue) economies is substantial (Tourism NZ, 2019; WTTC, 2019). However, as with other countries, tourism in both New Zealand (NZ) and France is not immune from significant risks. Terrorism and threats to national security can have a major impact on the tourism demand and revenue (Pizam & Fleischer, 2002; Henderson, 2003). Araña & León, 2008). More recently, there has also been considerable interest in the subjects of business continuity planning (BCP) and disaster recovery planning (DRP), (Hopkins, 2018). What is not known, however, is how tourism in relatively “peaceful” countries, such as NZ, not only can manage future risks but also recover from a terrorist attack and what NZ can learn from other countries, like France, that has experienced terrorist attacks over the past decades?

Method: The purpose of the exploratory study was to understand the extent to which the tourist industry in countries that have little versus a great deal of experience of terrorist attacks are managing to recovery as part of the risk management process. Drawing on the relevant literature as well as extensive government documents (e.g. the NZ Royal Commission of Inquiry, 2020), stage one of this study attempts to determine how well NZ and France have recovered from recent terrorist attacks in Christchurch and Nice and what are the key challenges in the recovery process. Part of this inquiry also examined what risk management strategies are in place to mitigate future terrorist attacks and how effective are these strategies?

Results: The recent terrorist attacks in France and NZ have highlighted the importance of BCP and DRP as an integral part of risk management. A well-coordinated, layered approach to managing the recovery process in which strong partnerships between the tourist industry and government is essential. Governments reports and academic research also argue that it is imperative to have a crisis management plan in place, establishing a tourism crisis management task force, and partnering with law enforcement officials. In terms of the effectiveness of the risk management strategies, the results are mixed. The main issue in both countries is the inability to anticipate possible terrorist risks. For example, the security surveillance on one group of individuals while ignoring others was clearly misplaced in the NZ situation. In France, there is lack of foresight to anticipate “soft” targets.

Keywords: tourism, terrorism, recovery, business continuity planning (BCP), disaster recovery planning (DRP), risk management

Pragmatic Decision Support Tools for Cyber Consequence and Risk Analysis
Jason Reinhardt, severine Bonin
Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, United States
Rigorous assessment of the risks posed by cyber threats are difficult to achieve. Past efforts have largely focused on performing historical assessments of the threat and vulnerability components of risk, with relatively little focus spent on consequence estimation. Improving consequence estimation is difficult because of a highly complex scenario space to consider, a poor understanding of the pathways and factors that link a specific system compromise to impacts and outcomes, broadly scoped or ill-defined metrics of concern, and a lack of frameworks for conceptualizing equivalencies across different consequence types to facilitate analysis of decision trade spaces. Regardless, decision-makers require pragmatic, systematic, principled, and repeatable frameworks to create an informed view of cyber risk in order to guide policy and fund investments in cyber defense. We are working with the United States Department of Homeland Security to create foundational frameworks that integrate qualitative and quantitative assessments in a scalable and consistent manner in order to enable pragmatic, and comprehensive, cyber risk assessments. These risk frameworks provide an important complement to efforts to improve data collection, analysis, and modeling for cyber threat scenarios. We will discuss our development and application of cyber consequence equivalence matrices, illustrate how those matrices can be used to provide a basis for cyber risk analysis, and explain how these frameworks can evolve with improving data sets, modeling, and simulation of cyber scenarios. SNL is managed and operated by NTESS under DOE NNSA contract DE-NA0003525.
Keywords: Cyber, Consequence, Decision
Tue, 15 Jun -11:15 - 12:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Risk Education

Is the Risk Subject its own Disciplinary Threat
Glenn-Egil Torgersen 1, Trygve Steiro 2, Leif Inge Magnussen 1
1 University of South-Eastern Norway, Horten, Norway
2 Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
This abstract was originally submitted and accepted for SRA- E 2020 and we are delighted to see that the theme for SRA E 2021 is “The Discipline(s) of Risk Science”. There are many definitions of risk. The best known is Risk = Probability x Consequence. Other definitions have a similar understanding, namely that frequency of events based on past experience is included as a basis for probability. The concept of risk loses its significance if an event has not happened before or is unimaginable. Thus, unforeseen events, with a high degree of unfamiliarity and no danger signals, will not involve a risk. It will have an impact on risk and vulnerability analyzes and assessments of threats in society as well as businesses, both in natural disasters, cyber and terror. Comprehensive studies of unforeseen incidents - which nevertheless occur, incidents that should not occur according to plans and risk analyzes, show that classical risk analysis and risk understanding are not sufficient. Furthermore, risk analyzes tend to stop with the pre-perspective, with its main focus on barriers and the time aspect before anything happens. The incident moment and the recovery phase come second. A new understanding and definition dimension are thus needed. Such an approach can be found in (among others Torgersen, 2015 and 2018).

However, the problem of classical risk analysis does not stop with just definition problems. The question is also whether risk analysis and classical risk understanding is really a professional discipline. And, it may be that the risk discipline has inherent basic structures that prevent necessary development and adaptation to not only new and complex threats, but also known and common undesirable events - where the probability is high? An analysis in light of the discipline methodology of Phillip Phenix (1988), with basic structural analysis in the light of "synthetic coordination" and "analytic simplification" shows that the risk subject has challenges with interdisciplinary approach and innovative adaptation. The discipline of risk itself is at risk of being its own threat (enemy).


Phenix, P. H. (1988). The Disciplines as Curriculum Content. In J. R. Gress & D. E. Purpel (Eds.), Curriculum. An Introduction To The Field (pp. 139-148). Berkeley: McCuthan Publishing Corporation.

Torgersen, G-E. (2018). Interaction: 'Samhandling' Under Risk: A Step Ahead of the Unforeseen. Oslo: Cappelen Damm,

Torgersen, G. E. (2015). Pedagogikk for det uforutsette [Pedagogy for the Unforeseen] Bergen: Fagbokforlaget.

Keywords: Education, Disciplinary, management, coordination

Risk as a concept in science education on socio-scientific issues
Linda Schenk 1, 2, Karim Hamza 3
1 KTH- Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
2 Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
3 Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Risk is a concept of high significance for us as citizens, Daily, we make multiple risk decisions, to avoid risks or to take a risk in order to gain benefits. Knowledge about the concept of risk and how risks are assessed and managed is thus relevant to all members of society and consequently as a topic in pre-university education. We present a scoping review of science education research on teaching about risk issues, conducted as part of a six-year multidisciplinary research project including two science teachers, three science education researchers and two researchers with risk assessment expertise (toxicology and radiation, respectively). Several contributions in the literature treated explicit teaching about risk and risk assessment, for example radiation risks in physics. More frequently, studies concerned teaching about risk in implicit rather than explicit terms, through teaching of so-called socio-scientific issues (SSIs). As the name implies SSIs concern social issues that relate to science around which there are controversies that lack an easily available, or single, resolution. Teaching about SSIs offers students experience in applying scientific and moral reasoning to socially relevant topics and practice their discussion and decision-making skills. But research on SSI teaching has been criticised for giving insufficient attention to the role of risk understanding and risk judgement in students’ decision-making. Through Web of Science we identified 296 empirical publications and 91 theoretical or review publications about SSI teaching in science education. The empirical publications covered studies performed in primary to tertiary school, most commonly upper secondary school (32%). The most frequently taught SSI themes were nature conservation, biotechnology and climate change. Despite that these, as most of the other identified themes, clearly are connected to risk analysis and risk management, few publications raised the concept of risk and the methods of risk analysis. In fact, almost half (empirical: 48%, theoretical: 49%) did not mention risk at all. To conclude, the literature on SSI teaching shows that risk issues provide valuable learning opportunities for science education. Furthermore, we argue that risk itself is a relevant topic and that risk should be given specific attention in science education research. Towards such an aim, science education practice and research targeting risk and SSIs would benefit from a stronger connection to previous research on the concept of risk and risk analysis.
Keywords: Socioscientific issues, K-12 education,

Risk education and competence development in the Western Balkan Countries
Mirjana Laban 1, Vlastimir Radonjanin 1, Mirjana Malesev 1, Sandra Nedeljkovic 2
1 University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Technical Sciences, Department for Civil Engineering and Geodesy, Novi Sad, Serbia
2 Government of the Republic of Serbia, Public Investment Management Office, Belgrade, Serbia
In the recent years the number and severity of natural and man-made disasters, as well as fires, has significantly increased all over the world and in the Balkans as well. Climate change, fast urbanization and new technologies, in interaction with irresponsible human activities, cause the need for multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary engineering competences, knowledge and skills.

In the same time, educational programmes offer has been pour, especially at the Western Balkans. Only a few higher educational institutions had developed professional or academic studies, but there was no doctoral study programme to provide research, innovation or new teaching staff and insure sustainability of existing bachelor and master programmes.

The resilience of the Western Balkans societies to hazards had to be improved, and that started by introducing new study programmes and lifelong learning courses in educational offer, which ensured national highly skilled professional resources and regional capacity for resilient society. Risk analysis and research are the basis of innovated and new established study programmes and lifelong education courses.

The subject area, Disaster Risk Management and Fire Safety Engineering, refers to Multidisciplinary/Interdisciplinary disciplines, with Engineering and engineering trades as the dominant academic discipline, while other disciplines addressed by curricula being Environmental protection, Architecture and Construction, Civil Protection, Fire Science, Climatology, Hydrology, Seismology and Economy. In this regard, the paper gives an overview on master programs related to the area, in the field of Civil Engineering, Environmental Protection, Sustainable development and Climate Change, Environmental Engineering and other related fields have been listed.

This research paper presents the state of the art in risk education and research at Western Balkans (Serbia, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina) and surrounding countries (North Macedonia, Croatia, Greece, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria), as well as the analysis of contemporary programmes in the risk area in other European countries (Denmark, Sweden, Slovakia, UK, Ireland, Norway, Spain, Germany, Netherland, Belgium, Italy, France, Czech Republic).

Even there is a significant progress in risk education and research in the last years, regarding the number of offered programmes; there is still a lack of cohesion in their purpose and delivery. Considering these, available higher education is still insufficient and unsustainable without modernizing and further development. To become resilient society, it is necessary to implement the common educational platform at European level and intensively cooperate and communicate, for which a new skilled young workforce is required, well prepared to cooperate in multilingual and multicultural environment.

Keywords: risk, resilience, education
Tue, 15 Jun -11:15 - 12:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Governance and Risks 3

National Risk Assessment Exercises and Existential Risks
Yee-Kuang Heng
University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
The category of "existential risk" has gained growing prominence in recent years. Cambridge University Centre for Study of Existential Risks; Oxford University Future of Humanity Institute, and the Future of Life Institute have projects studying such risks. Schubert (2019) has highlighted the psychological aspects of how laypeople think about human extinction. From a philosophical perspective, Ord (2020) proposed a moral framework to avoid falling over what he calls the “precipice”. Moynihan (2020) outlined the intellectual history behind prognoses of human extinction. However, existing literature remains largely silent on how governments and national risk assessment exercises might address this particularly alarming type of risk. This paper deploys a case study of two countries that have developed risk assessment and foresight capabilities in their government institutions: Singapore and the United Kingdom. Based on field interviews, document analysis and stakeholder mapping, it explores how both countries assess two “existential risks”: Climate Change and AI. In terms of theoretical and conceptual frameworks, this paper evaluates how far risk assessment architecture in both countries exhibit features of the matrix system of government and whole-of-government approaches (Christensen and Per Lægreid 2006). It also asks how far assessment of existential risks should not be confined to governmental agencies only, but also extend to include other institutions concerned with the economic, financial, social and political ramifications of risk (Renn & Klinke 2014). Preliminary results indicate that methodologies employed range from data-driven Big Data computer software; scenario and crowd-sourcing; perception surveys; to expert analysis and best-available science. The Singapore experience corroborates the findings of Cuhls (2019) that horizon scanning is increasingly automated using computer software to detect weak signals, with a strong focus on risk communication and education amongst all government agencies. Raising awareness of the so-called black elephant metaphor (Ho 2017) was also important to complement the well-known Black swan effect (Taleb 2007). The British experience with national risk registers suggests that there are limited opportunities for bottomup (i.e. non-governmental) engagement and the exclusion of long-term trends, such as climate change, due to the particular focus on short time periods and legislative mandates for civil contingency response (Wentworth & Stock 2019; personal interviews in London 2020). Both share similiarites in their determination to avoid strategic shocks (the BSE crisis and wildcat fuel strikes in the UK's case; SARS pandemics and uncovering of terrorist cells after 9/11 in Singapore's context).
Keywords: national risk assessment exercises; climate change; AI

A pitfall of integrating different approaches: how to avoid cherry-picking
Shin-etsu Sugawara
Kansai University, Osaka, Japan
As the discipline of risk science was developed and sophisticated, there has been an increase in the number of scientific theories around risk and safety. When faced with contested theories, we often try to pick the best of both. At first glance, it seems to be a reasonable idea rather than complete denial of one of them. The research question for this study is, however, does the complementary integration of heterogeneous thoughts in such a way always lead to better risk management and governance?

For instance, while the deterministic safety analysis has conventionally been the main stream in the field of nuclear safety, probabilistic approach has been attracting more attention reflecting the development of probabilistic risk assessment. Given its uncertainties and limitations, the core philosophy of risk-informed decision making clearly indicates not the total replacement of deterministic safety but the importance of incorporating risk insights into it.

A second example might be the concepts of Safety-I and Safety-II. The latter has been recently emerged when focusing on the positive aspects of human which had been downplayed or overlooked in the traditional world of Safety-I. Similarly, it is deemed important to integrate complementarily both approaches, instead of negating Safety-I.

What matters here is how to integrate or incorporate two different ways of thinking. Complementary integration could lead to a cross-fertilization if all goes well. If not, however, it might become a hazardous cherry-picking.

Through analyzing some cases of risk-informed decision making in nuclear safety, this paper will shed light on the importance of addressing squarely the contested insights from two heterogeneous approaches that we can evolve our safety philosophy and practice.

Keywords: Risk-informed decision making, risk governance, nuclear safety

“Safety First!... Will it Rate?!” An Exploration of Risk Management Decisions and Processes in the Television Industry
Emma Soane, Paul Willman
London School of Economics and Political Science, London, United Kingdom
Risk management practices have been prevalent in organizations for decades, yet there are numerous examples of failures, such as the explosions of the Challenge and Colombia space shuttles (Vaughan, 1999), the collapse of Enron (Kulik, 2005), and the 2008 financial crisis (Dionne, 2013). Grappling with the current global pandemic further highlights how risk management is critical to institutional and organizational functioning, and to stakeholder risk exposure. Recent theorizing describes risk in terms of a modern paradox comprising decisions about acceptance and mitigation (Zinn, 2019). However, the notion of paradox implies oppositional forces whereas reconceptualizing these forces as intertwined and complementary sheds new light on how they can be understood (Zhang, Waldman, Han & Li, 2015). We draw on Zhang et al. (2015) and propose that theorizing about risk management benefits from a similar treatment, and from a consideration of the process in terms of decisions made within organizational contexts (Wilden, Hohberger, Devinney & Lumineau, 2019). Hence, we explore the concept of risk management and consider the range of decisions and processes that it encompasses. We use a qualitative method to explore notions of risk, risk management and related decision processes. Participants were 282 employees and managers from 16 units within a television company where program formats involve a wide range of hazards to physical and mental health, as well as posing financial and reputational risks to the production units and the entire organization. Reflexive thematic analysis of qualitative data indicate that risk management comprises decisions that can be characterized in terms of properties of organizational environments, decision makers and decision processes. The outcomes of decisions function at individual, unit and organizational levels, and have both homogeneous and heterogeneous properties. Homogeneity is favorable when uniformity is a sought-after industry standard, such as low accident rates. Heterogeneity in areas such as creativity is valuable when it confers organizational differentiation and competitive advantage. However, the processes that lead to these outcomes have sequential and contemporaneous components which bring a range of intended and unintended consequences. We develop a model whereby the constructs comprising risk management are connected by processes that vary in the strength and nature of their alignment. Such variance relates to the effects of constrained and malleable resources, and the time-bound connections between the constructs. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of considering risk management in terms of contextualized decision making that enables attention to individual, unit and organizational outcomes.
Keywords: Risk management
Decision making
Decision processes
Tue, 15 Jun -11:15 - 12:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Probabilistic and Statistical Methods

Public Debt, Risky Interest-Growth Differentials and the Risk of Sovereign Insolvency
Jussi Lindgren
Ministerial Adviser, Prime Minister's Office Finland, and doctoral candidate, Aalto University School of Science, Helsinki, Finland
As public debt levels have increased, especially due to COVID-19, it is more and more important to consider the risks stemming from such high debt to GDP -ratios. I present a framework, in which the tools of stochastic optimal control theory are used to analyze the risks inherent in sovereign borrowing. The dynamical framework for the evolution of public debt is built from the well-known debt accounting identity. This deterministic dynamics is then interfered with "white noise" so that the interest-growth differential is risky. The government is assumed to apply a fiscal policy, in which the policy target is to drive down the public debt ratio in finite time while at the same time the primary imbalance is a running cost. The model can be solved analytically as it is a linear-quadratic stochastic optimal control model in continuous time (Riccati equations) and in particular, we can analyze the variance of the optimal process for the government debt ratio, which is a geometric Brownian motion with a deterministic time-dependent drift. The analysis of the variance helps to understand the risk of a sovereign insolvency. This analysis could be useful to debt managers, investors and fiscal policymakers alike. Finally, some policy recommendations in terms of risk management are given.

Keywords: fiscal policy, debt sustainability, credit risk, sovereign debt

More efficient nonparametric estimation of monotonic and/or concave quantile regression functions
Timo Kuosmanen, Sheng Dai, Xun Zhou
Aalto University School of Business, Espoo, Finland
Nonparametric quantile regression subject to monotonicity and/or concavity constraints has proved useful in many different application areas. The commonly used approaches such as the order-m and order-α estimators fit a frontier function to a subset of data, which results as inefficient utilization of the information in the full sample. This paper provides three contributions to improve efficiency of nonparametric estimation of monotonic and/or concave/convex quantile regression functions. First, we show how the convex expectile regression estimator can be extended to estimate non-convex monotonic quantile regression functions. Second, we show that nonparametric expectile regression provides a consistent and more efficient alternative to nonparametric quantile regression. Third, we compare the finite sample performances of alternative nonparametric quantile estimators subject to monotonicity and/or concavity constrains through Monte Carlo simulations. We find that monotonic quantile regression is superior to the order-α approach, both in terms of the mean squared error and finite sample bias. We also find that correctly imposed concavity assumption further improves performance. Finally, our simulations confirm our theoretical result about efficiency of nonparametric expectile regression relative to nonparametric quantile regression. Empirical application to US power plants demonstrates that the quantiles estimated by the order-α method can violate monotonicity.
Keywords: quantile risk measure, mathematical programming, Monte Carlo simulations

Math Matters! When a Small Mathematical Error has Big Consequences on Data Analysis, Regulation, and Risk-Based Protection of Public Health
Philip Schmidt, William Anderson, Monica Emelko
University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada
The treatment performance of technologies that remove or inactivate pathogens can vary substantially over time, among parallel treatment units, or between systems. This variability is commonly condensed to an average log-reduction, which corresponds to the geometric mean of the fraction of pathogens reaching the final product (e.g. drinking water, food). It is known, however, that it is the arithmetic mean of this fraction that relates to the risk of developing infection rather than the geometric mean. This leads to a mathematical discrepancy between commonly reported average log-reduction values and practically relevant average treatment performance that has been noted by some researchers but not comprehensively explored. We found many instances where the average of several log-reduction (or log-removal) values are used to represent average performance, including United States Environmental Protection Agency guidance manuals and state regulations that specifically require it. It has also been common to conduct hypothesis tests on average log-reduction (e.g. to test if one technology is better than another). Finally, literature-based average log-reduction values are routinely used in drinking water QMRA as default values when system-specific treatment data are unavailable.

In addition to the above survey of scientific and regulatory literature, we explored the consequences of misinterpreting average log-reduction as a measure of average treatment performance. A series of simple mass balance models showed that average log-reduction could over-estimate average removal or disinfection by an order of magnitude or more. Jensen’s inequality was used to prove that average log-reduction characteristically overstates average treatment performance. It was discovered that comparing average log-reductions of treatment technologies in a hypothesis test could yield misleading results, such as when a technology has significantly better average log-reduction, but poorer average performance. This can affect scientific development of treatment technologies or misinform decision-making about alternative treatment technologies. Finally, we explored the effect of using average log-reduction as a point-estimate of treatment performance in QMRA. Recent guidance from the World Health Organization included an illustrative example using a literature-based average log-reduction value in QMRA to evaluate the sufficiency of water treatment for Cryptosporidium oocysts. It was thusly concluded that the treatment provided exceeded the risk-based calculation of required treatment. However, reanalysis of the example using the full distribution of log-reduction values from which the utilized average log-reduction value was computed leads to an opposite conclusion that not enough treatment is provided because average log-reduction over-stated average performance by 0.9-log.

Keywords: quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA); drinking water; food; treatment; log-reduction
Tue, 15 Jun -12:00 - 12:45
- SRA-E General Assembly
Tue, 15 Jun -12:45 - 14:15
Panel - The Discipline(s) of Risk Science
Tue, 15 Jun -14:30 - 16:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Cross-national and -cultural insights into public risk perception of Covid-19 and responses to public health measures

Secondary Risk Perception and Vaccine Hesitancy
Sonny Rosenthal 1, Christopher Cummings 2, 3
1 Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
2 North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States
3 Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United States
Vaccine hesitancy may arise over concerns about vaccine efficacy and safety. Concerns over safety may reflect perceptions of real or imagined side-effects, or secondary risks. This talk presents two studies about secondary risk perception, which can help explain vaccine hesitancy. The first study developed and tested secondary risk theory. Individuals from Singapore and the United States participated in a framing experiment, explaining the intention to take vaccines for dengue fever, chikungunya, bacterial meningitis, and cholera. When side effects were framed as mild or unlikely, protection motivation theory adequately predicted vaccination intention. However, when they were framed as severe and, especially, both severe and likely, protection motivation theory performed poorly. In those cases, accounting for secondary risk perceptions restored the explanatory power. The overall model performed similarly between the two samples, but there were some disease-specific differences. The second study, conducted in July 2020, examined COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in relation to the rapidity of vaccine development. Participants read statements about a hypothetical COVID-19 vaccine becoming available “next week,” “in one year,” or “in two years.” Then they reported perceived vaccine efficacy, self-efficacy, and secondary risk. The general pattern was that the “next week” option had the lowest rating for perceived vaccine efficacy and self-efficacy and the highest rating for perceived secondary risk. However, vaccination intention did not differ among the groups. These studies suggest secondary risk theory is useful for explaining attitudinal and affective components of vaccine hesitancy. It can also explain behavioral intention, but situational factors may dictate to what extent.
Keywords: secondary risk theory, protection motivation theory, vaccine hesitancy, COVID-19

Impact of trust, cultural worldviews and risk perception on the acceptance of measures aiming to reduce the impact of COVID-19
Michael Siegrist, Angela Bearth
ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
After the outbreak of COVID-19, most countries implemented measures aiming at reducing the number of infected people. In Spring 2020, we conducted a longitudinal survey with four waves in Switzerland. We found that people with individualistic worldviews, high general trust, low social trust, low level of perceived risks and the conviction that other risks than health risks were neglected had less acceptance for the implemented measures compared with people having the opposite values on the variables mentioned (N=1223). We further demonstrated that reduced risk perceptions and a decline in social trust were important drivers for the reduction in the acceptance of the measures at survey wave 2 compared with survey wave 1. We could also show that changes in perceived risks between survey wave 1 and survey wave 4 (N=728) resulted in a decline in self-reported hygiene behavior in survey wave 4 compared with survey wave 1. Our results suggest that perceived health risks are important for the acceptance of different measures implemented during a pandemic. Furthermore, the importance of worldviews and trust for public acceptance of the measures further suggest that a political discussion about the implemented measures would be essential.

A longitudinal study on the drivers and barriers of wearing a facemask during the Swiss Covid-19 pandemic
Angela Bearth, Michael Siegrist
Consumer Behavior, Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
One of the measures in reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is wearing a facemask in confined public spaces, such as in shops and on public transportation. In Switzerland, the recommendations and regulations regarding facemasks varied over time based on the available scientific knowledge about the spread of the virus and facemask availability. This variability in recommendations and regulations might have had implications for people’s perceptions and willingness to wear a facemask in different situations. In this study, longitudinal data from Switzerland is presented (four data collection waves, final sample: N = 728) with a focus on the dynamic changes in people’s willingness to wear facemasks from the onset of the pandemic and national lockdown to the easing of most restrictions. Moreover, the study links people’s willingness to wear a facemask in mandatory and non-mandatory situations to various drivers and barriers (e.g., costs, personal risk perception, expected efficacy). The results suggest that the most important barriers to people’s willingness to wear a facemask in public spaces were a low personal risk perception and the effects of the initial communication by officials that the facemask does not protect from infection. Thus, the study offers insights into the effects of national risk communication on people’s willingness to comply with public health measures.
Keywords: Covid-19, risk perception, facemask, public health

Perceiving political polarization within the context of COVID-19 is associated with individuals’ pandemic responses and attitudes in the U.S.
Lauren Lutzke 1, Alex Segrè Cohen 1, Caitlin Drummond 2, Joe Árvai 1
1 University of Southern California, Los Angeles, United States
2 Arizona State University, Tempe, United States
Public health experts and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) serve as non-partisan guides in addressing public health challenges, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, Americans’ responses to their recommendations have varied, largely along party lines: prior research has found that Republicans are less likely to engage in COVID-19 risk prevention strategies like social distancing and mask-wearing. Less studied, however, is how a person perceives a political division in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic and then bases their judgments and choices on these perceptions. Via an online survey of adults in the U.S. (N = 857), conducted in May of 2020, we investigated whether perceiving a divide in how Democrats and Republicans evaluated the risk of COVID-19 was associated with participants’ pandemic responses and attitudes toward non-partisan entities. We found that those who perceived greater partisan polarization reported less trust in U.S. public health experts, less trust in the scientific models used to predict the spread of COVID-19, and less adherence to the CDC’s behavioral guidelines. These associations, however, depended on a participant’s political orientation. Specifically, perceived polarization was not a significant predictor among Democrats, but was associated with less trust and adherence to CDC guidelines among Republicans. We will discuss the implications of these results, particularly in relation to communication strategies used by the media and among politicians.
Keywords: COVID-19, Perceived polarization, Political polarization, Risk communication

Sex Differences in COVID-19 perception and prevention in the United States
Alex Segrè Cohen 1, Lauren Lutzke 1, Caitlin Drummond 2, Joe Arvai 1
1 University of Southern California, Los Angeles, United States
2 Arizona State University, Tempe, United States
While appropriate preventative behaviors, like mask-wearing and social distancing, are necessary for mitigating the risks from COVID-19, the performance of these behaviors in the United States has varied. This variance can be seen across many sociopolitical factors; one well documented in risk literature but not systematically applied to the context of COVID-19 is how different sexes perceive risks and act accordingly. We investigate this relationship between a person’s sex, perceived COVID-19 risk and preventative behaviors. From a representative sample of 1,000 adults in the United States, which was conducted during the initial peak of the COVID-19 pandemic (May 2020), we found that sex predicted risk perceptions and the performance of behaviors recommended by the United States Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC): those who reported their sex as male perceived lower general concern around COVID-19 as well as lower perceived risk of contraction and also reported lower levels of compliance of preventative behaviors recommended by the CDC. As more scientific information emerged about COVID-19 since these data were collected in May, risk perceptions and preventative behaviors may have shifted. Thus, we use a second round of data, collected in November 2020, to test how the relationship between a person’s sex and their risk perceptions and behavioral responses toward COVID-19 may have changed over time; we also study whether the low risk perceptions observed among males in May were associated with higher COVID-19 infection rates in November. The results from this research can be used to inform more targeted risk communication strategies, and improved risk messaging surrounding preventative behaviors for COVID-19 and future pandemics.
Keywords: risk perceptions, sex differences, COVID-19, risk communication
Tue, 15 Jun -14:30 - 16:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Risk Education for Kids and Teenagers: Results from New Research

Do Climate Crisis Risk Programmes in Schools Play a Role in Changing Risk-Related thought and behaviour?
Helene Joffe 1, Frederic Bouder 2, Ragner Lofstedt 3
1 UCL, London, United Kingdom
2 Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway
3 Kings College London, London, United Kingdom
It is assumed that risk science can make a positive impact on the school curriculum in a variety of ways. We engaged pre-teens in London, UK and British Columbia, Canada with a number of concepts and issues relevant to them, regarding climate change risk. The goal was to enable them think in a more sophisticated way (1) concerning spatial, temporal and personal discounting mechanisms, that allow the problem to be perceived as irrelevant to oneself and therefore not acted on; (2) regarding uses and misuses of probability theory (3) in relation to complex issues such as risk-risk trade-offs and risk transfers. Finally, we aimed to empower these pre-teens to alight on practices that they could adopt to reduce their carbon footprint. The programme constituted three interactive sessions with each pre-teen in the intervention group in the UK and Canada. These pre-teens received a questionnaire before and then after the sessions in order to capture whether changes had occurred in the sophistication of their thinking and in their reported climate change-related behaviours. A matched control group were not given the sessions but filled in the questionnaires at the two time points. The findings will be presented, with an eye to whether this didactic form of engagement plays a role in shaping the ways that risks are analysed and acted upon.
Keywords: School Risk Programme; Cross-Cultural Study

Risk education as part of risk science :
Frederic Bouder
University of Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway
As early as the 1980s, Israeli psychologists conducted experiments focusing on helping kids to make better decisions when faced with the risk of terrorism. Today, the interest for teaching kids and adolescents about risk has spread and deepened. Professionals and scholars are bringing the concepts of risk to schools, from Oregon to the UK and from the Netherlamds to Denmark. Pas experiments have focused on several problems, from terrorism to natural disasters or ordinary life situations. Among current interventions, Climate Change is emerging as a key topic, which reflects ts societal salience. Risk, as a distinct discipline and emerging science has a key role to play to ensure that these initiatives remain science-informed. SRA and SRA Europe can is at the forefront of the most recent efforts to develop a conceptual and policy relevant approach to risk education. Yet, many questions remain unsolved: how does risk teaching relate to the field of risk studies? Are its theoretical foundations only to be found in psychology? What is the actual impact on children? How can they be scientifically evaluated from a risk research perspective? How can these results be then translated into education policy? One risk is that these initiatives may wither or that they may not be underpinned by solid evidence. This presentation will offer some reflections about the way forward.
Keywords: Risk education
Risk Science
Tue, 15 Jun -14:30 - 16:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - How can we enhance the integrated management of safety and security in the high-risk industries?

How can we enhance the integrated management of safety and security in the high-risk industries?
Marja Ylönen
Technical Research Centre of Finland, VTT, Espoo, Finland
This symposium is inspired by the SAF€RA 4STER research project on integrated management of safety and security in the Seveso plants.[1] Seveso III Directive from 2012 obliges operators to demonstrate that they have identified the major accident risks/hazards and that they have taken necessary measures to prevent those accidents. Currently, Seveso plants identify technical and human failures, however, operators are not obliged to deal with security threats caused by human bad intentions, in their safety reports. This can be interpreted as a challenge due to identified convergence of safety and security issues in the process-industries that may lead to major accidents. Therefore, there is an increasing interest in the integrated safety and security management in the Seveso plants and high-risk industries, largely.

The following questions arise: How are safety and security threats managed in the high-risk industries? What is the current state of integrated safety and security management in the high-risk industries? How can we enhance the integrated management in the high-risk industries, such as Seveso sites? What are the pros and cons of integrated management?

The symposium gathers together researchers, representative of regulatory body and the industry to discuss the current state of integrated management of safety and security, its strengths and weaknesses, as well as ways to enhance the management.

[1] Project partners are Technical Research Centre of Finland, VTT, University of Bologna and University of Roma Campus Biomedico from Italy, and TNO from the Netherlands. It is a question of two-year research project, funded by the Industrial Safety Platform (SAF€RA) and funders, such as Finnish Chemicals Agency, Finnish Work Environment Fund, Italian INAIL.

Keywords: Safety, security, integrated management

Integrated management of safety and security in the Seveso plants: Interviews and the literature review
Marja Ylönen 1, Minna Nissilä 2, Jouko Heikkilä 3, Nadezhda Gotcheva 4
1 Technical Research Centre of Finland, VTT, Espoo, Finland
2 Technical Research Centre of Finland, VTT, Tampere, Finland
3 Technical Research Centre of Finland, VTT, Tampere, Finland
4 Technical Research Centre of Finland, VTT, Tampere, Finland
This research project on Integrated management of safety and security in the Seveso Plants is motivated by the threats deriving from terrorism, internal malevolence, leading more industry sectors to grapple with the challenge of managing security and safety concerns in a coordinated manner. Furthermore, the digitalization creates new safety and security challenges, such as the TRITON virus, which recently attacked industrial Safety Instrumental System. Indeed, security of industrial sites, and in particular the security of the chemical and process industry has become a matter of increasing concern in recent years. Besides, the convergence of safety and security issues has been acknowledged as a potential cause for major accidents.

The objective of the study is to find solutions to the challenge of managing safety and security concerns in a coordinated manner, as well as to examine how impacts of digitalisation for safety and security of the plants are understood and identified.

The study consists of the following methodologies: First, fundamental features of safety and security management is researched via case studies based on interviews with regulators and safety and security experts in companies. These illuminate how and when safety management, culture and requirements are at odds with those of the security management. The method is a qualitative content analysis. Second, a survey is conducted on attitudes and awareness of European process industries as regards cyber-physical security threats and the work-related safety of employees. Quantitative research methods are exploited in the analysis. Third, security-related scenarios concerning intentional interferences are studied. Different risk analysis methods are used for this purpose (e.g. event trees and consequence analysis models). Tentative findings of three work packages will be presented.

This presentation focuses on research results gathered from the interviews with the representatives of Seveso sites and the literature review on safety and security as well integrated management of safety and security.

Keywords: Safety, security, integrated management

Integrated management of safety and security in the Seveso plants: Scenarios
Marja Ylönen 1, Jouko Heikkilä 2, Minna Nissilä 3, Nadezhda Gotcheva 4
1 Technical Research Centre of Finland, VTT, Espoo, Finland
2 Technical Research Centre of Finland, VTT, Tampere, Finland
3 Technical Research Centre of Finland, VTT, Tampere, Finland
4 Technical Research Centre of Finland, VTT, Tampere, Finland
This research project on Integrated management of safety and security in the Seveso Plants is motivated by the threats deriving from terrorism, internal malevolence, leading more industry sectors to grapple with the challenge of managing security and safety concerns in a coordinated manner. Furthermore, the digitalization creates new safety and security challenges, such as the TRITON virus, which recently attacked industrial Safety Instrumental System. Indeed, security of industrial sites, and in particular the security of the chemical and process industry has become a matter of increasing concern in recent years. Besides, the convergence of safety and security issues has been acknowledged as a potential cause for major accidents.

The objective of the study is to find solutions to the challenge of managing safety and security concerns in a coordinated manner, as well as to examine how impacts of digitalisation for safety and security of the plants are understood and identified.

The study consists of the following methodologies: First, fundamental features of safety and security management is researched via case studies based on interviews with regulators and safety and security experts in companies. These illuminate how and when safety management, culture and requirements are at odds with those of the security management. The method is a qualitative content analysis. Second, a survey is conducted on attitudes and awareness of European process industries as regards cyber-physical security threats and the work-related safety of employees. Quantitative research methods are exploited in the analysis. Third, security-related scenarios concerning intentional interferences are studied. Different risk analysis methods are used for this purpose (e.g. event trees and consequence analysis models). Tentative findings of three work packages will be presented.

This presentation focuses on security-related scenarios related to past accident analysis, as well as other methods used in the identification and mitigation of security and safety risks. In addition, ideas and methods for identification of security-related scenarios will be discussed.

Keywords: Safety, security, integrated management

Integrated safety and security management: Benefits and challenges
Nadezhda Gotcheva 1, Marja Ylönen 2, Minna Nissilä 3, Jouko Heikkilä 4
1 Technical Research Centre of Finland, VTT, Tampere, Finland
2 Technical Research Centre of Finland, VTT, Espoo, Finland
3 Technical Research Centre of Finland, VTT, Tampere, Finland
4 Technical Research Centre of Finland, VTT, Tampere, Finland
Traditionally, fundamental features of safety and security have been different: while safety focuses on unintentional hazards, security focuses on intentional threats. However, when organizations are facing multi-dimensional threats that are difficult to detect, safety and security risks are getting increasingly intertwined. Systems are expected to be safe and reliable, that is, to do no harm and to work properly within a range of inputs and situations, and yet to sustain and recover from malicious attacks and security breaches.

This paper presents preliminary results from studying recent approaches to integrated safety and security management and culture in the literature, and highlighting benefits and challenges of the integrated approach. The research question is “how can safety and security management be linked?”

Recently, a number of studies focused attention on the importance of dealing in an integrative manner with security and safety issues in different contexts. Many scholars have advocated for developing integrated approaches to safety and security management in high-risk domains. Gifei et al. (2017) proposed a unitary concept that integrates Quality Management System (QMS), Safety Management System (SMS) and the Cyber Security System (CSMS). Song et al., (2019a) emphasized the influence of the interaction of safety and security on managerial decision making and considering the synergy of accidental and intentional abnormal events and their management in hazardous processing facilities. Khripunov (2018) highlighted that safety and security cultures have many common principles, e.g. questioning attitude, rigorous and prudent approaches, or effective communication. Still, the goals of safety and security programs may at times conflict or otherwise have mutually exclusive objectives - transparency is of value for safety management yet from security perspective it may be classified as disclosure that could increase the attractiveness of the site for malicious attacks. Van Nunen et al. (2018) proposed a conceptual framework for physical security culture, based on an integrative model of safety culture (Vierendeels et al., 2018), which brings together security threats, technology, organisation and human aspects.

Regarding benefits and challenges of the integrated approach to safety and security management, Field (2019) suggested this approach a) prevents duplication of effort; b) allows more efficient use of senior management time; c) uses resources to implement and manage systems more efficiently; d) reduces audit fatigue; e) enables a united management approach, and j) achieves more cost-effective certification. The results of this study provide initial basis for the development of an integrated framework for safety and security management.

Keywords: Safety, security, integrated management
Tue, 15 Jun -16:15 - 17:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Governance and Risks 4

Are they doing enough? A survey on trust in the Swedish government during the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic
Minna Lundgren
Mid Sweden University Risk and Crisis Research Centre, Östersund, Sweden
While lockdowns have been imposed in many countries in the world to prevent the transmission of the

novel coronavirus, Sweden remained relatively open. The public was expected to follow a set of

recommendations issued by the Public Health Authority in order to prevent virus transmission.

Meanwhile, calls for stricter measures were made in public debate. Sweden is among the countries in the

world where the public holds the highest levels of trust in the government. In this situation, it was

interesting to know whether these high levels of trust would remain during the corona virus pandemic,

and if the levels of trust varied in different groups in society.

This presentation focuses trust in the government and expert authorities' abilities to handle the

coronavirus pandemic in Sweden. I draw on data from a survey conducted dluring the end of March and

early April 2020. The survey was distributed digitally through convenience sampling and the result was

analyzed using SPSS. The respondents could choose to answer the survey either in Swedish or in English ,

French, German, Russian, Turkish or Arabic. With a total of 1920 respondents, 84.5 percent, or 1622

responded in Swedish, and 298 chose to answer in any of the other languages. The results show that

language appeared to be an important factor concerning trust in the governments and the expert

authorities' ability to manage the coronavirus pandemic. Compared to the respondents who answered the

survey in any other language (grouped together) than Swedish those who answered in Swedish showed

significantly higher trust in both the government and expert authorities. There were furthermore

significant differences between the extent of trust in the government between women and men, with

women answering in another language in Sweden displaying the lowest levels of trust for the



Navigating systemic risks – Governance of and for systemic risks
Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam, Germany
Systemic risks are the unintended by-products of current transformation processes. They originate and evolve in the nexus of tightly-coupled dynamic systems. Systemic risks are complex, transboundary, and nonlinear risk phenomena, which exhibit tipping points and cascading effects. However, they lack adequate governance approaches and policy measures. Risk analysis of systemic risks needs to pay particular attention to feedback mechanisms between components of a system at the intra-system level and at the interaction with other systems at the inter-system level which result in transboundary cascading effects. Governance of systemic risks must therefore be concerned with the analysis of embedded systems as well as procedural considerations of inclusion and deliberation as well as closure. The salient features of reflection, iteration, inclusion, transparency and accountability have been identified as guiding principles for governance processes concerned with systemic risks. The presentation proposes a procedural architecture for governance which addresses the challenges of complexities, uncertainties and ambiguities associated with systemic risks.
Keywords: systemic risks, risk governance, complexity, systems thinking

Applying Design Thinking Principles to Develop Interdisciplinary Risk Management Solutions
Jordan Fischer 3, Matthew Van Der Tuyn 2, D.S. Nicholas 1
1 Drexel University, Westphal, College of Media Arts and Design, Philadellphia, United States
2 Penn Medicine Center for Health Care Innovation, University of Pennsylvania Health System, Philadelphia, United States
3 Drexel University, Thomas R. Kline School of Law, Philadelphia, United States
Risk concepts continue to grow in prominence, both in understanding challenges across a wide range of disciplines and identifying solutions to address those challenges. However, to date, there have been few attempts to create concrete methodologies to harness the value of risk thinking to adapt and strengthen solutions. Conversely, the field of design thinking is built on a core framework of iterative problem definition and problem solving, developed through cycles of gathering, analyzing and conceptualizing relevant solutions within a human centered complex problem area. Design thinking, and design processes, bring a structured innovation approach to any problem through engaging with methods and tools to empathize and understand peoples lived experiences, create human-centered solutions, and de-risk failure through prototyping.

Our research combines existing approaches to risk and risk management with core design thinking principles mentioned above to provide a new hybrid methodology to address risk across a wide variety of disciplinary problem solving scenarios . By interweaving design theory and process into existing risk frameworks, our goal is to derive a novel praxis of communicating and addressing risk that can be leveraged to rethink difficult problems and create more robust and effective solutions within multiple disciplines.

Specifically, this research project within the healthcare industry explores the congruencies possible within risk consideration and design thinking to synthesize a novel and workable framework that can be expanded to additional sectors and industries. Drawing on past research on applying risk to identify healthcare challenges, our research expands the use of risk by incorporating design methods such as contextual inquiry, problem identification, and rapid validation to test assumptions about challenges and potential solutions.

In this presentation, we will lay out our initial research into the combination of risk and design thinking disciplines including prototypical investigative application within a pilot project in Fall 2020. The presentation will identify the value of our risk-design thinking methodology to create innovative and effective solutions to address challenges in healthcare technology and service design. Ultimately, this new methodology to address risk will allow for the creation of a more systematic and cross-disciplinary approach that will equalize risk, creating a framework that can be harnessed and compared across disciplines, industries, and provide a method to equalize risk across the many challenge areas that prove to be pitfalls in today’s complex decision making environment.

Keywords: Design; Risk Theory
Tue, 15 Jun -16:15 - 17:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Cyber Risks

The “privacy paradox” in the technological context of mobile apps
Vanessa Ayres-Pereira 1, Angelo Pirrone 1, Max Korbmacher 1, Hanna Seidler 2, Shna Latif 1, Ingvar Tjøstheim 3, Gisela Böhm 1, 4
1 Department of Psychosocial Science, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
2 Department of Economics and Managements, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
3 Norwegian Computing Center, Oslo, Norway
4 Department of Psychology, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Lillehammer, Norway
Mobile apps and their permissions can pose a security risk since they govern what a mobile device can do and access. Here we are interested in elucidating the factors that underlie the likelihood to install a mobile app. We focus on the interplay between privacy concerns, perceived importance of an app, permissions that an app requires, and level of discomfort that arises from the number of permissions requested and/or granted. Participants (N = 441) were presented with three fictional apps and for each app, they were either informed of which permissions the app required to work or were asked to indicate which permissions they were willing to provide to the app for it to work. Besides, they were asked how important such an app was for them, how important it was for them that the app secured privacy, and how likely they were to install that app. Finally, we asked participants to indicate their level of discomfort associated with different app permissions, and their general concern about data privacy. In our investigation, we found that participants understand what app permissions are necessary and/or reasonable for specific apps, and what permissions are instead unnecessary. Furthermore, both in general and with regards to a specific app, participants reported a high concern for data privacy. However, only the perceived importance of an app determined the likelihood to install an app to any substantial degree, regardless of the privacy concern. Also, the number of permissions and the level of discomfort associated with an app did not affect the likelihood to install an app, regardless of whether participants were informed of which permissions the app required, or whether they actively needed to decide which permissions were granted to the app. This result is in line with the privacy paradox, which refers to a well-documented inconsistency between expressed attitudes towards privacy and actual behavior. The implications of these results will be discussed, especially regarding the importance of promoting data protection by design and by default in the development of new technologies, in line with recent legislation such as the General Data Protection Regulation.

The classification of cyber risks: a social science perspective
Kirill Gavrilov 1, 2, Maria Butynko 3
1 National Research University – Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
2 Institute of Sociology of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
3 KGU Infogorod, Moscow, Russia
There are different classifications of cyber risks and related phenomena in scientific literature (Deibert, Rohozinski 2010; Jahankhani et al., 2014). Our work makes several contributions to this field:

1. We present a review of the existing classifications and basic distinctions underlying them. E.g. Wall (2005) differentiates between types of cyber risks according to the impact of the Internet: it can provide (a) more opportunities for traditional crime, (b) new opportunities for traditional crime and (c) new opportunities for new types of crime (see also: Brenner 2001, 2005). Another example is the distinction between risks to cyberspace and risks through cyberspace (Deibert, Rohozinski 2010). We claim that the majority of these classifications are technology-centered and lack several aspects crucial for social science research.

2. To overcome this flaw we propose several additional distinctions. First, cyber risks imply threat to diverse types of entities: individuals, organizations or societies / countries. This distinction is related to the key levels of social reality: micro, meso and macro (Ritzer 1988, p. 512-518). We argue that the perception of cyber risks and ways to mitigate them heavily depend on which entity is at risk. The second distinction refers to the decision as the key feature of risk (Luhmann 1993) and the notion of control (Alicke 2000). The combination of these two distinctions gives fruitful insights. E.g. the exposure to computer viruses is a risk for an individual, but DDoS attacks are not (although these attacks may harm him).

3. Results from our empirical research (online survey with a convenience sample, n=2000) illustrate the helpfulness of the abovementioned distinctions. Concepts of decision and control operationalized in such variables as the ability to avoid some risk, voluntariness (Slovic 1987, 2000) and blameworthiness of victims are characteristics that indeed differentiate the perception of cyber risks by laypeople. E.g. perceived voluntariness differentiates cyber risks the most: the least voluntary are hacker attacks and viruses, the most ones – computer games.

As a conclusion we claim that focus on levels of entities at risk and concepts of decision and control might reveal “blind spots” of current research. E.g. studies of cyberbullying (Kowalski et al., 2014) or risks to users’ privacy (Young & Quan-Haase 2013) are widespread, but other individual and within-control risks, such as exposure to social engineering or use of unreliable account protection methods, are underrepresented in social sciences research.

Keywords: cyber risk, risk classification, social sciences, risk perception

Representations of cyber risk in the news
Max Boholm
Gothenburg Reseach Institute University of Gothenburg, Göteborg, Sweden
As society has become increasingly digitalized, cyber risk has emerged as a public concern. This presentation addresses how cyber risk and security issues are represented in three major newspapers in Sweden (Aftonbladet, Göteborgs Posten, and Svenska Dagbladet), during the last 25 years (1994-2019; sample size: 1279 articles). Based on frame semantics and relational theories of risk and security, newspaper texts are analysed with respect to a risk and security (RS) frame, which consists of analytical categories, such as Threat, Value at stake, Protective agents and means, Seriousness (of Threat), Impacts (of Threats), and Cited source. Each article of the sample has been annotated with the analytical categories of the RS frame. The study provides a longitudinal account of the Swedish newspaper discourse on cyber risks, with respect to which threats, values at stake, protective means etc. that dominate. Overall newspaper reporting on cyber risk has increased during the analysed time period. Main threats referred to in the newspaper texts are “hackers” (and “hacking”), “crime”, “fraud”, “intrusion”, “attacks”, “theft”, “viruses”, “worms”, “trojans”, and “spam” (in Swedish). Among the top values at stake we find objects like “computers”, “systems” and “(sensitive) information”, organisations like “banks”, “companies” and “agencies”, and persons, for example, referred to by pronouns “us” and “you”, and nominals (e.g. “customer” and “private person”). The main protective agents represented in the texts are the police, and security services (e.g. Swedish SÄPO and the FBI in the USA). While some threats are rather constant throughout the years, for example, “hackers” and “intrusion”, there are also trends in how cyber risk is represented. One trend is increasing militarization and “stateification”. Increasingly, nations are represented as threats (e.g. China and Russia) and as values at stake (e.g. Sweden). Cyber threats are increasingly formulated in terms of “attacks” and there is an increased reference to “espionage” and “cyberwar” (and related concepts like “cyber soldiers”). Although “crime” is a frequent threat throughout the material, reference to cybercrime has decreased during the analysed time period. Finally, the media reporting reflects developments in technical “innovations” by malicious agents and their countermeasures. For example, “spam” and “viruses” mostly appear as threats in the first decade of the millennium.
Keywords: cybersecurity; text analysis; media representations
Tue, 15 Jun -16:15 - 17:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Risk Communication 1

Strategies for communicating inherently uncertain climate information: Results from a systematic review
Samuel Domingos 1, Astrid Kause 2, 3, 4, 5, Wändi Bruine de Bruin 6, Neha Mittal 4, 5, Jason Lowe 4, 7, Fai Fung 7
1 William James Center for Research, ISPA, Lisboa, Portugal, Lisboa, Portugal
2 Centre for Decision Research, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK, Leeds, United Kingdom
3 Harding Center for Risk Literacy, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany, Berlin, Germany
4 Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, UK, Leeds, United Kingdom
5 School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK, Leeds, United Kingdom
6 Sol Price School of Public Policy and Department of Psychology, University of Southern California, US, Los Angeles, United States
7 Met Office UK, Exeter, United Kingdom
Introduction: Because decision makers in governmental and non-governmental institutions as well as members of the general public need to adapt to a changing climate, it is important to better understand how they interpret communications with inherently uncertain climate information. In a systematic literature review, we summarized how communicating uncertainty affected participants’ understanding of and responses to climate information, and how those varied with specific individual-difference characteristics (e.g., climate change beliefs, political ideology, or numerical skills). We also indicated evidence-based strategies for communicating inherently uncertain climate information.

Method: We systematically searched for experimental studies on the topic of climate change communication in the databases SCOPUS, Web of Science, and PsychINFO. We focused on articles which reported studies that presented participants with some type of inherently uncertain climate information, as well as reviews that summarized such studies. We coded studies according to systematic review guidelines, including sample demographics, types of inherently uncertain climate information presented, measures of users’ responses to that information, and measures of individual differences reported.

Results: The reviewed studies were mostly conducted in the global North. They focused mainly on uncertainty stemming from conflicting information (e.g., diverging model estimates or experts) or from expressions of imprecision (e.g., ranges). Participants tended to be more responsive to inherently uncertain climate information if they had lower conservative political ideology, better numerical skills, or stronger beliefs about man-made climate change. Recommendations presented with those studies pertained to various aspects, such as how to verbally describe uncertainties, and how to present numbers, ranges, probabilities, and graphical representations of uncertain climate information. For example, recipients’ understanding may be better if climate communications describe wide ranges as ‘likely to be correct’ rather than as conveying ‘more uncertainty’; present verbal probability expressions (e.g., ‘very likely’) with their numerical interpretation, including lower and upper bounds (e.g., 66-100%’ rather than >66%); or present climate projection ranges through simple visualizations.

Conclusion: Our systematic review provides an overview of the research produced on communication of inherently uncertain climate information. The experimental studies reviewed offer important insights and recommendations about how to effectively communicate this type information to audiences without a background in climate science. They also demonstrate that the design of such communications must acknowledge individual differences in the target audience. Integrating such knowledge in the development of future communications makes it more likely that target audiences understand communications they need for adapting to a changing climate.

Keywords: uncertainty; risk communication; climate change

Putting risk communication research into practice: development and evaluation of a blog to promote food risk prevention at home
Barbara Tiozzo, Mirko Ruzza, Giulia Mascarello, Valentina Rizzoli, Mosè Giaretta, Licia Ravarotto
Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, Legnaro, Italy
Online information sources (e.g. websites, social media) can play an important role when health authorities need to reach a broad range of consumers about risks for public health from food. Particularly, blogs are good for informing and engaging with interested parties and during crises, and in some cases people assign a higher degree of credibility to coverage reported in blogs than in conventional stream of media.

This project intended to set up a blog that would serve as a risk communication tool to help people recognising and preventing food risks in everyday life. To this extend, the following four-step approach was adopted:

  1. Formative research. Focus groups were conducted to investigate how people get informed about food risk and to collect insights for the development of the blog.
  2. Analysis of online food risk communication. Web monitoring, content analysis and data visualisation were applied to identify top line food risk topics, how they are discussed and by which sources. Food risk turned out to be an online wide covered and multi-faceted topic: data acquisition returned 12,163 contents, mainly talking about nutritional aspects, outbreaks, controls and alerts, and chemical risks. Thematic sources were among the most active sources, together with sources of generalist news.
  3. Blogging activity and content promotion. The “Sale, pepe & sicurezza” blog ( was set up and edited by both risk communication and food safety experts; food risk contents were regularly posted according to both people’s insights (step 1) and trending topics (step 2), that were translated into practical advices. A Facebook campaign, SEO activity and additional features were run to engage with readers and enhance content sharing.
  4. Evaluation of the communication activities. Data from Google Analytics and Facebook Insights were analysed to estimate the efficacy of the tool. During time, daily visits to the blog remarkably increased, and contents gained a high level of visibility both on Google and Facebook too. Moreover, specific posts registered a peak in visits during some food alerts that occurred during the study, revealing that the blog met readers’ major food safety concerns.

In conclusion, this study represents a best practice example of how risk communication research and practices met to successfully promote food risk prevention at home, responding to both consumers’ needs and online information sources’ agenda, by means of a blog edited by a public health authority and delivering scientifically sound and accurate information to the public.

Keywords: risk communication practice, food risks, online information sources

Target group generation 60+: Communicating risks to an ageing population
Natalie Berger, Severine Koch, Katrin Jungnickel, Gaby-Fleur Böl
German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR), Department of Risk Communication, Berlin, Germany
In the field of consumer health protection, old age is often considered an important risk factor in risk assessment, for instance when considering the health burden of foodborne infections. However, older adults are rarely targeted specifically when risks are communicated and are often subsumed with other vulnerable groups such as infants or women during pregnancy. It is also not clear if older adults feel addressed if references to “old age” or “vulnerable groups” are made as such wording might not match their self-perception. The present study was designed to investigate older adults’ risk perception, beliefs and self-perception in the field of consumer health protection. A total of 109 older adults with a mean age of 70 years participated in 12 focus group discussions that were stratified by age (60 to 74 and 75+ years of age) and gender. Focus groups covered specific topics such as foodborne infections and the use of food supplements as well as older adults’ self-perception and informational needs in the field of consumer health protection. Main results showed that older adults perceived their post-war generation to be more resistant to foodborne infections compared to younger generations, and viewed life experience as an important factor for living a healthy lifestyle. Despite the high prevalence of prescribed medications in their age group, older adults expressed low concern regarding possible interactions between medications and food supplements. Finally, many participants, particularly from the older age group, reported that they felt younger than their biological age, that they did not feel personally vulnerable and that their self-perception did not match societal stereotypes of ageing. These results suggest that age- or cohort-specific aspects play a role in older adults’ risk perception that need to be considered in risk communication. Given that older adults become a growing target group due to demographic change, risk communication has to be more carefully tailored to their needs and self-perception in order to reach a wider audience and to enhance public health.
Keywords: target-group-specific risk communication, vulnerable groups, ageing, qualitative research, focus groups
Tue, 15 Jun -16:15 - 17:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Climate Change 1

Heat Vulnerability and Adaptation of Low-Income Households in Germany
Daniel Osberghaus 1, Thomas Abeling 2
1 ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany
2 UBA – German Environment Agency, Dessau-Roßlau, Germany
In terms of death toll, high ambient temperature is the most devastating natural hazard in developed countries. Climate change will further increase the frequency and severity of heatwaves. It is well known that economically and socially deprived people, such as low-income households, are most vulnerable towards heat. However, it is less clear which component of vulnerability is decisive for the heat vulnerability of economically deprived households – although this is important for the design of policies aiming to increase poor households’ resilience towards heatwaves. Innovatively to the literature, we systematically analyze how the different components of heat vulnerability are related to economic deprivation. We measure individual levels of heat hazard (climatic attributes at the place of residence), exposure (the location in potentially affected places), sensitivity, (socio-economic and biophysical characteristics, including existing adaptation measures), and adaptive capacity (the capacity to implement further adaptation and to recover from an extreme event). Furthermore, we focus on the role of income for the implementation of technical heat adaptation measures at the household level, and estimate the marginal effect of household income on the adaptation probability.

We base our empirical analysis on a large-scale household panel survey conducted in Germany between 2012 and 2020. The final dataset used in this analysis includes 10,226 households and is broadly representative for the total stocks of households in Germany in terms of regional distribution and household size. For assessing the patterns of vulnerability components in relation to economic deprivation, we first define economic deprivation by an at-risk-of-poverty threshold. Then we compare mean values of vulnerability variables of households below the at-risk-of-poverty threshold with values of households above this threshold. For estimating the marginal effect of income on adaptation behavior, we employ a variety of regression analyses, including a conditional logit estimation with fixed effects at the household level, thereby controlling for any observable and unobservable time-invariant household characteristics.

The main results suggest that heat sensitivity and adaptive capacity substantially differ between low and high income households. In contrast, hazard and exposure are no drivers of heat vulnerability differences across the socio-economic groups in Germany. Hence, there is no sorting of richer households to less exposed or hazardous locations in terms of heat. We also contribute robust empirical evidence that the implementation of heat adaptation measures at the household level is constrained by available income even after controlling for a multitude of other explaining factors, including unobserved household heterogeneity.

Keywords: Heat vulnerability; Income; Household level; Distributional aspects; Climate Adaptation

A multi-regional longitudinal study on perceived demands and coping resources related to heat waves
Samuel Domingos 1, Rui Gaspar 2, Wändi Bruine de Bruin 3, João Marôco 1
1 William James Center for Research, ISPA, Lisboa, Portugal, Lisboa, Portugal
2 Católica Research Centre for Psychological, Family and Social Wellbeing (CRC-W), Universidade Católica Portuguesa, Lisboa, Portugal, Lisboa, Portugal
3 Sol Price School of Public Policy and Department of Psychology, University of Southern California, US, Los Angeles, United States
Introduction: We aimed to understand regional and seasonal variations in how Portuguese residents perceive the demands posed by heat waves and the available resources to cope with these, across four survey waves (before, during and after the summer, and during a heat wave in the summer).

Method: A sample of 238 Portuguese residents responded to a web-based longitudinal survey with four waves. They reported perceived demands posed by heat waves, perceived resources to cope with demands, and geographical location as an indicator of regional susceptibility to heat waves (low, medium, high). To this end, we used the heat wave susceptibility map and scale from the Portuguese Civil Protection National Plan.

Results: While perceived resources remained stable across the four survey waves, perceived demands significantly increased during a heat wave as compared to before and after. Participants in low and medium susceptibility regions showed similar responses, across the four survey waves. They systematically perceived having more resources than demands associated with heat waves, suggesting they appraised heat waves as more of a challenge than a threat. However, participants in high susceptibility regions showed a tendency to perceive higher demands than resources during a heat wave, indicating that they appraised heat waves as more of a threat than a challenge.

Conclusion: Our findings may provide climate adaptation practitioners, policy makers, and other professionals with relevant insights for enabling evidence-based action to meet people’s needs to adapt to heat waves. Specifically, participants in high-susceptibility regions of Portugal perceive heat waves as more of a threat and may especially welcome risk communications and interventions.

Keywords: susceptibility level; heat waves; demands and resources perception; adaptation; resilience

Stakeholder knowledge meets modelling expertise: A participative method to develop communication campaigns for protection against heat waves and multi risks
Gisela Wachinger 1, Ahmad Shams 2, Christian Leon 1, Michael Marx 2, Ortwin Renn 3
1 DIALOGIK gemeinnützige Gesellschaft für Kommunikations- und Kooperationsforschung mbH, Stuttgart, Germany
2 evaplan GmbH am Universitätsklinikum Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
3 Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies Potsdam e.V. (IASS), Potsdam, Germany
Natural Hazards are not only increasing in frequency and strength due to climate change, but also their uncertainty and complexity makes risk communication on natural hazards more and more complicated and challenging in different regions of the world. Developing risk communication campaigns is not possible without including the knowledge of stakeholders on the regional and local levels. We developed a method of participatory modelling to identify, interact with and involve local stakeholders in Peru and Georgia on coping with different natural risks. In Tbilisi, national and local authorities currently work together with experts from the EU on a heat wave management plan (EU-funded project SCORCH). The risk communication campaign for the local public and vulnerable groups will be outlined in workshops with all concerned stakeholders (e.g. the weather broadcasting, the fire brigades, the elderly homes and the local practitioners). In another project, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), we develop a participatory modelling process with Stakeholders from Peru. They are involved in risk communication guidelines to deal with multi-hazard modelling in current local planning processes. The following questions are addressed: Which critical infrastructure might be affected by multi-risk events (e.g. earth quake and tsunami, or heavy rain and landslides)? Which are the responsible institutions that have to work together in multi-risk communication? Which communication pathways need to be established? Which kind of advice can be given to the general public to communicate a multi-risk event? We developed a method to address these questions in workshops, where stakeholders interact with modelling experts. The results of these workshops were seen by the participants as substantial contribution to the communication of risks and found them especially helpful in acute hazard situations.
Keywords: natural hazards, heat waves, multirisks, participative modelling
Tue, 15 Jun -16:15 - 17:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Risk Perception 3

Dimitra Angra, Kalliopi Sapountzaki
Harokopio University, Athens, Greece
Global Climate Change (CC) is featured by long-term changes of mean values of climatic parameters (predominantly mean temperatures) and changes in the profile of extreme weather events (e.g. increase of frequency and intensity, prolongation and persistence, etc). These climatic changes have a deteriorating impact on forest fire and flood disasters.

Greece as an East Mediterranean country and due to its unique geographical diversity has a wide variety of micro-climates including hot and dry summers in the eastern part of the country (where any precipitation falls in the form of showers and thunderstorms) and quite wet winters in the western. Combination of certain climatic zones with unfavorable land use and land cover patterns, pressures and conflicts results in several flood and forest fire prone regions. Critical queries concerning these regions are: What has been actually the recent impact of CC on these historically exposed regions? What are predictions for the future? What are lay public and management authorities' perceptions regarding the role of CC in flood and forest fire deteriorating trends?

The authors define flood and forest fire “hot regions” in central and south Greece in order to: (a) outline recent trends in the number of respective disaster events and losses in these regions; (b) address recent and predicted changes in climatic factors and parameter values that are expected to influence flood and forest fire hazards and (c) study the perceptions of lay public and management authorities as to the culpability of CC in relation to increase and intensification of floods and forest fires.

The methodology is based on: 1) time-series statistical analysis of floods and forest fires in the “hot regions”; 2) historical primary/secondary data and predictions for the decisive climatic parameters; 3) the responses to structured questionnaires by lay public samples and key-informers. Cross examination of the results of these analyses will illuminate convergences and divergences between facts, predictions and perceptions.


Public support for research and deployment of enhanced weathering
Elspeth Spence, Nick Pidgeon, Emily Cox
Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom
The urgency around climate change means that new technologies and ideas are being explored and tested globally in order to help tackle the climate crisis. Geoengineering has become more of a reality to some, although the focus appears to be more on carbon dioxide removal strategies such as afforestation, enhanced weathering and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. It is important that societies are asked about what type of measures they would support to deal with climate change, including these novel strategies if they were to be implemented on a large-scale. Providing people with the opportunity to share their initial insights into potential proposals can help inform decisions around research and development of technologies.

Cross-national surveys were conducted to assess how supportive people within the US, UK and Australia (N =3026) would be if enhanced weathering were to be researched and deployed; there are ongoing field trials in the US, Australia, Borneo and now the UK. As this is an unfamiliar strategy, we provided a description of the process along with some potential risks and benefits. An open-ended elicitation technique was used to explore first impressions of the concept, as despite the unfamiliarity of enhanced weathering there may be salient image associations. Respondents were asked about their support for enhanced weathering (a) to tackle climate change, and (b) if their own countries’ resources were used. We found people were supportive of research into enhanced weathering across all three countries however around half neither supported nor opposed the use of enhanced weathering. We asked respondents to provide their rationale for why they would or would not support enhanced weathering as well as conditions for research. Across all open-ended responses it was clear that there was a great deal of uncertainty amongst respondents with main concerns around impacts on the environment. However, people also saw it as a positive approach with more research thought necessary to establish whether enhanced weathering was worthwhile. This open-ended data will help to evaluate how respondents perceive enhanced weathering across countries helping future risk communications to be developed around this strategy as necessary. Ultimately providing people with an opportunity to have an input into ‘upstream’ technologies will become more important as climate change solutions become a global priority and both potential solutions and climate change become likely to have significant impacts on people around the world.


The public perception of energy transition pathways: Affective images from a Norwegian and a German sample
Gisela Böhm 1, 2, Rouven Doran 1, Hans-Rüdiger Pfister 3
1 Department of Psychosocial Science, University of Bergen, 5015 Bergen, Norway, Bergen, Norway
2 Department of Psychology, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, 2624 Lillehammer, Norway, Lillehammer, Norway
3 Institute of Experimental Industrial Psychology (LueneLab), Leuphana University Lüneburg, 21335 Lüneburg, Germany, Lüneburg, Germany
Any attempts to address climate change and to stay within the 1.5°C target of global temperature increase necessarily involve fundamental shifts in the ways energy is used and generated. The public plays an important role in the question of whether the transition to a low-carbon society can be successful. It is therefore important to know what the public thinks about different potential pathways towards energy transition.

We present a study that investigated the public perception of energy transition pathways. While previous research has studied attitudes towards specific energy sources, most notably nuclear power, our study extends this research in two ways. First, we conceive of energy transition pathways as a multifaceted construct that entails many other components at different levels of society besides energy sources. The pathways studied comprise individual behaviors, political strategies, and technologies that aim to foster a shift towards a low-carbon and sustainable society. Second, rather than studying specific attitudes or beliefs, we take an exploratory approach and tap into people’s connotations and subjective meanings by employing affective image analysis (Leiserowitz, 2006), a methodology based on free associations. Further, we compare samples from two countries differing in their socio-political energy contexts and histories, Norway and Germany.

Samples of Norwegian (n = 106) and German (n = 125) university students participated. Each participant generated a free association to each of 25 presented energy transition pathway components. Participants then evaluated their free associations as affectively positive, negative, or neutral. The free associations were coded with respect to their content by two independent coders.

The two samples yielded very similar results. A general evaluation (e.g., valence or importance) is the most frequent type of free association, followed by requirements needed to implement an energy transition pathway component (e.g., national policies) and consequences of the component (e.g., personal or environmental consequences). Whereas individual behaviors (e.g., walking) elicited associations about consequences, requirements, and the behavior’s prevalence, associations to technologies (e.g., carbon, capture, and storage) mainly described some feature of the technology. With a few exceptions (e.g., nuclear power), the presented pathway components elicited positively evaluated associations.

The results suggest that people’s knowledge about energy transition pathways is vague and unspecific, that their processing style is intuitive rather than deliberative, and that they have clear, mainly positive, affective reactions to the topic. The implications for risk communication and public engagement will be discussed.

Keywords: energy transition, climate change, mental representation, affective imaging
Tue, 15 Jun -16:15 - 17:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Human Risks

Risk in Sustainability Science: Adapting risk assessments for a complex future
Emmy Wassénius 1, 2, Beatrice Crona 1, 2
1 Global Economic Dynamics and the Biosphere, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden
2 Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Addressing sustainability challenges often involve aspects of risk analysis and understanding diverse applications of key concepts such as uncertainty and resilience across disciplines. In this paper, we build on previous risk science literature together with a broad transdisciplinary understanding of risk that adds the sustainability science lens. This contribution is novel as it adds the growing field of sustainability science to the risk science discussion. Risk assessments have a long legacy of research and practise, and they remain a key tool for understanding future sustainability risks. However, the single disciplinary and siloed approach that risk has previously been assessed has created challenges to seeing the connectivity of risks and to findings and developments in other risk disciplines. We argue in this piece that these challenges need to be addressed for dealing with sustainability related risks in the intertwined and complex nature of today’s world. Through a synthesis of the diverging risk literature and the related field of uncertainty within social-ecological resilience we highlight five challenges and argue for the need to incorporate and acknowledge these to improve how risk assessments handle sustainability issues today and in the future.
Keywords: risk, resilience, sustainability

Risk and Vulnerability: A Conceptual Analysis
Kritika Maheshwari
PhD Candidate Department of Ethics, Social and Political Philosophy University of Groningen, The Netherlands, Groningen, Netherlands
The concept of vulnerability plays a key role in risk analysis. However, there is no consensus on a precise definition of vulnerability, or on what role the concept is supposed to play. For instance, in discussion of disaster risk analysis, Cutter (1996) documents 18 different definitions of vulnerability. These definitions vary from conceptualizing vulnerability as the degree to which different classes of society are differentially at risk of disaster to conceptualizing vulnerability as the lack of coping mechanisms or adaptive capacities (pp. 531–532).

Given such diversity in how we understand the concept of vulnerability, some scholars have proposed that vulnerability is an essentially contested concept. This raises concerns about the use and the usefulness of the concept of vulnerability, and calls for a clarification of the conceptual relationship between vulnerability and hazards and disasters. The task of analyzing the concept has been undertaken by many bioethicists and philosophers in other contexts, namely, research ethics, public health ethics as well as feminist philosophy literature, however, the concept of vulnerability remains mostly philosophically neglected and unexplored in context of risk analysis.

In my talk, I aim to fill this gap and provide a detailed examination of the different ways in which the notion of vulnerability has been used and understood. Given the large diversity of usages of the term, we require a system that helps clarify the claims made within different vulnerability-based disaster accounts. In so doing, I show that there are at least three distinct ways in which the concept is at work. The first is the concept of vulnerability as an existing state of being of an entity. The second is vulnerability as a capacity or ability of entities to deal with particular conditions of risk. And the third is vulnerability understood simply as a threat to hazards and its potential impact. With these distinctions in hand, I will argue that the notion of vulnerability is poly-semantic, and denotes at least three distinct and compatible concepts that do not compete with each other. Rather than attempting to formulate a single, definite, fully substantive account of vulnerability, as has been the goal of some scholars, we should accept the diversity of vulnerability concepts in risk analysis depending on the context of use. I conclude by noting implications of this diversity of vulnerability concepts for vulnerability assessment tools and risk analysis in general.

Keywords: vulnerability, essentially contested concepts, risk, conceptual analysis

The meaning and motivation of dynamic HRA
Marja Liinasuo, Terhi Kling, Ilkka Karanta
VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd, Espoo, Finland
Conventional human reliability analysis (HRA) relies mostly on static notions. In the recent decade or two, a new paradigm called ‘dynamic HRA’ has entered the field of HRA. It can be stated that former events and situations affect the latter ones also in the context of human cognition and performance. This starting point is rather indisputable. Thus, it is likely that HRA captures human errors and the probabilities of those errors best when applying a dynamic approach. However, in scientific discussion, there is a variety of meaning for dynamic HRA.

In this presentation, we identify the different meanings and approaches based on a review of scientific literature.

Briefly, dynamic HRA often seems to be referred to as a well-known and unambiguous concept but scrutiny shows that different authors present different definitions, reflecting alternative viewpoints. Sometimes dynamic HRA is defined as HRA for scenarios where dynamic phenomena play a significant role and they are taken into account in some way. Sometimes dynamic HRA is considered as HRA where some dynamic method is applied.

We provide our conception of the concept of dynamic HRA, clarifying the difference between the targets of analysis, the qualities considered important in the nature of the target, and the methods with which the target is analysed. We also contemplate the possibilities for the usage of dynamic HRA in the future.

Keywords: dynamic HRA, review
Tue, 15 Jun -17:15 - 18:45
Panel - SRA-E and regional chapters, past, current and future activities
Tue, 15 Jun -20:00 - 21:00
Poster session - Poster night & best poster award

Risk, benefit, and value perceptions toward food application of emerging technologies: Clarifying boundary conditions of deficit model
Naoko Kato-Nitta 1, 2, Yusuke Inagaki 1, 2, Tadahiko Maeda 1, 2, Masashi Tachikawa 3
1 Joint Support-Center for Data Science Research, Tokyo, Japan
2 The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan
3 Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan
Development of gene editing as a new breeding technology that can alter DNA in a faster, easier, and more precise way has seen revolutionary growth. Experts’ interest in utilizing this technique for cultivating agricultural crops has significantly increased. Meanwhile, the slow food movement and people’s growing awareness for food safety are being paralleled with those. Yet, very little is understood about how expert and the lay public perception toward the use of this emerging technology to enhance food production are different. To address this, we conducted quantitative surveys of perceptions of the Japanese participants to gene editing versus other breeding techniques. By empirically investigating such differences in a country with a lower acceptance of GM food, Japan in the case of the present study, should promote clearer understandings of determinants for risk perceptions of gene edited crops.

Two web-based experimental surveys were conducted in 2016 and 2017 in Japan. Participants for Survey 1 were 3,000 public recruited online, while participants for Survey 2 were 197 scientists with and without expertise in molecular biology. We then statistically observed peoples' risk, benefit, and value perceptions by using a single-factor repeated measures ANOVA for the three groups categorized by domain-specific scientific knowledge, regarding food application of conventional breeding, genetic modification, and gene editing.

In the conference, we will present quantitative evidence: how, to what extent, and in what point, the attitudinal differences and similarities are existed among the three groups (molecular biology experts, experts in other fields, and lay public). The results enabled us to elucidate the deficit model's boundary conditions in public communication of science by proposing two new hypotheses: 1) the deficit model explanation types were valid for conventional science and technology (S&T) but not for emerging S&T, and 2) the model’s assumption regarding emerging S&T was valid for increasing benefit perceptions but not for increasing value perceptions or reducing risk perceptions.

Although the study is conducted in Japanese context, our approach should provide a deeper insight into a significant transnational discussion on new generations of genetically engineered food. In addition, we are currently planning to conduct international comparative surveys in February 2020 in Germany and the US by using the same survey materials with the above surveys in Japan; therefore, we will also be able to discuss the issue with international comparative perspective at the conference.

Keywords: Gene editing, Food, health and safety, Risk perception, Public communication of science, Deficit Model

Suvi Joutsen, Kirsi-Maarit Siekkinen, Antti Mikkelä, Johanna Suomi, Pirkko Tuominen
Finnish Food Authority, Risk Assessment Unit, Helsinki, Finland
Risk communication is one of three key components of food safety risk analysis. Reciprocal communication is needed in the process where scientific evidence is required for decision making. The necessity of communication between risk assessment and risk management has been recognized, and to underline its importance Codex Alimentarius Commission changed the picture of three intersecting circles (risk assessment, risk management and risk communication) to a communication ring with risk assessment and risk management in it. According to several studies, risk analysis has suffered from communication weaknesses.

The aim of the research was to identify the main difficulties of communication during the risk analysis process and to find suggestions for improvement. Risk managers and risk assessors were interviewed in Finland, Sweden, Germany and the Netherlands (32 persons). The interviews consisted of multiple choice, slider rating scale, Likert scale, and open-ended questions (53 questions). Background of the interviewee, starting the process, defining of the risk question, communication during the risk assessment, and delivery of the results to the risk manager were covered.

The average responses of both risk assessors and risk managers were mostly similar although a remarkable variation within groups was observed in several answers. Setting the risk assessment question was found as the basic reason for risk assessment not always reaching its goal. Numerical questions were analyzed statistically, but the results of groups differed statistically for only a few questions. Risk assessors stated more often than the risk managers that the methods and uncertainties were communicated to the requestor. The respondents with less than a 15 year-experience in risk assessment or risk management, answered more often about established communication between risk assessors and risk managers than them with at least 15 years of experience.

The main recommendations to improve risk communication according this study were: risk assessment policy should incorporate the risk communication, considering the roles of risk assessors and managers while guaranteeing their independence; the mandate given by risk managers to risk assessors should be clear and in written form; open and transparent dialogue crucial to good communication should take place along the process enhancing understandability and usability of risk assessment; uncertainty and its causes should be properly described for risk management to maximize the effectiveness of communication; and building and maintaining trust as an essential element for effective risk communication is a mutual responsibility.

The research is part of the COMRISK project funded by EFSA Partnering Grant: GP/EFSA/AFSCO/2017/01-GA05.

Keywords: risk communication, risk assessment, risk management, risk analysis

Communication of risk and uncertainty in organizations: the "communication-uncertainty" model in qualitative research, a case study.
Jean-Michel Camin
Université Bordeaux Montaigne., Bordeaux, France
In a previous study (Camin, 2014), based on the actor-network theory (Callon, 1986; Callon and Latour, 1981; Latour, 1984), we were able to demonstrate that uncertainty, in the field of information and communication sciences, is a non-human actor (actant) of the network with which we interact. The communication process used during the construction of this network differs according to the nature of the uncertainty encountered or felt, we have distinguished in the constructivist model of "communication-uncertainty" a typology distinguishing three axes: the uncertainty of variability (inherent to the variability of things), the ambiguous or unambiguous epistemic uncertainty (due to the imperfection of our knowledge) and the uncertainty of scale (in relation to the imperfection of our models of representations).

What are the benefits of such a model in the field of qualitative research? How to implement it in studies relating to organizations?

From a corpus of interviews with users of new technologies on the theme of the smart house, we will carry out two thematic analyzes of this corpus; one on the entire corpus and the other using codebook filtering (an analysis grid) based on our typology. We will carry out two statistical classifications of the results which we will be able to compare and interpret a posteriori.

The constructivist model of "communication-uncertainty" effectively participates in the construction of a "relevant context" for the actor and in "the selection of the significant elements of the situation" because "man is always putting in context to understand the meaning of things that appear to it” (Mucchielli, 2005).

Keywords: constructivist model; qualitative research;

Screening potential pests of Nordic coniferous forests associated with trade of ornamental plants
Mariela Marinova-Todorova 1, Niklas Björklund 2, Johanna Boberg 2, Daniel Flø 3, Juha Tuomola 1, Micael Wendell 3, Salla Hannunen 1
1 Finnish Food Authority, Risk Assessment Research Unit, Helsinki, Finland
2 Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Risk Assessment of Plant Pests, Uppsala, Sweden
3 The Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment (VKM), Oslo, Norway
Invasive pests have caused extensive ecological and economic impacts worldwide and they are introduced into new areas especially via the trade of living plants. In a recently published study we screened plant pests potentially associated with the trade of ornamental plants to identify pests that could pose a high risk to the coniferous forests of Finland, Sweden and Norway. Specifically, our aim was to find pests that potentially could fulfil the criteria to become regulated as quarantine pests.

We used an approach developed by the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization (EPPO) for commodity studies, which includes several steps of screening, to identify the pests that are most likely to become significant pests of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Norway spruce (Picea abies). From an initial list of 1062 pests, 65 pests were identified and ranked using the FinnPRIO pest risk ranking model and the hypervolume approach, which resulted in a top list of 14 pests namely Chionaspis pinifoliae, Coleosporium asterum s.l., Cytospora kunzei, Dactylonectria macrodidyma, Gnathotrichus retusus, Heterobasidion irregulare, Lambdina fiscellaria, Orgyia leucostigma, Orthotomicus erosus, Pseudocoremia suavis, Tetropium gracilicorne, Toumeyella parvicornis, Truncatella hartigii and Xylosandrus germanus.

We are currently, jointly with EPPO, conducting full pest risk assessments according to the International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures (ISPMs) for two of the pests in the top list, namely white-marked tussock moth (Orgyia leucostigma) and pine needle scale (Chionaspis pinifoliae). The results of these assessments will provide support for decisions within the EPPO-region on whether the assessed pests should be regulated as quarantine pests.

Keywords: Pest risk assessment, prioritization, risk management, risk ranking

Dietary exposure of Finnish children and adults to inorganic arsenic
Johanna Suomi 1, Liisa Valsta 2, Sari Niinistö 2, Suvi Virtanen 2, Pirkko Tuominen 1
1 Risk Assessment Unit Finnish Food Authority, Helsinki, Finland
2 Public Health Promotion Unit Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare THL, Helsinki, Finland
Inorganic arsenic is an environmental carcinogen. It enters the food chain through plants taking up the heavy metal from the soil as well as through water. International expert organizations have determined that there is no safe threshold value for inorganic arsenic exposure (EFSA, 2009), and therefore, the margin of exposure to a benchmark dose is used to estimate the risk to consumers. Benchmark doses for cancer risk increase with dietary exposure to inorganic arsenic have been determined by the European Food Safety Authority EFSA (EFSA 2009) and the FAO/WHO expert group (JECFA 2011).

The dietary exposure to inorganic arsenic in Finland was determined probabilistically using governmental data on arsenic occurrence in foodstuffs and nationally collected food consumption data from studies DIPP and FINDIET 2012. Most of the occurrence data were available as total arsenic, and the inorganic arsenic content was calculated from total arsenic using fixed percentages for the portion of inorganic arsenic in water, fish and seafood, and all of the other foodstuffs. The food consumption data were available at ingredient level for each individual. They had been calculated from 3-day food diaries collected in the DIPP study and 48-h recall interviews collected in the FINDIET 2012 survey. The online program MCRA was used to assess the dietary exposure probabilistically from the dataset on concentrations in foodstuffs and the datasets on individual food consumption data.

The margin of exposure for Finnish children and adults in the age groups 1 to 6 years and 25 to 74 years is presented. The margin of exposure was lowest for 1-year-old girls, for whom it was slightly above 9, and highest for 65–74-year-old men, for whom it was nearly 33. These values show low to moderate risk. The sources of dietary exposure to inorganic arsenic in the different age groups are also presented. Due to the higher inorganic arsenic levels in rice, compared with other grains, the relative importance of rice products as a dietary source of arsenic is higher than their consumption would suggest.

Keywords: dietary exposure, inorganic arsenic, risk assessment

Sanja Mrksic Kovacevic 1, Frederic Bouder 1, Katherine Payne 2, Caroline Vass 2
1 University of Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway
2 University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom
Precision medicine promises significant improvements in the medical field. One of the key tools used in reaching the goal of “precision” are different types of algorithms. They are being used for both prognostic and treatment purposes. However, along with the technological progress and introduction of artificial intelligence, algorithms are about to become far more complex than ever before. This certainly affects the increase in ambiguity when addressing them. Therefore, intending to investigate risks and uncertainties beyond the use of algorithms in precision medicine, we conducted 30 in-depth, semi-structured interviews. The main objective was to unravel the current state and prospects of their potential every-day use. We interviewed experts from Scandinavia, United Kingdom, Germany, Netherlands and the USA seeking the response in understanding their definition, development, evaluation, regulation and future challenges. Despite notable optimism particularly on the developers’ side, technology advancements seek for both conceptual clarifications and risk communication redefinition. Nevertheless, algorithms hold great potential, but as our results implicate, it is still early in the pipeline to address them as the key genetic risk communication tools.
Keywords: genetic risk, precision medicine, genetic algorithm, genetic risk communication

The public acceptance of fusion energy research in Europe: A cross-national survey study
Christian Oltra 1, Chris Jones 2, ANA PRADES 1
1 CISOT - CIEMAT, Barcelona, Spain
2 Surrey University, Surrey, United Kingdom
There is growing appreciation, among policy makers and industry alike, that understanding and fostering ‘public acceptance’ is a central to the commercial deployment of low carbon energy technologies and associated infrastructure in Europe. While currently an experimental technology, fusion energy has the potential to be such low carbon energy option. The ongoing research, demonstration and deployment of commercial fusion energy will involve significant public investment from the member states of fusion development programmes and will imply large-scale infrastructure, the socio-technical embedment of which will be influenced by the public and stakeholders.

How familiar are the European citizens with fusion energy? How do the general public in Europe perceive the potential benefits and costs of fusion? Do they accept and support further fusion developments in their country and the European Union?

Here we present the findings of an online survey, conducted on nationally representative samples (N = 900 per nation) from 21 European countries as part of the EUROFusion-SES (Socio-economic Studies on Fusion) project. We focus our analysis on cross-country and other group differences in self-reported measures of perceived benefits and costs, positive and negative affect, attitudes, acceptance and support of fusion energy research. Second, using a multivariate, socio-psychological approach, we examine the individual-level determinants of people’s acceptance of fusion energy.

We consider the implications of the findings for the social acceptance of fusion energy in different countries, including implications for programmes of pubic engagement and communication. Future research will provide the evidence needed to examine the trends of public acceptance of fusion energy and attempt to document and explain some of the findings of this research.

Keywords: fusion energy, public acceptance, cross-cultural research

Iwona Gorzeń-Mitka
Czestochowa University of Technology, Faculty of Management, Czestochowa, Poland
Risk management is a process that is a complex challenge, especially for SME enterprises. Risk assessment is a key issue for the success of this process. Effective risk management requires, among other things, the selection and application of appropriate risk assessment methods and techniques.

The difficulty in matching appropriate risk assessment tools and techniques is one of the key barriers to the practice of risk management in SMEs. Some of the methods and techniques are widely used and typical, while others are used occasionally. We examine what risk assessment techniques are preferred by Polish SMEs. We build rankings of methods and techniques used in risk assessment by SMEs - one general ranking and 6 specific rankings ones based on 6 characteristics based on ISO 31010: 2019.

In order to develop the rankings, the MULTIMOORA method was used as suitable for the analysis of problems in which there are several alternatives (in our case 31 different techniques) and several objectives (in our case 6 factors that describe the preferences in the choice of technique). The survey shows that Polish SMEs manage risk at a very basic level and prefer simple, especially qualitative, risk assessment techniques.

Keywords: risk assessment technique, SMEs, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)

Risk Justice and the People, Nature, Place and Time: A theoretical framework for fairness considerations in sustainable risk management
Mathilde de Goër de Herve
Risk and Environmental Studies, Karlstad University, Karlstad, Sweden
Centre for Societal Risk Research, Karlstad University, Karlstad, Sweden
Research School of the Centre for Research on Sustainable Societal Transformation, Karlstad University, Karlstad, Sweden
Risks are unevenly distributed in society and historically, justice and equity have been key factors for successful risk management in local communities. There are several reasons for considering justice (fairness, equity) in societal risk management. The uncertainties surrounding risks and risk management outcomes and the unevenness of their impacts on different people, places, and over time, call for fairness in the strategy choices. Risk management is an essential part of sustainable transformation, which requires equity for both people and nature in all spatial and temporal scales. The growing literature on environmental, climate and disaster justice illustrates the importance of these issues in relation to risks, however, these frameworks encounter difficulties when applied to risk studies. They merely focus on some restricted types of risks and it is complicated to include the two stages concerned by risk management: the risk itself with its impacts, as well as the management strategies with their consequences.

To scope the topic and identify the gaps, a literature review of justice considerations in flood risk management was conducted. It revealed various ideas of justice and a general call for more research. Therefore, the aim is to produce a framework that helps decision-makers to do more equitable and sustainable choices as well as communicate about such decisions, and evaluators to reflect upon several fairness dimensions of the strategies. The studied literature distinguishes between distributive and procedural justices, aspects that influence each other. Distributive justice is related to who is directly and indirectly impacted by the burdens and the benefits of the strategy, while procedural justice is related to who decides and whose voices and knowledge are considered.

I argue that these two concerns should be analyzed within four dimensions: social, ecological, spatial and temporal. Social justice is about the fairness between different groups of people sharing social characteristics. Ecological justice is about the fairness between human and non-human entities. Spatial justice is about the fairness between entities present in different geographical areas. Temporal justice is about the fairness between current and future living entities. The literature review contains case studies focusing almost exclusively on social aspects and, sometimes, on spatial ones if the risk is place-dependent. Less attention is paid to ecological and temporal issues. The four dimensions are interrelated and can overlap, but sustainability requires reflections upon each of them.

The resulting framework for risk justice is in the process of theorization, presented here for discussion.

Keywords: Risk management, Risk justice, Sustainable strategies, Theoretical framework

Vulnerability of population in performing work tasks in the pandemic crisis COVID 19 (case study Serbia)
Slavica Dabižljevic 1, Nada Tatalović 1, Marija Jevtić 1, 2, 3, Mirjana Laban 1
1 Faculty of Technical Sciences Novi Sad University, Novi Sad, Serbia
2 Faculty of Medicine Novi Sad University, Novi Sad, Serbia
3 Institute of public health of Vojvodina, Novi Sad, Serbia
Covid pandemic crisis has changed life circumstances, and among other things, has shown the weaknesses of companies, systems and communities.The healthcare systems have been demonstrated as extremely vulnerable. The education systems are trying to adjust to the situation. The organization’s work process has been greatly compromised. The aim of this paper is to indicate vulnerability of the population to perform their work tasks in the pandemic crisis.

This research has been conducted through PhDstudies at the Faculty of Technical Sciences UNS, Disaster and fire risk management Department (subject: Public health in the emergency and crisis). The idea was, among other things, to show how this current pandemic, and in what way, disrupts the work' (and overall life) population activities. The methodology is adapted according to the situation (based on voluntary participation), on an anonymous questionnaire and appropriate statistical processing. The request to fill-in the questionnaire was sent through certain communication channels: e-mail, viber, whatsapp, facebook etc.

The State of emergency (15.03 – 06.05.2020.), implied the curfew and restriction of freedom movement in order to reduce public health risk. Overall protection measures, made it difficult to carry out work tasks, both at the individual and organizational level, and required significant adjustment to the situation. During that period, more than 20 decisions, decrees and amendments to the Law were made, which required a rapid reaction and adjustment of the labour process.

The survey included 765 examinees (80% employees), and research results were: living in the countryside have proven to be more resilient regarding work engagement, as opposed to those living in the cities. Around 30% of respondents have shifted to remote work, which solved many problems in organizations, while at the same time creating new issues regarding defining work engagement and also has had a great impact on family life. Less than 10% of the respondents have lost their jobs (which doesn’t reflect the actual situation, but confirms those respondents who did not lose their jobs).

This global crisis is affecting everyone, from the individual, small businesses to large corporations. Vulnerability of the labor reflects on the vulnerability of an individual and vice versa. It is very important to find more efficient methods to strengthen the resilience of different jobs, in order to prepare properly for work under potential future emergencies, and look for the opportunity to define some new possibilities for future labor in the light of the “new normal”.

Keywords: COVID 19, vulnerability , resilience, public health
Wed, 16 Jun -09:45 - 10:00
- Announcing Best Paper Award Winners
Wed, 16 Jun -10:00 - 10:35
Keynote - Insurance as an Equitable Response to Loss and Damage from Climate Change?
Wed, 16 Jun -10:35 - 11:10
Keynote - Structured Expert Judgement for Uncertainty – Context and Methodology
Wed, 16 Jun -11:15 - 12:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Environmental Risks 2

Evaluating the effect of flood insurance subsidies with an agent-based model
Valerie Washington 1, Seth Guikema 1, Joi Mondisa 1, Gina Tonn 2
1 University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
2 Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control, Dover, DE, United States
The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which supplies the majority of flood insurance policies in the United States, plans to move to risk-based rates to ensure the financial stability of the program. This move to risk-based rates will cause premiums to rise for some homeowners. Under the current structure of the program, homeowners are eligible for subsidized rates if their home was constructed before NFIP flood insurance rate maps were created for their community; however, these subsidies would be phased out in the move to risk-based rates. This loss of subsidies combined with the rate increases may increase the financial burden of flood insurance for households. In our study, we look at the effect that income-based subsidies have on communities facing flood hazards. We use an agent-based model to evaluate the effect that subsidized and unsubsidized flood insurance premiums have on communities in high-risk flood areas and the flood mitigation strategies employed. We apply this model to the community of Fargo, North Dakota, USA, which is bordered by the Red River and experiences seasonal floods. We compare the effects of insurance subsidies on mitigation decisions, damages incurred, move out rates, and the number of active flood insurance policies held. Damages and mitigation decisions are evaluated from the perspective of both individual homeowners and the community at large. These results may help us to evaluate the value of flood insurance and insurance subsidies for communities.
Keywords: flood insurance, subsidies, flood mitigation

Investigating extrapolation methods and uncertainty related to coastal flood risk estimates in Finland
Ulpu Leijala, Milla M. Johansson, Havu Pellikka
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Coastal areas around the world are heavily populated and hold critical infrastructure. The rate of global mean sea level rise is currently over twice as much than it was on average over the 20th century (IPCC, 2019). Higher mean sea level will intensify extreme sea level events (storm surges, tides, waves), and lead to habitat contraction, migration, and loss of functionality and biodiversity. Thus, tools for estimating flood risks and related uncertainties are needed for safe and flexible coastal planning. Despite of the post-glacial land uplift in Finland, the flood risks are expected to increase during the 21st century everywhere on the Finnish coast except in the Bay of Bothnia (Pellikka et al., 2018).

Three different components govern the sea level variations on the Finnish coast: 1) short-term sea level variations (storm surges, internal oscillations in the Baltic Sea, and tides), 2) long-term mean sea level change (global mean sea level rise, land uplift and the Baltic Sea water balance), and 3) wind waves. In this study, we focus on the uncertainties connected to the probability estimates of the first component and utilise over 90 years of local tide gauge observations on the Finnish coast.

We demonstrate here how different extrapolation methods affect the probability estimates of the short-term sea level variability. We also present studies on stationarity by looking particularly how the higher-end of the sea level distributions has evolved in time. In addition, we determine characteristic statistical parameters of the sea level distributions for selected time periods. As an outcome of the studies we determine the ranges, where rare sea levels corresponding to certain exceedance frequencies fall.

The tentative results of this study are part of a project PREDICT (Predicting extreme weather and sea level for nuclear power plant safety) that supports nuclear power plant safety in Finland by developing research expertise and methods needed for assessing probabilities of occurrence of safety-relevant single and compound extreme weather and marine events.


IPCC, 2019: Summary for Policymakers. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N. Weyer (eds.)]. In press.

Pellikka, H.; Leijala, U.; Johansson, M. M.; Leinonen, K.; Kahma, K. K., 2018: Future probabilities of coastal floods in Finland. Continental Shelf Research, 157, 32–42.

Keywords: sea level rise, coastal flooding, uncertainties, Baltic Sea

Oil spill risk assessment in the Arctic: Coping with limited data, high uncertainties and arctic vastness
Inari Helle 1, 2, Jussi Mäkinen 1, Maisa Nevalainen 1, Mawuli Afenyo 3, Jarno Vanhatalo 1, 4
1 Research Center for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
2 Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
3 Transport Institute, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada
4 Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
Accidental oil spills resulting from maritime activities threaten marine and costal ecosystems around the globe. The situation is extremely challenging in the Arctic, where retreating sea ice opens new opportunities for shipping and oil and gas exploration, but the possibilities to mitigate potential environmental damages are limited. To proactively manage the risks such operations pose to the sensitive Arctic environment, we need methods that enable oil spill risk assessment in a quantitative and spatiotemporally explicit manner. The methods also need to cope with limited data and high uncertainties typical for the Arctic. At present, however, risk assessment methods capable of conjoining all these aspects are scarce. To meet this demand, we developed a novel probabilistic method for conducting oil spill risk assessment in Arctic marine areas. The method employs probabilistic methods and open access data to hierarchically estimate the proportion of the population of a given species that will die due to oiling. It combines information on three components: 1) spatiotemporally varying species’ densities (estimated with probabilistic species distribution models); 2) spreading of oil in varying ice conditions (estimated with Fay-type equations); and 3) species-specific exposure potentials and sensitivities to oil (elicited from experts and literature). We used the Kara Sea as a case study, and conducted a risk assessment using the populations of three arctic marine mammal species (polar bear, ringed seal and walrus) as assessment endpoints. We included five navigation routes, three seasons, and four oil types in the analysis. The results show that the risk varies between species, shipping routes, seasons, and oil types. Furthermore, associated uncertainties are high. The method provides quantitative risk estimates while expressing uncertainty explicitly, and it can be used to compare risk levels over large areas such as shipping routes. We believe that these features makes the method useful for decision-support related to oil spill risk management and e.g. to marine spatial planning. In the next step, the analysis will be supplemented with spatiotemporally varying shipping accident probabilities.
Keywords: oil spill, uncertainty, arctic marine mammals, ecological risk assessment
Wed, 16 Jun -11:15 - 12:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Integration of Qualitative and Quantitative Methods

Method for Human Security based Prospective Rapid Impact Assessment (PRIA) based on Human Security and Social Acceptance
Tuomo Eskelinen 1, Miika Kajanus 1, Jyri Wuorisalo 1, Ardita Hoxha-Jahja 4, Carmen Nastase 2, Carmen Chasovschi 2, Ulla Santti 4, Heli Laapotti 3
1 Savonia UAS, Kuopio, Finland
2 Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava, Suceava, Romania
3 Kuopio University Hospital, Kuopio, Finland
4 Savonia University of Applied Sciences, Kuopio, Finland
In this paper, we present a new method for Prospective Rapid Impact Assessment (PRIA) based on Human Security Approach (HAS) and social acceptance. There is a societal need for future-oriented impact assessment approaches which support decision-making in the growing complexity of socio-technical environments. Widespread challenges are prevention of, preparedness and mitigation to climate related risks, survival, livelihood, and dignity and human rights of people. The society needs to strengthen local capacities to build resilience, and promote new solutions that enhance social cohesion. The implementation of Agenda 2030 sustainable development goals requires the approval by people and communities - social acceptance is increasingly a factor, which may constrain the expansion of implementation of new technologies, thus empowering the speed up of implementation of necessary changes and actions. The PRIA method combines the Human security approach with rapid impact assessment and portfolio decision analysis. Evaluation ensures that individuals and teams think carefully about the likely impact of their work on people and take actions to improve strategies. Moreover, it assesses the external environment and the changing nature of risks rather than the typical focus on the output-input equation used in programme management. Evaluation includes the following phases, namely gathering the information and evidence by defined target groups, defining the outcomes (positive and negative) of the interventions, reflection on the costs and benefits at the aggregate level and, finally, recommendations for improvements, by identifying the different insights of groups, by indicating the issues of joint agreement as basement for further solutions. Testing and analysis of PRIA at 5 cases provided valuable feedback for further work. We conclude, that the PRIA method is a useful method and tool for preliminary impact-based decision-action scenario development.
Keywords: Prospective Rapid Impact Assessment, Portfolio decision analysis, climate change, society, risks, challenges.

Probabilistic Cross-Impact Analysis for Risk Assessment
Ahti Salo 1, Edoardo Tosoni 1, Juho Roponen 1, Derek Bunn 2
1 Systems Analysis Laboratory Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
2 Management Science and Operations London Business School, London, United Kingdom
In scenario analysis, many variants of cross-impact methods are employed to inform management and policy decisions by structuring pertinent uncertainty factors; identifying possible realizations thereof; and constructing scenarios around those combinations of realizations that represent particularly pertinent futures. In this talk, we show that the use of non-probabilistic cross-impact methods can be problematic in the risk assessment of safety-critical systems. In effect, risk estimates about such systems are typically required to be conservative so that the actual level of risk is not underestimated. This requirement is justified by the recognition that the consequences associated with `false negatives'–the failure to take appropriate risk management decisions in response to risks which were thought to be tolerable but were actually too high--can be far greater than those associated with `false positives'–the cost of unnecessarily implementing risk management actions in response to excessively high estimates about risks which, in reality, would not have warranted such actions.

Specifically, we show that as the number of alternative scenarios can be very large, focusing on a relatively small set of `most consistent’ of `most probable’ scenarios may suggest risk estimates which are not conservative, because the risks associated with the other scenarios are not explicitly accounted for. Furthermore, we point out pitfalls in synthesising cross-impact statements for the selection of consistent scenarios in the cross-impact balances (CIB) method, because there are combinations of cross-impact statements such that none of the scenarios will be deemed consistent, although one of them will surely occur.

Then, by building on probabilistic theories of causation, we develop an approach to probabilistic cross-impact analysis which (i) admits many kinds of elicitation statements (including cross-impact statements), (ii) maps these statements into constraints on the underlying joint probability distribution, (iii) provides support for preserving the consistency of elicited statements and (ii) provides lower and upper bounds on the overall risk level. This approach–which is illustrated with an example from the domain of nuclear waste management–is useful in that it retains the relative ease of eliciting semi-qualitative statements while ensuring that the statements are interpreted within a coherent probabilistic framework. Apart from its solid anchoring in probability theory, a major benefit of this approach is that it is fully compatible with and can hence be integrated with other techniques of probabilistic analysis, including statistical analyses and expert judgement methods for the characterisation of uncertainties.

Keywords: Cross-impact analysis, scenario analysis, risk management, safety-critical systems, nuclear waste repositories

Decision-making at the onset of a crisis
Erna Danielsson
Mid Sweden University Risk and Crisis Research Centre, Östersund, Sweden
This study focuses on the decision-making that takes place at the onset of a crisis, and investigates how decision-makers and crisis managers make sense of a situation that is about to develop into a crisis. The study was conducted in a laboratory and was designed as an exercise. The task during the exercise was to create a common operating picture during a collaboration conference and decide on the need to act as a consequence of inclement weather. Nine people participated from seven organizations: The Police, Rescue Service, County Administrative Board, a municipality, and two Water Regulator companies. The laboratory scenario mimicked a real-life situation. During the experiment, 16 different information messages were spread via various channels, some of which required decision-making and others were "noise". Lessons learned from the preparation phase was the importance to engage participants from appropriate levels and the importance of involving experts in preparing and creating scenarios. Reflections from the participants included that they felt generally that they request resources for preventative purposes too late and that they asked too little about things they did not know. They also felt they should have been more attentive to what was happening and more curious. They also thought that they should have given more information and been more specific in their information. A positive outcome was the knowledge transfer that took place during the exercise resulting from listening to how others reasoned in the unknown situation. The study also had limitations. Our selection of participants was not optimal. This exercise was not aimed at operative personnel working in acute situations, it was about long-term consequences. The selection of participants must be more closely linked to the issues that will be discussed during the meeting. Other lessons learned included the importance to preparing a structure for sharing qualified information. Overall, participants thought that the experiment was a useful method for this kind of study. However, it is difficult to describe the road leading up to a crisis, as we do not yet know exactly what that road looks like. This requires more tests of method, scenarios and the experimental situation itself. The study contributes to the development of experimental methods studying the decision-making processes, leading to early warnings and rapid response.
Keywords: Laboratory study, Decision-making, Uncertainty
Wed, 16 Jun -11:15 - 12:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Social Media

Are the Negative Effects of Social Networking a Privilege of the Rich? Social Network Usage and Life Satisfaction Across Europe
Daragh O'Leary 1, Alida Volkmer 2
1 Department of Economics, Cork University Business School, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland, Cork, Ireland
2 Chair of Marketing & Consumer Behavior, Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen, Germany, Friedrichshafen, Germany
The establishment of social network use (SNU) in society enables people to enhance their social connections and increase their sense of satisfaction or well-being; however, SNU is not without psychological risks: Excessive levels of SNU can prove problematic and increase feelings of anxiety and loneliness. While this antithetical nature of SNU is well-recognized within the current stock of literature, it is less clear whether this pattern of the diminishing marginal benefit of SNU changes across nations. National context is a probable moderator for the relationship between SNU and life satisfaction since it partly determines access to social capital and – by extension – how much benefit SNU may provide to users.

This study fills this knowledge gap by using an ordered probit model to estimate the relationship between SNU and individual life satisfaction across 27 different European countries using the 2016 Eurobarometer 86.2 survey from the European Commission (N=15,039). An interaction variable between SNU and country is created and included in this paper’s estimation to show how SNU affects life satisfaction differently across countries.

Findings indicate that there are considerable variations across countries regarding the effect which SNU has on life satisfaction. Overall results show that frequent SNU negatively impacts individual life satisfaction, while moderate SNU positively impacts life satisfaction. However, the negative effect associated with frequent SNU is strongest amongst individuals from countries with higher performing economies while individuals from countries with lower performing economies prove more resilient to the negative effects of SNU. This indicates that the individuals who? live in countries with higher performing economies are the ones most at risk to the negative effects of excessive SNU, meanwhile individuals from countries with lower performing economies are the least at risk to the negative effects of excessive SNU and most susceptible to the beneficial effects of moderate levels of SNU.

We propose that this effect is due to the poorer endowment of social capital in countries with lower performing economies relative to countries with higher performing economies. This lesser level of social capital means that the beneficial effect which SNU provides to social capital, and in turn life satisfaction, is greater in countries with lower performing economies than it is in countries with higher performing economies. This paper provides an important contribution to literature concerning SNU and life satisfaction by examining and reporting disparities between the effect of SNU on life satisfaction across different countries.

Keywords: Life Satisfaction, Social Network use, Social Media Use, User Well-Being

What is Beautiful is Trustworthy: The Deceptive Role of Attractiveness in Influencer Marketing
Sara Alida Volkmer, Martin Meißner
Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen, Germany
Social media platforms have become an integral part of everyday life leading to impactful changes in society: Users can benefit from building and maintaining social relationships with others online. Individuals who grow exceptionally large networks can establish themselves as professional influencers. They provide entertainment and information to other users; however, not without risks for their followers. Since social media platforms such as Instagram are built around images and videos, visual cues can have strong effects on follower behavior. For example, social media users may see an attractive influencer and mistake her as a credible source of information using attractiveness as a cue for expertise – an effect that could be especially prevalent in the health influencer context due to its focus on looking fit and healthy, changing the “what is beautiful is good”-bias to “what is beautiful is trustworthy”. Naturally, this bias can have negative consequences for consumers: They may purchase products promoted by attractive but non-expert influencers and risk wasting money or even potentially damaging their health.

The present study investigates consumer risk resulting from social media users’ tendency to use attractiveness as a cue for expertise. We utilize an experimental design that tests the effects of attractiveness (low versus high) and expertise (low versus high versus pretended high) of an Instagram influencer selling a dietary supplement on source credibility. Downstream consequences on consumer behavior (electronic Word-of-Mouth intentions, purchase intentions, and product attractiveness) are also examined. We predict that high influencer attractiveness as well as pretended and high expertise increase the influencer’s perceived credibility. As will be further discussed, the use of attractiveness as an expertise cue, however, implies substantial physical, psychological, and financial risks for social media users.

This study contributes to a better understanding of risk dimensions related to social media endorser’s credibility in a health context. In particular, we address the risk of consumers following questionable advice from influencers due to the “what is beautiful is trustworthy”-bias. We argue that consumers should be informed about the risk of conflating attractiveness with expertise which may be especially prevalent on aesthetics-focused social media platforms. Additionally, we test the risk that consumers mistake influencers who use non-protected terms that suggest an expert-status (e.g., nutritionist) as true experts (e.g., dietitian). Finally, to address such risks, existing social media policies should be expanded and force social media platforms to add a certification system for health influencers.

Keywords: social media, influencer credibility, influencer marketing, consumer risk

A Structural Topic Model Analysis of Discourses about Climate Change on the Internet
Hans-Rüdiger Pfister 1, Gisela Böhm 2, 3
1 Institute of Experimental Industrial Psychology, Leuphana University, Lüneburg, Germany
2 Department of Psychosocial Science, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
3 Department of Psychology, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Lillehammer, Norway
Although the reality of climate change as well as its anthropogenic causation is generally accepted among scientists, it is the subject of public controversy. We examine the social discourse about climate change as it manifests in the online world (social media, online magazines, etc.). Based on a sample of contributions drawn from the WWW, a corpus of 2.000 textual units was constructed and analyzed by means of structural topic modeling, a variant of automated computational text analysis. Structural topic modeling aims to find thematic topics based on co-occurring words within a corpus of text documents, and aims to detect relationships between topics and characteristics of the documents (Roberts, Stewart, & Tingley, 2019). Specifically, we examined the relationship between topics and type of media channel. On a general level, three topics were identified: (1) Social Activism: Discourse about social movements and actions, predominantly those aiming at tackling climate change; (2) Climate Change Policies: Discourse about policies and technologies that might be effective in reducing or mitigating climate change; (3) Science of Climate Change: Discourse about confirming and disconfirming scientific evidence concerning (human) causation and consequences of climate change. A noticeable difference was found concerning the prevalence of these topics in different media. Social Activism is the dominant topic discussed on blogs, and to a lesser degree in contributions from journalists in online magazines; discourse about Climate Change Policies, such as taxes or more efficient technological appliances, is prevalent in articles from journalists and other contributions in online newspapers and magazines; discourse about the scientific underpinnings of climate change and the issue of human causation (pro and contra) is prevalent on twitter, in reader comments to contributions from others, and in popular science articles. Results are discussed with respect to social amplification and to processes of polarization through filter bubbles; conclusions are drawn with respect to science communication on the Internet.

Keywords: climate change, social media, topic model
Wed, 16 Jun -11:15 - 12:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Critical Infrastructure

Risks of nuclear facility decommissioning
Ilkka Karanta
VTT, Espoo, Finland
As the nuclear fleet of the world ages, many NPP units have already been taken out of use, and other nuclear facilities such as research reactors are being decommissioned, the volume and importance of nuclear facility decommissioning will increase in the coming decades. Commercial interest on the topic is increasing. Decommissioning is a complex whole, and thus related risk analysis and risk management are challenging. As there is relatively little experience in decommissioning, risk-related issues need clarification, and appropriate analysis methods need to be chosen or developed.

This presentation describes work being carried out in dECOmm project, a Finnish project to create capabilities and a business ecosystem for the decommissioning of nuclear facilities (NFD). The presentation focuses on risk analyses and risk management related to NFD. Hazards and risks related to NFD processes and projects are described. The main emphasis is on safety risks, as these are of societal interest and play a role in the licensing of the decommissioning by government. Applicable risk analysis methods are described, and their benefits and drawbacks are assessed. The role of risk analyses as a part of decommissioning licensing is outlined.


Analysis of cascading effects of CI service failure post torrential floods
Deepshikha Purwar, Johannes Flacke, Richard Sliuzas
Department of Urban Planning and Management, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, PO Box 217, 7500 AE, Enschede, Netherlands
Critical infrastructure (CI) services, by definition, are crucial to the functioning of modern communities. A single failure in a critical infrastructure system can have cascading effects and affect an entire network of services and, thereby, even an entire city. Challenges such as climate change and rapid urbanisation are increasing the world’s susceptibility to disasters, which has raised the potential of physical damages, socio-economic losses and longer recovery periods worsened by cascading effects of CI service failure. Traditional disaster management is inadequately equipped to deal with CI failure's cascading effects on the affected community. The urban poor are particularly exposed to the high risk of impacts from potential hazards, living in peri-urban areas and informal settlements. They often endure complex challenges such as land insecurity, faulty shelters in high-risk areas, high population density, violence and a general lack of economic resilience. This study compares the impact of cascading effects of CI service failure caused by torrential flood/landslides, on communities residing in the formal and informal settlement in Medellin city, Colombia. The study attempts to validate the hypothesis, whether cascading effects are severe in informal settlements than in formal settlement.
Keywords: Critical infrastructure services, cascading effects, torrential rainfall/landslides, informal settlements

Latent Failures in supply chain management: Lessons from the Grenfell Tower Case
Jan Hayes
RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia
The high-risk building sector has been hit by recurring building fires in recent years including the Dubai Torch fires in 2015 and 2017 and most recently the Grenfell Tower disaster in London which resulted in 72 deaths in June 2017. In all cases, a small fire in an apartment has rapidly escalated via building cladding that does not comply with fire regulations. As such, it is tempting to see these problems as being an issue of poor fire engineering. In fact, a detailed review of built environment risk management practices and regulation demonstrates a much more fundamental issue.

In parallel with the formal inquiry into the circumstances surrounding the Grenfell disaster itself, the Building a Safer Future study led by Dame Judith Hackitt has comprehensively demonstrated that there are significant issues with risk governance of supply chains in particular. Complex and fragmented building regulations fail to detect problems such as purchased materials that do not meet design specifications and systems installed in ways that are inconsistent with design. Materials are sometimes used in ways not consistent with their design. Contracting strategies aimed at moving cost and responsibility to others create conflict between stakeholders along the supply chain so that ongoing public safety is no longer a primary consideration.

This might be seen a problem simply in the UK built environment sector but that would be a mistake. Recent research in Australia shows that the built environment sector faces similar problems there. Surely construction of traditional hazardous infrastructure has better change management and more of a focus on long term safety? The recent In Plain Sight review from the UK Institution of Civil Engineers throws this assumption into doubt, too.

Smart cities require buildings that can be relied upon to keep their residents safe. The global population is growing rapidly and as a result, cities around the world are experiencing increased densification i.e. more high-rise apartment buildings. At the same time, globalization of supply chains has made new and cheaper materials available but also increased the possibility of counterfeit or off specification materials creeping into the system. This paper unpacks evidence of construction supply chain problems and proposes how risk governance can be improved in such complex, interconnected systems.

Keywords: Supply chain management, building safety, building regulation
Wed, 16 Jun -11:15 - 12:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Risk Perception 4

Beyond the White Male Effect of Risk Perception: Do White Males Worry About Terrorism?
Saman Rashid, Anna Olofsson
Risk and Crisis Research Centre, Mid Sweden University, Oestersund, Sweden
Previous research has shown that white males have a relatively low perception of risks, known as the ‘white male effect’ (WME). Many of the explanations of this effect refer to the privileged position of this particular demographic group in society, adducing white males’ socio-economic resources, sense of control, worldviews etc. However, few studies have investigated if the emotional aspect of worry is similarly divided according to privileged positions. Therefore the aim of this study is to investigate whether there is a WME when it comes to worry, and in particular worry about terrorism. The study uses Global Terrorism Database (GDT) and Swedish National Annual Survey (SOM). The empirical results show that worry about terrorism co-vary with terrorism activities conducted in Sweden as well as in foreign countries of the same geo-cultural region. It also shows that women, in general, are more worried about terrorism than men. However, when people with foreign backgrounds are accounted for, the general difference between the sexes declines and a clear deference in worry between native and foreign born people appears, i e. foreign-born people are more worried about terrorism than native-born people. The chief finding is that there is a week empirical support for WME in Sweden, which it is concluded results from the relative equality between the sexes in the country. On the other hand, ethnicity serves a marker of inequality and discrimination in Sweden. Consequently, ethnicity, in terms of foreign background, mediates inequality, resulting in high worry about terrorism.
Keywords: the white male effect, worry, terrorism

Spatial Analysis of Subjective Risk Perceptions and Objective Risk Indicators in Lithuania
Aistė Balžekienė, Audronė Telešienė
Kaunas University of Technology, Kaunas, Lithuania
Subjective risk perceptions of general public reveal the gaps and misinterpretations of the likelihood and possible impact of different threats, that may lead to inadequate risk mitigation and adaptation behaviors. We aim to explore “riskscapes” (Mahn and Everts, 2013) that refer to attribution of risks to specific territories; public experiential knowledge and perception of risks related to their living spaces and everyday experiences.

Our presentation will juxtapose data from public risk perception with the objective data of risk indicators in Lithuania aiming to identify the spatial discrepancies between subjective risk perceptions and the levels of risks in Lithuanian municipalities. Objective data was collected for 30 indicators, representing five risk dimensions: social, economic, environmental, technological and geopolitical (identification of dimensions was based on the classification from Global Risk report by World economic forum). Public risk perception data is based on representative public opinion survey, conducted in 2020, with 2007 respondents. The geolocation of respondents was recorded, and sample included respondents from all 60 municipalities in Lithuania. Questionnaire included risk perception of 30 risks that are adequate to the objective indicators, analyzed in the presentation. We use the same spatial reference system for aggregated objective data and risk perception data in order to reveal spatial distribution of vulnerabilities and complexity of risks.

This research contributes to the methodological advancement of spatial risk analysis and addressing risk complexities.

Presentation is based on a research project “Mapping of Risk Perception in Lithuania: Spatial and Socio-psychological Dimensions” (Risk-Space), funded by Research Council of Lithuania (S-MIP-19-28).

Keywords: risk perception; spatial risk analysis, risk dimensions, riskscape

Citizen engagement with risks, uncertainties and everyday implications of low-carbon energy system transitions in Port Talbot in South Wales
Nick Pidgeon 1, Karen Henwood 2, Chris Groves 2, Cherry Catherine 1, Thomas Gareth 1, Roberts Erin 2
1 Understanding Risk Group, School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom
2 Understanding Risk Group, School of Social Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom
The implications, perceived risks and unintended consequences of new technologies for patterns of everyday life will be one of the major challenges in many countries as they move to implement the low carbon, secure energy systems of the future. Using methods from interpretive and deliberative risk research, this paper describes the methodology and preliminary findings of a project to engage citizens of an industrial town with the transitions that might be required to achieve low carbon energy locally. The fieldwork location for this programme of research is Port Talbot in South Wales, a town dominated by an existing steelworks which is also one of the UK’s largest single site emitters of greenhouse gasses. Moving such heavy industrial areas to low carbon energy use is one of the most difficult technical and social decarbonisation problems currently facing governments round the world. The paper describes how a multi-disciplinary team developed different scenarios of energy system change for the region, and the conduct of 4 day-long workshops with citizens living in or with connections to the town to explore their responses. Preliminary findings point to the importance of local context and place in the interpretation of the risks and benefits of energy system futures, alongside the impacts of proposed changes upon related issues such as local air pollution risks and health. This study provides rare insight into citizen responses to ways of decarbonising heavily industrialised regions, and forms a part of the larger Flexible Integrated Energy Systems (FLEXIS) research initiative in South Wales.
Keywords: citizen engagement and energy
Wed, 16 Jun -12:00 - 12:45
- Nordic chapter of SRA-E
Wed, 16 Jun -12:00 - 12:45
- DACHL chapter of SRA-E
Wed, 16 Jun -12:00 - 12:45
- Iberian chapter of SRA-E
Wed, 16 Jun -12:00 - 12:45
- Benelux chapter of SRA-E
Wed, 16 Jun -12:45 - 14:15
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Trust, mistrust, distrust and trust-building in the nuclear sector: historical and comparative experience from Europe

Nuclear waste and “repertoires” of trust: comparison of four countries
Markku Lehtonen 1, Ana Prades 2, Josep Espluga 3, Wilfried Konrad 4
1 Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
2 CIEMAT (Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas, Medioambientales y Tecnológicas), Barcelona, Spain
3 Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, UAB, Barcelona, Spain
4 Dialogik Institute, Stuttgart, Germany
This article compares trust relations in nuclear waste management in four countries, notably the industry and government attempts to build trust in deep geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste (HLW)[1]. To do so we draw on the concept of ‘repertoires’, to create a typology according to the degree to which actors have either trusted or mistrusted government HLW policy, and whether they have been active or passive in relation to this policy. Using the concept of institutional trust (trust in institutions) as an indicator, we identify Finland as a ‘high-trust society’ with advanced plans for a repository; Germany as a ‘medium-trust’ society with repository planning still at early stages, and France and Spain as ‘low-trust societies’ with a final disposal and centralised temporary waste storage project, respectively, at an advanced stage.

Through the concept of repertoire – with its two dimensions of trust/mistrust and activeness/passiveness – we will trace the dynamics of trust and mistrust throughout the evolution of the respective HLW management programmes, identify major turning points and explore the main factors that have shaped trust/mistrust relations over time. Comparison between high, medium and low-trust societies allows us to explore the role of trust in shaping nuclear waste policies. The distinction between activeness and passiveness, in turn, reveals key differences within the country groupings.

Our analysis underlines the importance of historical antecedents in shaping trust relations, and the potential downsides of trust and virtues of mistrust in HLW policy, in the prevailing complex multistakeholder and multilevel governance settings. We conclude by critically examining the roles of trust, mistrust and efforts to build trust in radioactive waste management policy.

The article draws on material collected by both historians and social scientists within the EU-funded HoNESt project, as well as on semi-structured interviews with key actors involved in the HLW management policies in the four countries.

[1] In the following, we shall employ the terms radioactive waste management and nuclear waste management to refer precisely to HLW management (as opposed to low- and intermediate-level waste management).

Keywords: Trust, mistrust, radioactive waste, siting of risky facilities

Trusting the State?: Communicating and Governing Risk in the aftermath of the Chernobyl accident in the Eastern Mediterranean
Stathis Arapostathis, Serkan Karas
The paper studies the governance of risk in Eastern Mediterranean by focusing on the state management of the Chernobyl accident’s implications in Greece and Turkey. The main research questions are relevant to the role and function of the state: How did the state govern and manage information relevant to the accident and the relevant public health risks? How did the state communicate risks from the accident and the nuclear power? How did state manage the public’s fear and trust in institutions? The aftermath of the Chernobyl accident had led to various reactions from expert and political establishments of the affected countries. Based on these factors, measurements of contamination were assessed to evaluate risks and design policies for precautions. In the paper, we illustrate this difference in the management of the crisis following analyzing comparatively the two most seriously contaminated countries of the Eastern Mediterranean: Greece and Turkey. The management of the risks in the aftermath of the Chernobyl accident created a common space for the interplay of expertise and state governance. Depending on the geography and political framework, states (re)acted to manage multiple challenges this transnational danger brought into their borders. Experts, state officials and politicians had to evaluate measurements, and define risk and danger limits in order to set the terms for the management of the crisis. In this paper we explore the two cases, Turkey and Greece, in order to answer which actors were responsible for the governance of the Chernobyl crisis and how they performed in doing so. By comparing a new-member of EU in the Balkans, Greece, and a post-coup country bordering several sub-regions, especially seriously affected Black Sea basin, Turkey, we reveal the role of expert in defining the risks and dangers, and in shaping the governance of the state in face of the emergency of the accident. We show that different interests, politics and geography led to the different types of state governance and methods of expert legitimization. We argue that experts provided a key role in framing the problem and in directing state’s governance of the fear and the uncertainty during the crucial days at the aftermath of the accident. The paper is based on archival research in both countries and the analysis of expert reports, media publications and articles relevant to the incident.
Keywords: Chernobyl, risk management, state, Greece, Turkey

News frames, trust and distrust - Leading newspapers making sense of final disposal of nuclear waste in Finland and France
Matti Kojo 1, Mika Kari 1, 2, Markku Lehtonen 3, Tapio Litmanen 2
1 Faculty of Management and Business, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
2 Faculty of Social Sciences and Philosophy, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, Finland
3 Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
Building confidence in the safety of a repository project, and trust in the responsible organisations and individuals, is essential for a successful geological repository project. Finland and France are, together with Sweden, the international frontrunners in advancing towards the implementation of such repository projects for their high-level nuclear waste. However, the two projects differ from each other significantly in terms of the levels of public trust as well as in the measures adopted to build and strengthen trust. The two projects are also embedded in very different contexts. In particular, citizen trust in state institutions in Finland is among the highest in the world, whereas deep institutional mistrust prevails in France.

This presentation further explores the cross-country similarities and differences between the two countries in their respective efforts of building trust and confidence in nuclear waste management. We do so by examining the framings of the issue of high-level radioactive waste management in two leading newspapers, Helsingin Sanomat (Finland) and Le Monde (France), during the period 2005-2018, that is, when both countries’ repository projects were advancing towards implementation. Our analysis focuses in particular on the framing of trust, mistrust and distrust in media reporting on risks and safety on the one hand, and social acceptance, acceptability, and resistance on the other.

The comparison helps to identify national specificities as well as common features in the debates. We apply methodologies of frame analysis in order to explore how different societal actor groups define issues, problems, and proposed policy measures. Framing also shapes policy, through its impact on which specific aspects of perceived reality receive attention, which problem definitions and moral judgements prevail, and which policy measures win most support.

Our analysis links directly with recent debates and developments concerning the role of safety and risk issues in building and maintaining trust. The cross-country comparison helps to better understand how characteristics of the wider societal context interact with technological choices and changes.

Keywords: nuclear waste, safety, media, framing of trust

Social Licence to Operate – a (false) solution to problems of trust in nuclear waste management policies?
Matti Kojo 1, Markku Lehtonen 2, Mika Kari 1, Tapio Litmanen 3, Tuija Jartti 3
1 Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
2 Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain
3 University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, Finland
The past couple of decades have seen the emergence of the notion of social licence to operate (SLO). Originally developed by the mining industry as a mechanism to ensure its continued viability in the face of growing criticism and opposition against mining projects (Owen and Kemp, 2013, 29), SLO has over the years spread to many other industrial sectors. The SLO approach aims at helping developers to incorporate a model of consultation that engages local communities in ways that could enhance transparency and local support, and complement formal regulatory processes (cf. Hall et al. 2015). Earning the trust of the local community constitutes the very core and key requirement of the notion of SLO.

The concept of SLO not having thus far been widely adopted in by the nuclear waste management (NWM) community, we critically examine the potential and pitfalls of SLO in this policy area. Via systematic analysis of documentation and stakeholder interviews, we examine the experience of three countries that are at the forefront of NWM policies: Finland and Sweden as Nordic ‘high-trust’ societies’, and France, dubbed by some scholars as the ‘country of mistrust’. Our analysis highlights the ambiguous roles of trust and mistrust in SLO-inspired approaches, and argues for greater attention to the multiple dimensions and roles of trust and mistrust, and to the problematic articulation between the various levels of governance in SLO scholarship and policy. A more fine-grained analysis of the role and nature of trust and mistrust, as well as sensitivity to cultural specificities will be needed to make SLO a useful tool in NWM policy.

Keywords: nuclear waste, trust, social licence
Wed, 16 Jun -12:45 - 14:15
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Technologies for the future and the public’s perception of uncertainties, risks and benefits

Perceived risks and acceptability of solar radiation management: Insights from a cross-cultural study
Nadja Contzen 1, 2, Linda Steg 2, Goda Perlaviciute 2
1 Eawag, Dübendorf, Switzerland
2 University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands
To prevent the worst risks of global warming, it is necessary to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. As even drastic reductions in carbon emissions might not be sufficient to reach this goal, it has been proposed to reduce the global temperature directly, for example through solar radiation management (SRM). Deployment of SRM, however, is controversial, especially because the potential risks of SRM would cross borders and affect countries unequally. For the ongoing international discussion and decision-making on the deployment of SRM, it is therefore crucial to get a global picture on perceived risks and benefits of and the public acceptability of SRM. The limited research on public perceptions of SRM, however, has mostly focused on Western countries.

We conducted an online survey on perceived risks and benefits, and acceptability of SRM among students from 19 countries from all continents (aside Antarctica). While participants were overall undecided on or slightly in favour of the deployment of SRM, acceptability ratings differed slightly between countries, however, without revealing a clear geographical and/or cultural pattern. Overall, perceived risks and benefits for nature correlated strongly with perceived risks and benefits for humans; and both, risks and benefits for nature and humans, were associated with the perceived effectiveness of SRM to mitigate global warming. Importantly, perceived risks and benefits for nature and humans largely explained acceptability of SRM, overall and in the different countries. In contrast, perceived economic risks and benefits of SRM as well as perceived risks of climate change were overall only weakly related with acceptability of SRM, although relationships differed across countries. Our results highlight first, that around the globe SRM receives only cautious support, if at all, and second, the need for an inclusive international discussion and decision-making on the deployment of SRM.

Additional co-authors: Adel Al Alam, Susana Alves, David Bidwell, Gisela Böhm, Marino Bonaiuto, Federica Dessi, Maria do Carmo Eulálio, Li-Fang Chou, Victor Corral-Verdugo, Thomas Dietz, Kelly Fielding, Juliana V. Granskaya, Tatyana Gurikova, Bernardo Hernández, Maira Pobedovna Kabakova, Chieh-Yu Lee, Fan LI, Luisa Lima, Lu Liu, Sílvia Luís, Gabriel Muinos, Charles A. Ogunbode, María Victoria Ortiz, Nick Pidgeon, Maria Argüello Pitt, Leila Rahimi, Anastasia Revokatova, Cristina Gómez Román, Charbel Salloum, Geertje Schuitema, Cecilia Reyna, Rachael Shwom, Michael Siegrist, Elspeth Spence, Bernadette Sütterlin, Nur Soylu Yalcinkaya


How disgust influences people’s risk perceptions and behavior
Michael Siegrist
ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Food intake, sexuality or interactions with other humans do not only have obvious benefits, but these activities are also associated with the risk of getting in contact with pathogens. Disgust is part of the behavioral immune system that reduces the contact with and thus the likelihood of infections from bacteria, parasites and viruses. The mouth is one important entry point for pathogens. Therefore, we developed a food disgust sensitivity scale that has been shown to be reliable and valid. I will present results of various experiments and surveys suggesting that disgust sensitivity is not only related to hygienic behavior, food intake and food waste production, but also how immigrants are perceived. High food disgust sensitive people are more afraid of illnesses brought into the country from immigrants compared with low food disgust sensitive people. We could further demonstrate that people with high food disgust sensitivity have difficulties to ignore disgust evoking cues that are clearly not associated with the risk of pathogens. Disgust is also a factor that influences people’s risk perceptions of food hazards and the acceptance of novel food technologies. Disgust is an important emotion that protects us, but there is also a dark side to this emotion.

Science, sustainability and my tomatoes: People’s perceptions of green biotechnology
Angela Bearth 1, Gulbanu Kaptan 2, Sabrina Heike Kessler 3
1 Consumer Behavior, Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
2 Centre for Decision Research, Leeds University Business School, Leeds, United Kingdom
3 Science Communication, Department of Communication and Media Research, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Producing safe and high-quality food, while handling consumer aversion towards food technologies that are perceived as unnatural, are among the challenges that today’s food industry faces. Food biotechnology contributes to the solution of some of these challenges, for example by avoiding food waste with the use of plastic wraps or by reducing the use of pesticides with genetic modification. The latter technology has been under a significant amount of scrutiny from the public, which has been linked to the framing of the media and public discourse. The main goal of this study was to examine whether people differentiate between the newer technology of gene editing and genetic modification when presented with information about these technologies. In addition, the study aimed at investigating people’s associations and affect, and what impact different media formats and the communication of scientific uncertainty have on people’s perceptions and acceptance. For this, an online experiment was conducted with participants from Switzerland (n = 505) and the UK (N = 490). The experimental part was a 2 (scientific uncertainty: high vs. low) by 2 (media format: journalistic vs. user-generated) by 2 (technology: GM food vs GE food) mixed design. Dependent variables were risk and benefit perceptions and people’s personal acceptance. The results suggest that people differentiate between genetic modification and gene editing and that acceptance is higher for the latter technology. The general and personal acceptance of these technologies depends largely on people’s risk and benefit perceptions, their trust and knowledge about biotechnology. Furthermore, implications can be drawn regarding the communication of scientific uncertainty and the trust in media communicating about these technologies. Overall, the study sheds an optimistic light on people’s willingness to accept gene editing in the food domain in both countries. However, it is vital to learn from past communication errors and ensure an informed discourse regarding new food technologies.
Keywords: risk perception, uncertainty, green biotechnology, gene editing
Wed, 16 Jun -12:45 - 14:15
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Challenging the nexus resilience - vulnerability - risk awareness - social capital

How to improve taking into consideration vulnerable groups, case Finland
Jaana Keränen 1, Merja Airola 1, Miia Myllylä 2, Pirjo Jukarainen 2
1 Technical Research Centre of Finland VTT, Tampere, Finland
2 Police University College of Finland, Tampere, Finland
The Sendai Framework for Disaster Reduction 2015-2030 points out that the exposure of people and assets to disasters has increased faster than attempts to decrease vulnerability. The Framework also calls more attention to people and the local level, since individuals and local communities possess capabilities, networks, methods, tools and means to absorb impacts and recover. Thus, the knowhow and skills that are available at the root-level deserve to be recognised and build into the policies and strategies for disaster risk reduction and enhancing of resilience.

In disasters it is not always obvious who really are in the most vulnerable position. They can be persons with physical disabilities or children who do not understand the severity of the disaster. They can also be people without language skills such as tourists or merely people who just are not willing to leave their property under the threat. Some of the most vulnerable are the ones that need attention from the voluntary organisations, such as socially marginalised, people with substance abuse problems, and simply people with any social networks. What is also typical with such vulnerable groups is lack of trust networks, including trust in institutions, skills, and knowledge; their social capital is weak.

Especially the most vulnerable population groups’ resilience has so far stayed in the unknown and outside research focus. Societal resilience calls for building of social capital, i.e. investments in people and communities in addition to infrastructures. Strengthening the social capital, risk awareness and preparedness of the most vulnerable segments of the societies and communities will increase understanding on what societal resilience comprises. Individual and collective behaviour in disasters and hazardous situations is one part of resilience

To improve the overall resilience of people, communities and thereby the whole society, it is important to focus on the most vulnerable individuals, groups and communities also from authorities' side.

This paper presents findings of segments of vulnerability and vulnerable groups in past crises and disasters in the Finnish context and how to improve the knowhow of police authorties to understand their needs.

Keywords: disaster, resilience, vulnerability, police

Institutional rules, practices and experiences in handling misinformation in disaster management
Sten Torpan, Sten Hansson, Kati Orru
University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
The role of communication in preventing and managing emergency situations has been thoroughly studied but the effects of the spread of misinformation (incl. in social media) on risk and crisis management needs more scholarly attention. In this study, we work towards a systematic comparative understanding of the practices of handling misinformation in the emergency management systems in Europe.

In crisis context, misinformation may distort people’s risk perceptions and put them in greater danger. To better understand institutional coping with misinformation in crisis preparation and management, we analyse how different institutions concerned with crisis management conceptualise misinformation and what are their experiences in handling it. We have collected and synthesised information about the crisis communication systems and practices in 8 European countries (Estonia, Finland, Sweden, Germany, Norway, Belgium, Italy and Hungary), including insights from more than 40 expert interviews with crisis managers and a document analysis of relevant policies, regulations, and official guidelines.

The study unveils new opportunities for re-evaluating institutional rules and practices and enhancing risk communication in ways that would grant better preparedness and responses to crises by institutions as well as the members of public.

This work is part of the large Horizon 2020 research project BuildERS ( that seeks to improve people’s resilience to various natural and human-made crises by strengthening the social capital, risk awareness and preparedness of the most vulnerable segments of societies.

Keywords: misinformation, crisis management, vulnerability

The conceptual approach of BuildERS
Claudia Morsut
University of Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway
This is the first presentation of the symposium aboutthe Horizon 2020 project BuildERS, Building European Communities’ Resilience and Social Capital (2019 - 2022). The linkages between risk awareness, social capital and vulnerability, with special reference to implications for resilience building and disaster risks reduction, are introduced in this presentation, the first of the symposium on Challenging the nexus resilience - vulnerability - risk awareness - social capital, which presents the findings of the first year of implementation of the H2020 project BuildERS, Building European Communities’ Resilience and Social Capital (2019 - 2022). Vulnerability and resilience have extensively studied and applied in the disaster and emergency management literature (Reuter and Spielhofer, 2017; Krüger, 2019; Tierney, 2019), but few investigations have looked at how risk awareness, social capital and vulnerability influence each other in resilience building. This presentation will provide information on the process which led to the BuildERS theoretical framework.
Keywords: Model, vulnerability, resilience, risk awareness

Challenges in measuring vulnerability – lessons from BuildERS
Christian H. A. Kuran
University of Stavanger, Institute for Safety, Economics and Planning, Stavanger, Norway
The presentation discusses the term vulnerable groups and covers various methodological challenges in the quantitative study of vulnerability in national and cross-national surveys (see Cutter 1996). Defining some groups as vulnerable makes it easier for crisis managers and decision makers to organize aid and preparedness in the crisis management cycle. The ability to prioritize the vulnerable groups is both convenient and practical in planning, crisis management and risk governance (Aven and Renn, 2010) since categories of vulnerable groups help to allocate resources where there is most need.

However, the categorization of the vulnerable groups is not simply an objective technocratic or statistical exercise. In addition, to be singled out as vulnerable could be experienced as stigmatising for individuals and groups. The social construction of the term vulnerable groups is therefore interesting when studying governmentality in its own right. How vulnerable groups are qualitatively and quantitatively defined by governmental institutions in order to develop targeted policies can and should be deconstructed using an intersectional approach.

The presentation first covers the definitions of the use on the term vulnerable groups from grey and scientific literature (Schöpfel, 2010), which was studied in relation to BuildERS Work Package 1. Second, the validity of the term vulnerable groups in cross national surveys and the challenges to reliability in such studies is discussed based on insights from Work Package 3. Finally, the presentation will summarise how researchers can use the BuildERS’ butterfly model in combination with intersectionality perspectives to circumvent methodological pitfalls and strengthen the validity and reliability of studies of vulnerable groups in cross national surveys.


Aven, T., & Renn, O. (2010). Risk management and governance : concepts, guidelines and applications (Vol. volume 16). Dordrecht: Springer.

Cutter, S. L. (1996). Vulnerability to environmental hazards. Progress in human geography, 20(4), 529-539.

Schöpfel, J. (2010, 2010-12-06). Towards a Prague Definition of Grey Literature. Paper presented at the Twelfth International Conference on Grey Literature: Transparency in Grey Literature. Grey Tech Approaches to High Tech Issues. Prague, 6-7 December 2010, Czech Republic.

Keywords: Vulnerability, methodology, vulnerable groups

Addressing individual and group vulnerabilities in crisis management: insights from eight EU countries
Kati Orru, Piia Tammpuu
University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
Recent disaster and emergency management studies increasingly focus on the concepts of social vulnerability and resilience, yet the fields of (institutionalised) social support and governance for alleviating vulnerabilities are yet to be developed.

In this paper we seek to develop a more systematic understanding of general patterns of resilience management practices targeted at mitigating and alleviating the vulnerability of individuals and groups. We have collected and synthesised information about the crisis management systems and practices in 8 European countries (Estonia, Finland, Sweden, Germany, Norway, Belgium, Italy and Hungary), including insights from more than 40 expert interviews with crisis managers and a document analysis of relevant policies, regulations, and official guidelines. We base our findings on multidisciplinary case studies of notable man-made and natural crises. The primarily qualitative material enables to indicate similarities and differences in interpretations and functioning of the crisis management systems in handling vulnerable groups across Europe.

The research indicates whether and how vulnerability is considered in national approaches in crisis governance; and, how the resilience of a variety of population groups is conceptualised and taken into account. These questions allow us to find out whether or not some groups are ‘forgotten’ in national resilience/crisis management planning in Europe.

The study presents insights from the Horizon 2020 research project BuildERS ( that explores the strengths and limitations in resilience governance throughout Europe and illuminates what helps individuals and communities to cope and /or makes them vulnerable to various crises.

Keywords: Crisis management, vulnerability, cross-country comparison
Wed, 16 Jun -14:30 - 16:00
Symposium - Psychological Aspects of Risk Perception and Behavior

Surfing in the streets: how problematic smartphone use, fear of missing out and driving behavior are linked to antisocial personality
Matthias Hudecek 1, 3, Simon Lemster 1, Susanne Gaube 1, Eva Lermer 2, 3
1 Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany
2 LMU Center for Leadership and People Management, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany
3 FOM University of Applied Sciences for Economics & Management, Munich, Germany
Both driving a car and using a smartphone are aspects of everyday life based on highly complex cognitive processes in which social and antisocial personality traits play an important role. Building on the ongoing debate about the dangers of smartphone use at the wheel, this study, which was conducted via online questionnaire in a German sample (n = 969), investigated the extent to which different personality traits commonly perceived as negative are related to problematic smartphone use and car driving behavior: First, the connections between problematic smartphone use, Fear of Missing Out and the screen time spent with social media usage were examined. Secondly, to assess the role of antisocial personality traits at the wheel, the concept of the Dark Triad (narcissism, psychopathy, Machiavellianism) and its cognitive and behavioral correlates in the context of driving were explored: Based on previous findings, it was assumed that higher narcissism values are associated with higher driving competence self-perception. In addition, it was suspected that higher psychopathic values were associated with a higher probability of committing traffic offences. Finally, it was exploratively investigated to what extent Machiavellianism is related to compensatory behavior during smartphone use at the wheel. The results support the hypotheses of positive correlations between problematic smartphone use, Fear of Missing Out and screen time. In addition, as expected, positive correlations were found between narcissism and driving competence self-perception, between psychopathy and traffic offenses, and, to a limited extent, between Machiavellianism and compensatory behavior when using a smartphone at the wheel. These findings help in understanding the extent to which the personality can influence problematic driving and mobile phone use through various mechanisms and open up room for further research, especially in the context of compensatory behavior.

Troll with a Cause – Trolling, Personality, and Social Exclusion
Sara Alida Volkmer 1, Susanne Gaube 2, Martina Raue 3, Eva Lermer 4, 5
1 Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen, Germany
2 Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany
3 MIT AgeLab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, United States
4 FOM University of Applied Sciences for Economics & Management, Munich, Germany
5 LMU Center for Leadership and People Management, Munich, Germany
Using modern information technology has the potential to make people’s lives easier while also presenting the risk of aggressive online discourse. Such negative interaction is often caused by internet trolls who are tactically aggressive to increase emotional responses and to disrupt actual discussion. Online trolling presents risks for the well-being of receivers of this treatment and might also prevent users from engaging in online discussions. Furthermore, trolls also face the risk of being socially shunned and excluded from platforms. This begs the question, why do people troll?

The present preregistered (osf) experiment had two aims: Our first research question (RQ1) tested the previously established relationship between internet users’ baseline trolling behavior and the Dark Tetrad of personality (Machiavellianism, narcissism, psychopathy, and sadism). Our second research question (RQ2) explored the effect of experiencing social exclusion on people’s immediate motivation to troll others. To investigate these questions, we conducted an online experiment in which participants (interim results n = 711) completed self-report questionnaires assessing personality and baseline trolling (i.e., someone’s regular trolling activities). Afterwards, participants were randomized to either a social inclusion or a social exclusion condition using the Cyberball paradigm. Finally, participants rated their immediate trolling motivation. To answer RQ1, we looked at the correlations between the Dark Tetrad traits and baseline trolling behavior. To answer RQ2, a t-test compared included and excluded participants concerning their immediate trolling motivation.

Preliminary results regarding RQ1 indicate highly significant correlations between baseline trolling and each trait of the Dark Tetrad. However, our analysis for RQ2 does not suggest that excluded participants have a higher trolling motivation than included participants. The present study confirms that trolling behavior is associated with Machiavellianism, narcissism, psychopathy, and sadism. While having higher scores of the Dark Tetrad traits appears to increase the risk of engaging in trolling behavior, this was not the case for social exclusion. This study contributes to cyber risk research by investigating potential causes of internet trolls.

Keywords: online trolling, dark tetrad, dark triad, social exclusion, cyber risk

The structure of risk culture – Evidence from the health and weight context
Moritz Bielefeld, Bernhard Streicher, Júlia Santamaria Navarro
UMIT - Private University, Hall in Tyrol, Austria
One of the current focuses of risk research is on systemic risks such as climate change, political radicalization, and the major health risks of the western world. Such risks are highly complex and multidimensional. Accordingly, research approaches should both reflect the multilayeredness and provide integrative and applicable concepts that holistically link different aspects from research and real risk situations. In the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2008 a huge demand for risk research and governance emerged and the concept of risk culture was identified as a key driver as it integrates different research perspectives and risk factors. Since the concept of risk culture includes on the one hand the breadth of integrating many research strands and on the other hand the depth to consider aspects at different levels, it appears to be a comprehensive approach. However, many research strands seem to stand alone lacking an integrative model that serves as a theoretical foundation regarding risk culture. Based on risk culture and organizational culture, an integrative risk culture framework (RCF) that covers many risk aspects and factors was introduced by Streicher, Bielefeld and Eller. The RCF comprises different levels on which risk factors occur (person, social context, risk situation) and different dimensions of accessibility (observable, non-observable, implicit factors) in a 3x3 factor structure. Based on this, initial exploratory risk culture measures on the context of health and weight were developed and assessed. In a first study, the risk culture model was transferred to the subject of health, assessed, and evaluated with regard to the fit of the theoretically assumed model structure. These initial results support the model assumptions of the RCF. Based on this first insight, a further study on weight-related risk culture was conducted. Based on the initial data, particularly central factors and items were selected and the measures were evaluated and optimized. Thus, the first foundation for the purpose of a description or explanation of a health and weight related risk culture is given, which subsequently enables further in-depth analyses or profiles. We present the frameworks ability to integrate central findings from risk research, its first evidence and measures and the possibility to analyze the interactions and influences of different factors of all levels.
Keywords: risk culture, health risks, risk assumptions, risk culture measurement

Background Uncertainty Increases Risk Aversion in Decision-Making
Johannes Leder 1, Astrid Schütz 1, Thomas Lauer 2, Özgür Gürerk 2
1 University of Bamberg, Bamberg, Germany
2 University of Erfurt, Erfurt, Germany
When making a decision under uncertainty, background events that are independent of the actual decision are often present. Previous research shows that the presence of background uncertainty results in increased risk aversion, the observed effects, however, are inconsistent. We argue that the inconsistencies reported by the previous work are due to different conceptions of uncertainty. In studies where the probabilities and the properties of outcomes of the background event were unknown, i.e., background ambiguity, the effect on risk aversion was stronger than in studies where probabilities and properties were known, i.e., background risk. Here we test the hypothesis that the level of uncertainty influences risk aversion. In four studies (total N = 405), we induced background uncertainty and measured risk aversion using behavioral measures. We used two different methodologies with different measures. Study 2 was carried out using virtual reality to induce background uncertainty, all other studies were computer-based. Two studies out of four found show strong evidence for the hypothesis that risk aversion increases with increasing background uncertainty. The evidence in one study was weak and one study failed to find an effect at all. Taken together, the results suggest that there indeed is an (weak) effect of background uncertainty on risk aversion, but the effect depends on the risk aversion measure and the level of uncertainty, i.e., background risk or ambiguity.

Human vs. machine: Comparing the effect of human and AI-enabled advice on clinical decision-making
Susanne Gaube 1, Eva Lermer 3, 4, Martina Raue 2
1 Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany
2 MIT AgeLab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, United States
3 LMU Center for Leadership and People Management, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany
4 FOM University of Applied Sciences for Economics & Management, Munich, Germany
Advocates of artificial intelligence (AI) promise that technological advances will revolutionize the field of medicine by improving diagnostic accuracy and reducing medical errors. However, little is known about healthcare providers’ acceptance of and interaction with AI-enabled technology. Both unjustified distrust and over-trust could prevent the promised improvements to materialize or might even lead to worse clinical outcomes. The present study had two main goals: First, to test whether physicians show algorithmic aversion (i.e., peoples’ preference of human to algorithmic advice) or algorithmic appreciation (i.e., peoples’ preference of algorithmic to human advice) when completing a radiology task. Second, to investigate if algorithmic aversion/appreciation affects task accuracy. In a between-subjects design, the participating radiologists (N = 138) received eight patient cases with chest-X-rays as well as preliminary findings and preliminary diagnoses for which we manipulated the source (AI-enabled model vs. a human radiologist). Participants rated the quality of the preliminary information and the quality of the source (AI vs. human). Finally, the participants were asked to make a final diagnose. Overall, the participating physicians showed aversion against the algorithmic advice in comparison to human advice: physicians rated the quality of the preliminary information to be higher when coming from a human and trusted the human more than the AI-enabled model. However, we did not find a significant difference in the accuracy of the final diagnoses between the two source-conditions. These findings provide the first empirical evidence that physicians’ subjective aversion against algorithms might not necessarily lead to worse clinical outcomes. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.
Keywords: artificial intelligence, clinical decision-making, technology acceptance, algorithmic aversion
Wed, 16 Jun -14:30 - 16:00
Symposium - Planning for Reduction of Inbound and Outbound Risks: Critical systems and components

The consideration of systemic criticality by the new German Federal Spatial Plan on Flood Protection
Stefan Greiving
TU Dortmund University Institute of Spatial Planning, Dortmund, Germany
The new German Federal Spatial Plan on Flood Protection is an attempt to improve the coordination and harmonization of the assessment and management of flood risk management practices among the 16 German federal states, but also between water management and spatial planning. The plan considers among other regulations effects of floods on critical infrastructures (CI) by introducing the concept of “protection worthiness” which has been lacking in spatial planning so far.

Service disruptions of CI could lead to cascading effects on other infrastructure sectors and may thereby affect regions outside the exposed areas and endanger entire supply chains – a proved effect of the Elbe flood in July 2013. The indirect effect of a dam failure affected the complex high-speed railway network in Germany. In consequence, the railway connection, used by 90,000 passengers a day in average, was closed for almost six months. The established alternative route caused delays of about an hour in both directions; many major towns like Wolfsburg (head office of the Volkswagen Company) were totally isolated from the high-speed network over months.

According to the Federal Spatial Plan on Flood Protection, spatial planning must weigh the protection of an CI of European importance higher against other concerns and interests hereafter due to potential cascading effects of service disruptions. The primary legal basis for critical infrastructures is the "Trans-European Networks" chapter in the Lisbon Treaty (Article 170 § 1). Council Directive 2008/114/EC on the protection of critical infrastructures of European importance lays down the secondary legal basis.

The plan was conceptualized by the author on behalf of the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community. In this context, hearings and gaming simulations were organized in order to prove the legality and applicability of the proposed regulations together with representatives of the plan’s addressees (water management, regional planning, local land-use planning, infrastructure planning and operators). The CI network which is particular worth to protect was identified by means of the regulations (EU) No. 1315/2013 and 347/2013. These regulations determine key elements of the trans-European transport network and "projects of common interest" of the European energy infrastructure whose protection matters most from a European perspective due to their relevance for the functioning of the European single market. This importance was applied as a proxy indicator for their extraordinary systemic criticality.

Keywords: critical infrastructure
spatial planning
flood risk management

Despite the continuously expanding use of the term “systemic risk” it seems that the scientific community has not arrived at a consensual conceptualization of the content and meaning of the term yet. Is it the risk of loss of functionality that systems face (especially technical infrastructure networks) under hazardous conditions (intrinsic or extrinsic)? Or, is it about cascade and ripple effects and losses covering macro-scales (in time and space) and impacting on several systems and agents? How can we delimit sub-systems at risk (risk recipients) and sub-systems causing risks (risk or hazard producers)? Do the conventional risk and risk management determinants like hazard, exposure, vulnerability, resilience, coping/adaptive capacity apply in the case of systemic risks? If they apply, what are then their basic features and how do they interact to result in systemic failures, catastrophes and disasters of wide range and scope? What could be defined as systemic vulnerability and how is it correlated with systems’ resilience?

The present work attempts to respond to the above queries by using as initial assumptions the major properties of systemic risks as put by Renn et al (2020), namely complexity, uncertainty, ambiguity, ripple effects in time and space and transboundary or cross-sectoral consequences. As basic methodological tools the author takes advantage of real experience cases (analytical realism) and mental constructions simulating the process of systemic risk production and manifestation.

Keywords: systemic risk, systemic vulnerability, complex systems' resilience

Can insurance-based approaches help people living and working in urban informal settlements to manage systemic risks?
Cassidy Johnson
The Bartlett Development Planning Unit, University College London, London, United Kingdom
Informal environments in urban areas are more likely than formally developed areas to be adversely impacted by both extensive (small-scale) disaster events and intensive (large-scale) disaster events. These include exposure to natural and climate change induced hazards such as flooding, storms and landslides as well as public health outbreaks, such as the covid-19 pandemic or other localised outbreaks, and human-made disasters such as evictions. The increased risks for those living in informal settlements is due to the confluence of a number of factors, including risk-exposed locations within the city, insecure land tenure, over-crowded buildings that are not adherent to building standards and codes, precarious employment, limited savings and safetynets, and lack of infrastructure and services, including limited access to affordable healthcare. People living and working in informal settlements suffer greater (1) absolute loss from damage to physical structures and other assets, (2) impacts on health and (3) impacts on livelihoods.

Insurance based approaches could have an important role in managing the risks of disasters in informal urban environments as it could (1) help residents and business owners to rebuild and re-establish premises and other goods needed for trading; (2) Mitigate cascading risks, for example, by providing cash to prevent destitution and exposure to health and social risks; (3) help governments to protect their infrastructure and services. Yet, the use of insurance in informal urban environments is not widespread. This is due to a number of inter-related factors, including access, data, cost and perception.

This presentation seeks to explore what we know about how insurance-based approaches, such as social protection, micro-insurance and risk pooling could help to responding systemic risks (inbound and outbound) and the cascading effects of disasters particularly for those living and working in the conetxt of urban informal settlements.

Keywords: critical systems, cascading risks, insurance, informal settlements

Resilience-based thinking: what opportunities for better grasping complex risk dynamics?
Adriana Galderisi
University of Campania Luigi Vanvitelli - Department of Architecture and Industrial Design, Aversa (CE), Italy
The emergence of global risks like the Covid-19 outbreak, which are likely to be more frequent in a more and more interconnected world, highlights once again some of the limits of current approaches to risk knowledge and management and the urgency of new conceptual and analytical approaches to improve risk understanding and management.

This contribution analyzes the main changes that characterize current risk landscapes, more and more characterized by the coexistence and interactions of local and global risks, explores the main gaps in current risk-based thinking, with particular reference to the Italian context, and provides some hints for its evolution.

Despite the increasing awareness of the high levels of uncertainty and complexity that characterize current risk landscapes, risk analysis and assessment are still largely based on deterministic approaches and focused on single hazards, with very few attempts to move from a simple overlapping of different hazards toward approaches and tools capable of taking into account the likely interactions between hazards as well as among the different exposed elements. In the field of vulnerability studies, although the multidimensionality of the concept has been long widely recognized, studies on the systemic dimension of the latter are still limited. Based on these considerations, we will focus on the opportunities that the adoption of a resilience-based thinking might open up to better understanding complexities and uncertainties of current risk landscapes, focusing in particular on the role of learning capacity loops as well as of the panarchy model to better grasp systems’ interactions across different temporal and spatial scales.

Wed, 16 Jun -16:15 - 17:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Climate Change 2

Subjective and objective neighborhood effects in climate change risk mitigation behavior: Empirical evidence from households in Germany
Victoria Hünewaldt, Daniel Osberghaus
ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany
Since frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as floods or heat waves, increase as a result of climate change, it is important to investigate which factors might influence the adoption of respective risk mitigation measures at the household level. In this context, neighborhood effects (NE), i.e., the impact of the neighbors’ behavior on one’s own, could play an important role. Therefore, we examine whether the number of adopted mitigation measures in one’s own district or municipality (defined as objective NE) or knowing that neighbors have installed them (defined as subjective NE) positively influences one’s own risk mitigation behavior. This study presents the results of empirical panel and cross-sectional analyses based on a large-scale household survey in Germany (panel: 12,577 observations; cross-section: 6190 observations). We conduct multivariate logistic regressions in order to provide detailed insights into the influence of NE on different types of mitigation behavior: structural / behavioral heat and flood mitigation measures as well as the purchase of flood insurance for residential buildings and contents. We do not only contribute to current research by being the first to analyze NE regarding heat mitigation behavior, but more importantly, by considering not only subjective but also objective NE regarding natural hazard risk mitigation behavior.

Our results partly confirm the existence of NE in this context. We find a significant and substantial positive effect of knowing about the neighbors’ flood risk mitigation – hence we find subjective NE. In contrast, after controlling for local risk exposure, we do not find any evidence that the prevalence of risk mitigation behavior in the district or municipality of respondents affects individual risk mitigation decisions, hence we find no objective NE. These differences in results between objectively and subjectively measured NE could be explained by the applied spatial distance between neighbors, which is much smaller in the latter case (direct neighbors).

Based on these findings it is concluded that NE in the immediate vicinity could play an important role in mitigating natural hazard damage. Therefore, policymakers might also consider promoting information exchange between neighbors by organizing respective events/campaigns.

Keywords: Climate Change, Neighborhood effects, Risk mitigation, Households

Exploring the relationship between worry about climate change and energy behavior
Thea Gregersen 1, 2, Rouven Doran 1, Gisela Böhm 1, 3, Wouter Poortinga 4, 5
1 Department of Psychosocial Science, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
2 Centre for climate and energy transformation (CET), University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
3 Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Lillehammer, Norway
4 Welsh School of Architecture, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom
5 School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom
Introduction: Energy behavior is an important aspect of climate change mitigation due to the share of household energy use in global greenhouse gas emissions. This presentation reports on research that explores the relationship between worry about climate change and energy behavior, based on data from Round 8 of the European Social Survey (ESS). Specifically, we focus on self-reports addressing engagement in curtailment behavior and buying of energy-efficient appliances. Method: Multilevel models were used to examine the relative strength of worry as a predictor for energy behavior compared to socio-demographic characteristics, beliefs about climate change, and perceptions about the possibility and effectiveness of changing such behaviors. Results: With regard to curtailment behavior, worry about climate change was the most important predictor, closely followed by age. Such behavior was further associated with a self-identified left-leaning political orientation, higher level of education, belief in anthropogenic causes of climate change, and with lower household income. Women reported the highest frequency of curtailment. Self-efficacy, personal outcome expectancy, and collective outcome expectancy were each associated with self-reported curtailment behavior. Regarding purchases of energy-efficient appliances, age was the most important predictor, followed by worry. Respondents with higher levels of education reported a higher likelihood of buying these appliances, as did women, those with higher household income and those believing in negative impacts of climate change. Self-efficacy, personal outcome expectancy, and collective outcome expectancy each predicted not only curtailment behavior but also a higher likelihood of purchasing energy-efficient appliances. Further analyses showed that individual differences in personal and collective outcome expectancy moderated the relationship between worry and energy behaviors. Specifically, curtailment was more strongly related to worry for those with high personal and collective outcome expectancy. Also, the association between worry and buying energy-efficient appliances was stronger among those with high collective outcome expectancy. Discussion: The goal of this research is to contribute to a better understanding of the previously established gap between worry about climate change, on the one hand, and engagement in mitigation behaviors at the individual level, on the other. Implications of the research findings for policy and communication will be discussed, with a particular focus on informational campaigns that aim to lower overall household energy use.
Keywords: climate change, energy behavior, worry, efficacy

Towards a more transparent and sustainable risk analysis > an evidence-based approach to communication and engagement
barbara gallani, Anthony Smith, Domagoj Vrbos
European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), parma, Italy
The European food safety system is preparing for the implementation of the new regulation on transparency and sustainability of risk assessment. The provisions for communication and engagement are ambitious and seek to strengthen citizens' trust in the risk analysis process, assuring a high level of protection of human health and consumers' interests. With such clear objective in mind, and being an organization with science at its core, we have decided to look at EFSA’s open dialogue and communication activities from a scientific viewpoint. During the presentation, we will seek to illustrate how social research methods are helping us in this endeavour. We will showcase three examples: i) understanding the science behind communication where our work on how to express uncertainties paved the way for a more in-depth analysis of key factors to be taken into account when considering the type and level of risk communication activities needed; ii) monitoring risk perceptions in the area of food safety where we are working with partners to understand the evolving concerns of citizens; and iii) providing a societal perspective within the context of our work, where generating stakeholder insights can improve design and implementation of new risk assessment models . The overview of our lessons learned to date and plans for the future are set to provide a space for a plenary discussion on how, and whether, the future of food safety communication and risk analysis needs scientific methods that provide understanding of those that are the ultimate beneficiaries of our science.

Keywords: Risk communication· Engagement · Social research· Risk perception · Risk assessment
Wed, 16 Jun -16:15 - 17:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Risk Communication 2

Effect of an Emergent Group on Network Efficiency in a Public Health Emergency Response: Case of 2015 MERS-CoV in Korea
Yushim Kim 1, Kangbae Lee 2, Seong Soo Oh 2, Heejin Park 2
1 Arizona State University, Phoenix, United States
2 Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South)
By planning a small roster of organizations with a high threshold for participation, emergency managers can expect benefits in efficiency and robustness from the loss of noncentral organizations during a disaster (Robinson et al., 2013). In this approach to disaster and emergency, planned/central organizations provide structure and stability to government operations. Still, the role and effect of unplanned/noncentral organizations (e.g., spontaneous, voluntary, or emergent organizations) remain unresolved in the literature. There are two competing perspectives. First, these organizations contribute positively to a crisis response by filling a gap attributable to the absence of institutionalized relations that have to be developed in important goal-oriented activities. Second, these organizations have no effect on, or can reduce, crisis response performance by becoming engaged in largely identical actions that lead to competition and conflict. We examined empirically which claim was supported in a national public health emergency response in the context of the 2015 MERS outbreak in Korea. We reconstructed the two interorganizational networks (the exchange of goods and services, the communication process) from the data in Kim and her colleagues’ (2019) study. Organizations participated in these networks were categorized, relying on the Dynes’ framework (1970): established (planned response organizations), extending (governmental or nongovernmental organizations), expanding (health professional or academic associations), and emergent (ad-hoc organizations). We then tested a set of organizations’ (extending, expanding, or emergent) effect on network performance by comparing the change of network efficiency measures (Krackhardt, 1994; Latora and Marchiori, 2001) with/without the group of organizations (similar to an impact analysis in a social network as Jones (2017) proposed). Two important findings emerged: 1) Network efficiency substantially and consistently decreased in the absence of emergent organizations in both networks. 2) The effect of extending or expanding organizations was the opposite: In the service network, network efficiency increased in the absence of a set of extending organizations (i.e., national quasi-governments) but decreased without a set of expanding organizations (i.e., public health academic associations). In the communication network, network efficiency decreased in the absence of the extending organizations but increased without the expanding organizations. These findings offer two insights. In the public health emergency response, emergent organizations can bridge needed, but absent, institutional relations, increasing network efficiency. However, the influence of extending or expanding organizations on network performance can differ depending upon the networks’ function.
Keywords: Emergent Actors, Emergency Response, Network Efficiency, MERS

Can Blockchain Technology manage Occupational Health and Safety Risks: an Aotearoa New Zealand perspective?
Felicity Lamm 1, Swati Nagar 1, Danaë Anderson 1, Lesley Gray 2, Christophe Martin 3
1 Centre for Occupational Health and Safety Research, Auckland University of Technology (AUT), Auckland, New Zealand
2 Department of Primary Health Care & General Practice, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand
3 Institut Sainte-Marie de Chavagnes and the -Institut Supérieur du Tourisme (Risks Management and Tourism), Cannes, France
Background: Globally, the construction industry has exceptionally high injury, illness and fatality rates and managing occupational health and safety (OHS) risks across the industry has traditionally been fraught with difficulties (ILO, 2019). The industry also poses a particular challenge to ensure that OHS risk controls apply to all the participants involved in the construction process (Lingard & Holmes, 2001). Some of the reasons why it continues to be difficult to manage OHS risks in this industry is that it is notoriously complex, operates within multi-layered, fractured supply chains consisting of numerous and often small subcontracting firms, undertaking a range of tasks, all on one site (Hinze, et al., 2013; Manu, et al. 2013).

More recently blockchain technology (BT) has been mooted as a way to manage OHS risks effectively in the construction industry by ensuring a transparent distribution of information across all the participants of the network in a way where no one party holds overall control of the data (Dakhli, et al., 2019; Tapscott & Vargas, 2019). However, there are mixed opinions regarding the benefits of BT; for example, it is difficult for BT to assess whether or not an external input is accurate and, like other IT systems, BT can be compromised (Turk & Klinc, 2017; Iansiti & Lakhani, 2017; Allison & Warren, 2019).

Method: The aim of this study was to review the literature on the topic and to ascertain if BT is an effective risk management tool that can be used to reduce the number of injuries, illnesses and fatalities in the construction industry? In the paper we present a pilot study undertaken in Aotearoa New Zealand that applied case study methods and systems thinking approach (Yin, 2012; Arnold & Wade, 2015), in order to identify the key success factors and barriers to introducing and sustaining BT.

Findings and Discussion: The initial findings show that small, subcontracting firms are hesitant to adopt BT as: 1) they have limited ability or time to engage with the technology; 2) the labour force in the industry is highly unregulated and its employment practices are less than transparent; and 3) significant implementation costs can negate future benefits. Nonetheless, there is an appetite by the industry to adopt BT as a way of solving problems, managing OHS risks, and ultimately achieving better project outcomes.

Keywords: managing OHS risks, construction sector, blockchain technology, supply chain

Bridging Perspectives: Risk Communication within Interdisciplinary Scientific Teams
Kelsey LaMere 1, 2, Annukka Lehikoinen 2, 3, 4, Arho Toikka 2, 5, Jussi T. Eronen 2, 3, 6, Sakari Kuikka 2, 3
1 Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Program, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
2 Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science, Helsinki, Finland
3 Ecosystems and Environment Research Program, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
4 Kotka Maritime Research Center, Kotka, Finland
5 Social and Public Policy, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
6 BIOS Research Unit, Helsinki, Finland
The concept of risk is an integral tool for understanding and solving complex socio-environmental problems. Today, the scientific teams employing this tool are becoming increasingly interdisciplinary because a diverse array of perspectives can assist in producing more creative, innovative solutions. Perspectives, built on personal experience and beliefs, influence the way each team member interprets information, allowing the team to collectively approach the problem from a variety of different angles. However, despite their value, differences in perspective can also complicate communication. In the context of risk, perspective differences leading to communication failures can be particularly problematic, hence, the proliferation of research aimed at improving risk communication between the scientific community and other groups, like decision-makers. However, differences in risk perspective within scientific teams and improving risk communication therein has rarely been addressed. We believe this topic warrants investigation because we believe the quality of scientific teams’ external risk communication likely depends on the quality of their internal risk communication. Further, improved communication within scientific teams may promote collaborative work. Therefore, we demonstrate the differences in risk perspectives within an existent interdisciplinary scientific team using structural topic modeling and interview analysis. We found clear differences in risk perspective between team members, including differences in their fundamental understandings of the concept, their risk-related interests, and particularly in their opinions about quantitative risk analysis. Interestingly, we did not find clear evidence of risk perspective homogeneity within disciplinary groups. Nevertheless, exposing the differences in risk perspective within a team to its members could serve as a starting point for cognitive integration, bridging the gaps between their perspectives and ultimately, improving problem-solving outcomes.
Keywords: Risk perspective, risk communication, cognitive integration, linguistic uncertainty
Wed, 16 Jun -16:15 - 17:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Medical Risk Analysis

Multi-objective optimization of the Finnish Colorectal Cancer Screening Programme with risk constraints
Ellie Dillon 1, Lauri Neuvonen 1, Ahti Salo 1, Maija Jäntti 2
1 Aalto University, Aalto, Finland
2 Finnish Cancer Registry, Helsinki, Finland
In Finland colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence rates have steadily increased over the last decades and as of 2017, CRC is the sixth most common cause of death. CRC is a crucial concern for the public health of Finland. Between the years of 2004 – 2006, population screening for CRC using a guaiac-based faecal occult blood test (gFOBT) was ongoing with the aim of reducing CRC mortality. However, its assessment from 2015 did not indicate the desired effect. A new screening programme using the faecal immunochemical test (FIT) began in April 2019. The FIT can be advantageous over the gFOBT as the FIT positivity cut-off level can be adjusted to adapt to a given population and available resources. We propose a newly developed methodology named Decision Programming to optimize the FIT cut-off level for specified target populations with regard to direct costs minimization and maximization of the reduction of incidence and mortality rates. Decision Programming is a novel approach to modeling discrete multi-stage decision problems under uncertainty. The results present optimal cut-off level for Finnish target groups with colonoscopy capacity constraints. Additionally, conditional value at risk values are included as constraints to account for different risk profiles of Pareto-optimal decision strategies and enforce a risk level. Finally, the estimated third-party payer costs to the newly implemented Finnish CRC Screening Programme, which have not previously been published, are presented.

Risk assessment and communication on the use of ruthenium-106 brachytherapy in a multi-disciplinary medical environment.
Niki Bergans 1, Ingele Casteels 2, Karin Haustermans 1
1 Laboratory of Experimental Radiotherapy of the Department of Oncology, KULeuven, Leuven, Belgium
2 Research Group Ophthalmology of the Department of Neurosciences, KULeuven, Leuven, Belgium
Prior to the start of a new clinical practice involving radioactive sources, it is important to do a radiation risk assessment. Based on the evaluation of the risks, the necessary precautions are than taken.

Ophthalmic plaque brachytherapy is an "eye- sparing" treatment for eye tumours. The radioisotope Rutenium-106 (Ru-106) emits β radiation with an maximum energy of 3.5 MeV and X-γ rays of energy between 0.5 and 1.6 MeV [1]. The plaque is like a metal contact lens, with lateral holes for suturing of the plaque directly onto the eyeball of the patient. This implant delivers radiation to the area of interest and attempts to minimize the risk to the surrounding ocular structures. The Ru-106 plaque remains implanted and is surgically removed after a therapeutic suitable time, defined by medical staff in advance, (usually few days).

The exposure risks for personnel and public are dependent on the nature of the source and the shielding that is used, on the type of manipulation and the security and safety measures that are taken. Possibly exposed personnel are not only the surgeon and nurses, but also workers that transport the plaques, and that clean and sterilize the plaques for re-use. Post-implantation, medical staff and public that stay nearby the implanted patient may be exposed.

Not only exposure is assessed, but also hazards arising from potential radiation accidents such as theft or loss of the source. After evaluation of all the risks, precautions are defined.

Physical precautions include: a designated workplace for cleaning and sterilization, access restriction, shielding used during transport and sterilization, the use of tweezers for manipulating the source,… Procedural precautions include the drafting of radiation protection procedures for normal working practices and also in case of incidents. Guidelines for the patient and visitors can help as a useful tool in risk communication.

The introduction of this type of therapy involves a lot of different work places (operating theater, sterilization workplace, hospitalization ward) and skills, therefore an integrated procedure was put in place, not only explaining radiation protection measures, but also containing clinical relevant info. Specific training for personnel was foreseen before first clinical use. This information should be repeated from time to time and whenever new personnel is introduced to avoid an unjustified risk perception and communication to patient, visitors and personnel not directly involved in the therapy.

Keywords: Ru-106 brachytherapy, risk assessment, radioactive source, work procedure, risk reducing measures

Smoking while using contraceptives: Risk perception and behavioral intention to quit
Femke Hilverda 1, Claudia van der Heijde 2, Peter Vonk 3
1 Department of Socio-Medical Sciences, Erasmus School of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands
2 Department of Research, Development and Prevention, Student Health Service, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
3 Department of General Practice, Student Health Service, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Combining smoking with contraceptive methods containing ethinylestradiol increases the risk at several health issues, such as thrombosis, cardiovascular diseases and pulmonary embolism, especially when women are 35 years or older. It is therefore important that women are informed about this risk at an early stage and are encouraged to either quit smoking or quit/change their contraceptive method. The aim of this study was twofold. Firstly, using the Protection Motivation theory, the predictors of the intention to quit smoking or quit/change the currently used contraceptive method were examined. Secondly, we aimed at providing insight into women’s preferred ways to be informed and possible facilitators to change their behavior. A questionnaire was sent by email to 5504 women in the age category 25-60 years old of the general practice Huisartsen Oude Turfmarkt in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. A total of 228 email-addresses appeared to be invalid. 1433 Women filled in the questionnaire (27% response rate) of whom 1251 women signed informed consent. Women aged below 25 years old (n = 96) and women who did not use the combination of smoking and ethinylestradiol-containing contraceptives (n = 1087) were excluded from analysis. A total of 68 women was included in the research sample. Preliminary results showed that the average intention to quit smoking was higher (3,26 on a 5-point scale) than the average intention to quit the currently used contraceptive method (2,47 on a 5-point scale). The predictors perceived vulnerability, education level and reason for contraceptive use significantly predicted the intention to quit smoking, while perceived self-efficacy and education level significantly predicted the intention to quit the currently used contraceptive method. This implies that risk perception of the combination stimulates women to quit smoking, while perceiving oneself capable of quitting the combination or having alternatives is related to contraceptive change or termination. A second wave of data collection is being conducted to enlarge the sample size. In addition, qualitative data collection by means of interviews with women is being conducted to provide insight into strategies to change women’s behavior. This study will offer risk communicators and health care professionals suggestions on how to inform women about the risks of combining smoking with contraceptive methods containing ethinylestradiol, ultimately resulting in less women using this combination.
Keywords: Smoking, Contraceptives, Risk perception
Wed, 16 Jun -16:15 - 17:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Systemic Analysis of Risk Information

Perception of Chemical Household Products and Their Risks
Kim Buchmüller, Angela Bearth, Michael Siegrist
Consumer Behavior, Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
Accidents with chemical household products are frequent, especially involving young children. Chemical household products are not only critical due to their toxicity when accidentally swallowed, but can also be dangerous when inhaled or, for corrosive substances, when skin contact occurs. Additionally, a considerable number of these substances are flammable. Usually, these accidents are due to a lack of awareness of the risks involved with these products resulting in unsafe behaviour. Not only the way these products are used can be problematic, but also the choices made when buying such products, the storage of these products and the disposal of the products. Typical errors are that lay people erroneously buy a product believing it is safer although it is not or are not aware that they are storing potentially dangerous products in reach of children.

This project is organized in three phases. Firstly, a comparative survey (N = 5631, roughly n = 700 per country) between eight European countries was conducted. This survey showed differences between the eight countries regarding knowledge of the GHS pictograms, risk perception and locus of control. For all countries it could be shown that consumers use analytical and heuristic strategies to judge the risks of a chemical household product. Secondly, an in-depth survey (N = 1255) focussing on the perception of chemical household products was conducted in Switzerland. It could be shown that risk perception as well as age and cultural background have an impact on self-evaluation of behaviour. Further, although most participants judge their own behaviour being safer compared to other people, important lack of knowledge and breaches of safety recommendations were noted. Next, a laboratory study (N = 167) was conducted in order to reduce effects of social desirability encountered with surveys. Virtual reality was used as this technique allows to expose participants to standardized risk situations without endangering them, opening new possibilities for risk research. Additionally, eye tracking was included, allowing to examine factors participants are not aware of. First results will be presented.

Keywords: household chemicals, health risk

Can graphical displays really improve the communication of financial risk information?
Danni Zhang, Ian Dawson, Ming-Chien Sung, Tiejun Ma
Centre for Risk Research, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
Insufficient understanding of financial risks can cause individuals making poor financial decisions, and this can have substantial deleterious effects on their wealth, health and psychological well-being. Therefore, it is crucial to promote better engagement and comprehension of risk-related financial information.

While evidence shows that numerical information processing and comprehension are significantly influenced by presentation formats (e.g., graphical vs. textual formats), there is mixed evidence on the efficacy of the different formats. For example, some, but not all research shows that lay individuals who view textual-based formats develop a better comprehension of financial risk information than individuals who view graphical formats. However, none of the extant studies has explored why an individual’s comprehension of financial information might be hindered by graphical presentations or how such formats could be better designed to improve comprehension.

To address this knowledge gap, 40 participants were asked to process financial information presented using two types of graphical displays (i.e., risk of financial loss from stocks presented using icon arrays; mortgage repayment risks presented using text and bar charts). Think-aloud and think-after methods were employed to collect data on the participants’ levels of comprehension, cognitive processes, and judgments. Verbal protocol analysis revealed that graphical formats were more useful to communicate gist information (general risk impression) than the verbatim information (precise risk information). That is, graphical formats more effectively helped participants to make comparisons between different pieces of financial data and to quickly identify key information. However, in terms of generating deeper insights into financial risk, the results showed that more effortful graph interpretation was required by the participants and that this was most effective when supported by written text. Furthermore, our participants emphasised that textual information was their preferred format for receiving financial risk information. Participants reasoned that textual formats provided more precise information and were easier to interpret, and that the integrations and interpretations that were required to understand the graphical formats increased the likelihood of making errors. Moreover, our study found that although arresting colours appeared helpful in the information identification process, they also elicited disproportionate attentional weighting and emotional reactions. That is, red bars (cf. green bars) were viewed as a warning signal and this led to heightened concerns about risk. Similarly, black icons (cf. grey icons) increased the salience of financial losses, which then contributed to heightened risk awareness. These findings can be utilised to improve financial risk communications.

Keywords: presentation formats, icon arrays, bar charts, financial risk communication.

The Evolution of Information and Communication Technology for Inclusive Risk Governance in the New Age of Intelligent Technology
Shuhua Monica Liu
The Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam, Germany
Over the last two decades, governments all over the world have tried to take advantage of information and communication technology (ICT) to improve emergency operations and crisis management. Adoption of new ICT has increased in most countries, but at the same time, the rate of successful adoption and operation varies from country to country.

This article outlines the evolution of ICT in the public sector specifically in emergency management services over the past 20 years using social network analysis and statistical analysis. Employing The Disaster Information Reference Library, version 1.0 (released by September 1st, 2019), we aim to present general trends by examining interactions and mutual shaping processes between ICT evolution and several inter-related emergency management and service changes including crisis operations, emergency services delivery, citizen government interactions, emergency policy and decision making, and crisis service reform.

The authors suggest that within a short time period, new ICT has evolved rapidly from rudimentary uses of ICTs as simple tools to support highly structured emergency service work to the integration of ICT throughout government crisis operations. The growing use of Web 2.0, social media, and new intelligent technology by citizens can also heavily impact the way emergency services are delivered and how citizen engagement processes are carried out. However, new management approaches, governance structures, and policy frameworks are still missing, posing a challenge for governments to operate effectively during crises in the age of big data and artificial intelligence. However, systematic analyses are still needed to understand the interactions among stakeholders and ICTs and co-create the institutional environment to lead to a positive impact of ICT on emergency management and crisis response. Only when this relationship is clearly understood can innovative ICTs be seamlessly integrated into the new risk governance structure.

Wed, 16 Jun -16:15 - 17:00
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Industrial Systems

Uncertainty, transparency and dependencies in scenario analysis for risk assessments: applications to nuclear waste management
Edoardo Tosoni 1, 2, Ahti Salo 1, Enrico Zio 2
1 Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
2 Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy
Licensing decisions on safety-critical systems are informed by risk assessments that ascertain whether the expected impact on the public is acceptably low. This can prove a very demanding task, especially because it is hard to evaluate the comprehensiveness of the scenarios that are generated for characterizing the uncertain evolution of the system.

With particular regard to nuclear waste repositories, we start by recognizing the main methodological challenges in scenario analysis. Hence, we address these by developing probabilistic methodologies that improve the systematization of scenario analysis towards the achievement of comprehensiveness.

First, we build a Bayesian network showing the dependencies between the factors which significant affect the system. Probabilities are obtained from computational simulations and illustrative experts beliefs about a planned nuclear waste repository in Belgium. The related uncertainty is characterized by admitting regions of feasible probability values rather than crisp ones. Through multilinear programming, uncertainty is propagated for estimating bounds on the radiological risk. The novel Adaptive Bayesian Sampling algorithm helps prioritize which scenarios to simulate for reducing the width of the risk interval. Against this background, we propose a generalized interpretation such that, in probabilistic approaches, comprehensiveness is achieved if the risk interval is far from the acceptable risk limit (which does not hold in the case study at hand).

Then, we tackle the same case study without the Bayesian network and its predetermined causalities between the system factors. Rather, nondirected dependencies between pairs of factors and outcomes thereof are quantified by probabilistic cross-impact ratios. Uncertainty is modeled through bounds on these ratios and the marginal probabilities for the factors’ outcomes. In this case, the corresponding risk interval is calculated with nonlinear programming. Results highlight that ignoring systemic dependencies can lead to underestimating risk considerably.

Finally, because focusing on the aggregated risk level can pose concerns of transparency, the riskiest scenarios must also be identified. To this end, we extend traditional component-oriented risk importance measures to scenarios. The novel measures enable the analysis of systems whose factors do not have a performance function and should be examined together rather than individually. Thus, in two literature case studies, we identify which scenarios contribute most to the aggregated risk or imply the largest impact if they occur.

Our findings emphasize that three cornerstones in scenario analysis are the characterization of uncertainty, the assurance of transparency and the quantification of system dependencies.

Keywords: Scenarios, systems, uncertainty

A simulation-based event tree model for the human operations in a NPP cable fire scenario
Tero Tyrväinen, Terhi Kling, Timo Korhonen
Modelling of the human operations increase realism and reduce conservatism in the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of a nuclear power plant (NPP). In this work, we apply a simulation-based event tree of FinPSA (a PRA tool) to calculate the probability of fire suppression by plant fire brigade before a cable damage. The same scenario has earlier been evaluated using a separate spreadsheet, but a more practical approach was needed for fire PRA.

The main components of the method are Monte Carlo fire simulations and a stochastic operation time model for firefighting. The fire simulations were performed separately using deterministic Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), and the results of the simulations were imported to FinPSA. The stochastic operation time model was implemented in FinPSA scripts in eight parts corresponding to different operational phases, including fire detection, guard centre actions, control room actions and fire brigade actions. The FinPSA results were validated using the old method.

FinPSA proved to be a good tool for this type of modelling. It offers better model structure, better readability and better maintainability than the old method. Developing complex computation rules is much easier in the script files of FinPSA than it is in the spreadsheet. FinPSA is therefore considered a useful and practical tool for fire PRA.

Keywords: probabilistic risk analysis, fire PRA, simulation-based event tree

Risk-informed graded approach to the regulatory oversight of nuclear facilities
Jan-Erik Holmberg, Ari Julin, Ilkka Niemelä, Tapani Virolainen
Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Helsinki, Finland
The IAEA Safety Glossary (2018 Edition, International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna) defines the “graded approach” for a system of control, such as a regulatory system or a safety system, a process or method in which the stringency of the control measures and conditions to be applied is commensurate, to the extent practicable, with the likelihood and possible consequences of, and the level of risk associated with, a loss of control. As such, this safety principle is generally followed in the safety management of nuclear facilities all over the world. As an example, the safety classification of structures, systems and components (SSC) sets the quality assurance requirements for the design, manufacturing, installation, operation and maintenance of the items of nuclear installations. There are, however, differences in the nationally applied safety classification systems.

Although the graded approach can be regarded as an obvious principle to optimize the allocation of resources, its practical implementation is far from self-evident. Among other things, the challenges lie in the difficulty to objectively assess the safety importance of an item as well as in the plurality of items (targets of the regulatory oversight) that are subject to grading. In other words, the scope of grading does not only cover structures, systems and components but also various safety-related activities, processes, documents, events, etc., during the whole life cycle of the system (nuclear installation).

In the Finnish nuclear safety regulatory system, there is a trend to apply more risk-informed approach in the regulatory oversight — in comparison to the traditional deterministic approach. It means, e.g., use of insights from probabilistic risk analysis to support grading of oversight activities. This presentation will discuss the current state-of-the-practice of the graded approach to the regulatory oversight in Finland, including challenges with the risk-informed graded approach.

Keywords: Graded approach, risk-informed decision making, nuclear safety, regulatory oversight
Wed, 16 Jun -17:15 - 17:30
Freestanding Oral Presentation - Concluding Session